{"id":569442,"date":"2026-07-31T23:20:24","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T23:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/569442\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T23:20:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T23:20:24","slug":"polls-blocs-and-mergers-setting-the-stage-for-israel-election-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/569442\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls, blocs and mergers: Setting the stage for Israel Election 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 25th\u00a0Knesset<\/a> dissolved itself two weeks ago, formally opening a campaign that will end with national elections on Oct. 27. The outgoing parliament became the first since 1988 to complete a full term, a point coalition whip Ofir Katz underscored as lawmakers adjourned: \u201cUltimately, despite everything that was said, this Knesset is completing its full term.\u201d<\/p>\n

The election date is fixed; the political map is not. Gadi Eisenkot\u2019s Yashar and Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s Likud are fighting for first place across much of the mainstream polling, but the size and sometimes even the direction of the gap depends heavily on the pollster.<\/p>\n

A July 5\u00a0Kan\u00a0survey put the two parties level at 23 Knesset seats each, while a\u00a0Maariv\u00a0poll published a week later gave Yashar a narrow 23-22 advantage. A polling average published by Statista on July 15, aggregating seven major Israeli media poll series, placed Likud ahead at 24.6 seats to Yashar\u2019s 21.9.\u00a0Channel 14\u2019s Filber polls, meanwhile, have consistently produced a substantially stronger result for Netanyahu\u2019s camp. One mid-July survey gave Likud 33 seats and Yashar 21.<\/p>\n

Gayil Talshir from the Department of Political Science at the Hebrew University explained that although having the largest party does not guarantee a coalition, it\u2019s still an important factor that increases the chances of electoral victory. \u201cEven though in Israeli politics, what is important is getting to the majority out of 120 seats, not the biggest party, the psychological effect is that people want to vote for the winner, which pushes them to the bigger party,\u201d Talshir explained in a previous interview with JNS.<\/p>\n

The differences are not confined to the contest for first place. Surveys generally place Netanyahu\u2019s current coalition parties in the low-to-mid 50s, short of the 61 seats required for a majority, while the opposition often reaches the mid-to-high 50s. However,\u00a0Channel 14\u2019s polls have shown the coalition crossing the 60-seat threshold with as many as 65 seats. Most polls also show Arab parties together frequently accounting for roughly another 10 seats. At the same time, several smaller parties are hovering around Israel\u2019s 3.25% electoral threshold, meaning shifts of a few tenths of a percentage point could determine whether roughly four lawmakers enter the Knesset or disappear from the seat allocation entirely.<\/p>\n

The campaign is therefore developing along interconnected fronts. Netanyahu is trying to preserve a clearly defined governing bloc under growing internal strain, Eisenkot is seeking to consolidate a competitive but fragmented opposition, and a rapidly forming collection of smaller parties may ultimately determine which side can reach 61.<\/p>\n

The coalition<\/p>\n

Netanyahu enters the campaign with the most clearly defined governing bloc, but the political arrangements required to preserve it are increasingly generating pressure within his own base. The clearest evidence has come from a series of departures centered largely on the Haredi conscription dispute. Veteran Likud lawmaker Yuli Edelstein announced on July 3 that he was leaving the party, declaring: \u201cI don\u2019t intend to run in the Likud primary. I\u2019ll set off on a new political path.\u201d Likud MK Dan Illouz subsequently announced his own departure, while MK Sharren Haskel recently resigned as deputy foreign minister and then launched a new right-wing party.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Likud is fighting an unusually public battle over control of its own electoral slate. Netanyahu initially sought as many as 10 reserved positions for candidates of his choosing before a compromise granted him eight, including six among the first 20 places. The arrangement gives the party chairman substantially more direct influence than in 2022. Opposition from senior party figures, including David Bitan, turned the procedural dispute into a broader struggle over internal power, while the Lod District Court intervened on July 16 to halt a planned Central Committee vote following petitions arguing that Likud\u2019s wider membership had not been given a proper opportunity to participate.<\/p>\n

The eventual slate will therefore provide an early indication of whether Likud remains primarily shaped through its activist and membership structures or moves further toward a ticket constructed by Netanyahu himself. The party\u2019s primary has already been repeatedly postponed amid the dispute, adding another layer of uncertainty to a campaign in which several former or current right-wing figures are exploring political alternatives outside Likud.<\/p>\n

The Haredi parties remain indispensable to Netanyahu\u2019s political formula. Shas and United Torah Judaism constitute a central component of Netanyahu\u2019s bloc, but their demands over conscription have become one of its principal sources of political strain. In the Knesset\u2019s final legislative push, the coalition approved measures recognizing\u00a0Torah study<\/a>\u00a0as a foundational state value and halting arrests and enforcement against qualifying\u00a0Haredi draft dodgers<\/a>. The High Court froze implementation of the latter almost immediately.<\/p>\n

The legislation reflected pressure from within the Haredi parties themselves. United Torah Judaism\u2019s Moshe Gafni, pressing for action on the Torah-study legislation, warned: \u201cI want to know whether they are going all the way with the bill; I am tired of promises.\u201d Yet concessions intended to secure the Haredi parties carry an electoral cost elsewhere. Edelstein\u2019s, Illouz\u2019s and Haskel\u2019s breaks with the governing camp demonstrate that opposition to the current draft policy extends into the Zionist right.<\/p>\n

Netanyahu\u2019s other right-wing partners present a different challenge. Itamar Ben-Gvir\u2019s Otzma Yehudit has remained comparatively stable in recent polling, making it a relatively secure component of the bloc. Bezalel Smotrich\u2019s Religious Zionism is more vulnerable, moving between six mandates to below the electoral threshold across different surveys even as Smotrich continues to advance the government\u2019s settlement agenda, including the July approval of funding for 34 new communities in\u00a0Judea and Samaria<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The resulting dilemma is central to Netanyahu\u2019s campaign. He begins with the election\u2019s clearest coalition structure, but satisfying every component of that bloc may make it harder to recover the additional voters, and potentially the additional partner, needed to reach 61 seats.<\/p>\n

The opposition<\/p>\n

The opposition enters the campaign in an unusual position: In much of the mainstream polling, its combined electorate is larger than Netanyahu\u2019s governing bloc, but its path from electoral strength to a functioning coalition remains unclear. At the center of that puzzle is Gadi Eisenkot.<\/p>\n

Recent polling has placed Yashar either ahead of, tied with or narrowly behind Netanyahu\u2019s party, a significant shift from the beginning of the election cycle, when Naftali Bennett was generally regarded as Netanyahu\u2019s leading rival. The trend is clear: Eisenkot has moved to the center of the contest over who will lead the alternative government.<\/p>\n

His political advantage is that his appeal is not confined neatly to the traditional center-left. A former IDF chief of staff with a hawkish security reputation, Eisenkot can compete for centrist voters while also presenting himself as a plausible option for more center-right voters seeking an alternative to Netanyahu. His security credentials, personal\u00a0wartime<\/a>\u00a0losses<\/a>\u00a0and undefined platform make him a strong neutral alternative for the politically homeless. Eisenkot has deliberately reinforced that broad positioning, declaring: \u201cI will be the prime minister of all Israelis.\u201d<\/p>\n

His ascent has come at the expense of the political primacy once held by Bennett and Lapid\u2019s\u00a0Together<\/a>\u00a0alliance. Their April merger initially produced strong polling, with one early survey placing the new list ahead of Likud. Since then, however, Together has fallen into the mid-to-high teens.<\/p>\n

The polling does not prove that the merger itself caused Bennett\u2019s decline, but it has altered the political proposition he offers voters. Before joining with Lapid, Bennett occupied a relatively distinct position: a right-wing former prime minister seeking to replace Netanyahu without presenting himself as part of the traditional center-left opposition. The merger created a larger unified list, but it also undermined Bennett\u2019s already shaky right-wing credentials. At the same time, Eisenkot\u2019s rise has given voters seeking a broadly centrist, security-oriented alternative another option that currently polls substantially better.<\/p>\n

Regardless of who holds the mantle in the final vote count, the eventual leader will face a difficult challenge of cobbling together a coalition from an incredibly broad ideological array. Avigdor Liberman\u2019s Yisrael Beiteinu dominates the right flank of the current opposition and remains a substantial component of any anti-Netanyahu majority. Once identified primarily with immigrants from the former Soviet Union, Yisrael Beiteinu has broadened into a political home for secular, right-wing and security-hawkish voters, and polls at roughly nine to 10 seats in most recent surveys. Liberman\u2019s refusal to countenance Netanyahu is firm, but so are his coalition restrictions. Liberman has said that \u201cthere is no place for non-Zionist forces in the next government, neither Arab parties nor Haredi parties.\u201d That position strengthens the opposition numerically while making one possible route to a majority, bringing Haredi parties into a post-Netanyahu coalition, practically impossible.<\/p>\n

On the left flank, the Democrats Party creates a different form of coalition tension. The party remains an important source of opposition seats, receiving 11 in the latest\u00a0Channel 13\u00a0poll. However, multiple statements by Chairman Yair Golan and other party members have made a coalition with right-wing opposition parties a contentious proposition. In 2025,\u00a0Golan<\/a>\u00a0spoke of the IDF \u201ckill[ing]babies as a hobby,\u201d drawing condemnation not only from the coalition but from Bennett, Liberman, Gantz and Lapid. Furthermore, a general platform defined by socialist economic policies and support for a Palestinian state is a clear point of political friction that the opposition needs to overcome to reach 61.<\/p>\n

The minor parties<\/p>\n

With the two principal blocs separated by a handful of seats in most polls, the election could be decided less by movement between Likud and Yashar than by which smaller parties survive. Israel\u2019s 3.25% threshold turns that question into a particularly high-stakes calculation as a party that narrowly crosses it can contribute four or more seats to coalition arithmetic, while one that narrowly fails effectively removes its voters from the distribution of mandates.<\/p>\n

Yoaz Hendel and Hilli Tropper\u2019s new party, Yesodot Yisrael, occupies exactly this position in the center space. Their alliance draws heavily on the language of military service and civic responsibility, and says its objective is \u201ca broad Zionist government.\u201d That positioning potentially places it as a bridge between Eisenkot\u2019s opposition and voters on the right dissatisfied with the current coalition. The latest\u00a0Zman Yisrael\u00a0survey left it below the threshold.<\/p>\n

Potentially more disruptive to Likud\u2019s electoral prospects is the emerging anti-Netanyahu right. Yuli Edelstein\u2019s departure from Likud has intensified talks surrounding a possible new list involving figures including former Likud Minister\u00a0Gilad Erdan<\/a>\u00a0and former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked. The political proposition is not another centrist party but a party based on Likud\u2019s platform, but without Netanyahu. Erdan vehemently defended this point, saying, \u201cI am not a centrist; I am firmly on the right,\u201d in a recent interview. A\u00a0Kan\u00a0scenario found an Edelstein-Shaked-Erdan list winning six seats and reducing Netanyahu\u2019s bloc from 53 to 50. Such a party could therefore become both a vehicle for right-wing voters unwilling to support Netanyahu and, after the election, a kingmaker sought by the major blocs.<\/p>\n

Moshe Feiglin\u2019s Zehut occupies a more ideologically distinctive space than most of the new parties competing around the threshold. Feiglin has billed his party as \u201ca political home for Israel\u2019s religious and nationalist sector.\u201d Its platform combines nationalist and religious positions with a strongly libertarian, free-market agenda. Feiglin has also made dissatisfaction with the conduct of the war central to his campaign, criticizing the government for failing to decisively defeat Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran and maintaining strategic dependence on the United States.<\/p>\n

That combination of economic libertarianism and a more uncompromising security doctrine gives Zehut a constituency distinct from the largely centrist new parties elsewhere in the race. With at least one June Midgam survey placing Zehut near the electoral threshold, the party could either add another right-wing faction to the Knesset or, if it falls narrowly short, leave a significant number of right-wing votes unrepresented.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 25th\u00a0Knesset dissolved itself two weeks ago, formally opening a campaign that will end with national elections on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":569443,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-569442","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=569442"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569442\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/569443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=569442"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=569442"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=569442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}