It\u2019s raised fresh alarm over the pressure facing borrowers after three interest rate hikes this year, plus previous years of soaring living costs and stubborn inflation.<\/p>\n
The research by Digital Finance Analytics, done for comparison group OurTop10, indicated households were running out of a buffer of emergency funds, leaving them vulnerable to more rate hikes.<\/p>\n
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Digital Finance Analytics director Martin North said many households were financially underwater. Picture: Hollie Adams<\/p>\n
Digital Finance Analytics director Martin North said this pressure was most acute for those who bought homes in recent years<\/a>. Recent buyers had often stretched themselves too far to pay lofty house prices, he said.<\/p>\n Many of these buyers had spent years burning through savings after purchasing their homes and had reached a \u201ctipping point\u201d, Mr North explained.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is more about time in cash flow stress <\/a>than anything else,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cMore households are net monthly underwater \u2026 Banks have been actively intervening \u2013 through hardship schemes, interest only and refinance schemes \u2013 to avoid registering a default. <\/p>\n \u201cHowever, despite this, some segments, including those with bigger loans<\/a>, and those funded by small business, are emerging problems. <\/p>\n \u201cWe are seeing more hotspots now, and this looks more serious because there is no short-term exit from the current adverse economic settings.\u201d<\/p>\n The OurTop10 reporting pointed to a differing reality for mortgage holders across states:<\/p>\n VICTORIA<\/p>\n Victoria\u2019s most stretched postcodes with highest default risk<\/a><\/p>\n Three rate hikes since the start of 2026 have added more than 74,000 Victorian households to the hundreds of thousands already struggling with mortgage stress. <\/p>\n DFA mortgage surveys showed 611,311 homeowners across the state were battling to keep their residence as of July, following Reserve Bank hikes in February, March and May, compared to 536,984 in January.<\/p>\n RBA Governor Michele Bullock will announce the latest monetary policy decision next Tuesday. Picture: John Appleyard<\/p>\n Victoria\u2019s top 10 postcodes at risk of mortgage default were dominated by Melbourne\u2019s outer suburbs. <\/p>\n These areas lead Australia\u2019s list of hotspots where people were in danger of losing their homes.<\/p>\n Mr North said a significant chunk of Melbourne homeowners susceptible to defaulting on their mortgages would have bought when the market peaked in 2021.<\/p>\n But they\u2019ve since experienced no or little capital growth, especially in high population growth corridors, which would mean a forced sale could be catastrophic.<\/p>\n QUEENSLAND<\/p>\n Queensland\u2019s new mortgage default hotspots<\/a><\/p>\n Thousands of Queensland families have been plunged into severe mortgage stress, sparking warnings of an impending wave of loan defaults and forced sales.<\/p>\n More than 9,500 households sank into negative cash flow in just three months \u2014 the second-highest net jump in the country behind Western Australia.<\/p>\n Years of soaring housing entry costs have dialled up the risk for mortgage holders in Brisbane.<\/p>\n The surge brings Queensland\u2019s total number of stressed households across its top-ranked postcodes to 74,649.<\/p>\n Financial stress levels in the Sunshine State were third nationally behind Victoria and NSW for total volume of distressed borrowers. The outer suburbs of Brisbane bore the brunt of the squeeze.<\/p>\n Mr North warned today\u2019s cashflow pressure lit the fuse for tomorrow\u2019s loan failures, with recent buyers facing the heaviest strain.<\/p>\n \u201cIn Brisbane in particular, we saw a massive price rise, so debt-to-income is high and two incomes are now the norm,\u201d Mr North said.<\/p>\n \u201cRecent first-time buyers and people who traded up recently are under the most pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n NEW SOUTH WALES<\/p>\n NSW postcodes with highest default risk revealed<\/a><\/p>\n NSW saw a 25 per cent jump in mortgage default risk in the three month period.<\/p>\n The Default Loan Report by OurTop10<\/a> estimated almost 4,000 NSW households were close to defaulting in just the 10 most stretched postcodes alone.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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