{"id":582015,"date":"2026-08-12T02:28:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T02:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/582015\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T02:28:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T02:28:23","slug":"iran-is-bleeding-badly-trump-bets-economic-pain-will-force-tehran-to-surrender","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/582015\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran is \u2018bleeding badly\u2019: Trump bets economic pain will force Tehran to surrender"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\u2018I\u2019m<\/a>\"\u2018I\u2019m<\/p>\n

\u2018I\u2019m their banker\u2019: Trump bets Iran\u2019s collapsing economy can deliver victory without new strikes <\/p>\n

(Photo: Shutterstock, REUTERS\/Kevin Lamarque)<\/p>\n

In an interview Tuesday with conservative television network Real America\u2019s Voice, Trump outlined what he described as two \u201cvery powerful strategies\u201d for dealing with Iran.<\/p>\n

One, he said, would be to \u201chit them really, really hard,\u201d an option he has so far avoided amid concern over possible Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil infrastructure and shortages of some U.S. munitions and interceptors.<\/p>\n

The second is to defeat Iran economically by maintaining the blockade and sanctions.<\/p>\n

Trump described that approach as simply allowing the pressure to continue while watching conditions inside Iran deteriorate.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have 300% inflation, their currency is worth almost nothing. They\u2019re not paying their soldiers, their soldiers are leaving,\u201d he said. \u201cSo you just keep it going, because it\u2019s not sustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cEconomically, they\u2019re in chaos,\u201d Trump added.<\/p>\n

He also referred to Iranian assets frozen abroad, which Tehran has demanded be released as part of negotiations.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u201cThey can\u2019t borrow money. We control their money,\u201d Trump said. \u201cWhat they have, and they had a lot, we have total control of it. I\u2019m their banker. I\u2019m their banker!\u201d<\/p>\n

The central question is whether Iran\u2019s leadership, which emerged from the latest war more radicalized and believes its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz gives it major strategic leverage, will eventually soften its position under economic pressure.<\/p>\n

If it does not, and Trump ultimately decides to resume major military operations, some analysts believe such a move would be more likely after the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. Renewed fighting before then could further complicate Republican efforts to retain control of Congress.<\/p>\n

Iranian officials are not hiding the severity of the economic crisis, while hardship among ordinary citizens continues to deepen.<\/p>\n

So far, however, there are few visible signs of renewed mass protest. Memories remain fresh of the brutal suppression of the enormous demonstrations that erupted in January over the economic crisis and soaring inflation.<\/p>\n

Tens of thousands of protesters were killed in that crackdown by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Basij militia, which emerged from the war with even greater influence and are now widely viewed as the real centers of power in Tehran.<\/p>\n

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, considered relatively moderate but politically weak, has repeatedly warned that the economic crisis could trigger \u201csocial instability,\u201d effectively a renewed wave of protests.<\/p>\n

Last month, amid a pause in mutual attacks between Iran and the United States, he declared that the economy had become the country\u2019s \u201cmain battlefield.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"<\/a>\"<\/p>\n

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran\u2019s economy becomes \u2018the main battlefield\u2019<\/p>\n

Pezeshkian said he recently raised the issue during a meeting with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei that lasted seven to eight hours.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe discussed all the country\u2019s issues, and naturally the main concerns were people\u2019s living conditions, the state of the economy, employment, housing and the problems currently caused by the sanctions,\u201d he told Iranian media Monday.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s economy has been in crisis for years, due in part to the sanctions Trump restored during his first term after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018.<\/p>\n

But sanctions are only part of the story.<\/p>\n

Economic mismanagement, corruption and the diversion of enormous resources toward the Revolutionary Guards and armed groups across the Middle East have also contributed to the country\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n

Conditions worsened sharply following last year\u2019s war in June and deteriorated further during the current conflict, which began in late February and has now continued for six months without a clear end.<\/p>\n

Over the past year, the decline appears to have accelerated across virtually every economic indicator.<\/p>\n

According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran\u2019s economy is expected to contract by 5.6% this year, its steepest decline since 1988.<\/p>\n

Iranian authorities say annual inflation has reached 88.6%, while food prices have risen 130% in a single year.<\/p>\n

The rial fell to a record low early this month of 1.9 million to the dollar. It has since recovered slightly to around 1.88 million per dollar, but remains roughly 20% weaker than at the start of the war.<\/p>\n

\"\u05d8\u05d4\u05e8\u05df<\/a>\"\u05d8\u05d4\u05e8\u05df<\/p>\n

A giant billboard on a street in Tehran depicts the ‘hand of Iran’ gripping the Strait of Hormuz <\/p>\n

(Photo: ATTA KENARE \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s official statistics agency has also reported that the country\u2019s \u201cmisery index,\u201d which combines inflation and unemployment, hit a record 91.1 in the spring, more than double last year\u2019s level.<\/p>\n

Unemployment reportedly rose to around 7% in the first quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n

Iranian statistics officials say the country lost 630,000 industrial jobs during that quarter. Deputy Labor Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohammadi has said the war has caused roughly 1 million job losses overall in a country of about 92 million people.<\/p>\n

A major source of the economic damage has been Iran\u2019s loss of oil-export capacity.<\/p>\n

Exports were first disrupted during 40 days of fighting with Israel and the United States, and later by the American naval blockade.<\/p>\n

The blockade began April 13, was suspended June 18 following a memorandum of understanding and resumed July 14 after that agreement collapsed.<\/p>\n

Oil revenue accounted for around 11% of Iran\u2019s GDP before the war.<\/p>\n

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimates the blockade is costing Iran\u2019s economy around $435 million per day.<\/p>\n

In a recent analysis, the Washington-based institute said Iran\u2019s economy had already begun \u201cunraveling\u201d late last year and argued that the blockade was accelerating the process.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe U.S. naval blockade has proven to be the most precise economic pressure tool deployed so far,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

\"\u05d0\u05d9\u05e8\u05d0\u05df<\/a>\"\u05d0\u05d9\u05e8\u05d0\u05df<\/p>\n

The Iranian rial, down 20% since the start of the war <\/p>\n

(Photo: AFP)<\/p>\n

Those figures translate into severe hardship for millions of Iranians, something the regime fears could eventually ignite another uprising.<\/p>\n

Even ILNA, a semi-official news agency associated with a state-linked labor organization, has recently carried increasingly stark accounts of the crisis.<\/p>\n

The government has warned that worsening conditions may force it to reduce fuel subsidies, a move that has triggered protests in the past.<\/p>\n

Albert Baghezian, an economics professor in Tehran, told ILNA that the Iranian economy resembles \u201ca patient suffering from severe bleeding.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cDelivering a gasoline shock would be equivalent to a fatal blow to people\u2019s livelihoods,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

ILNA has reported that increasing numbers of Iranians are turning to credit applications that allow purchases to be paid off over longer periods.<\/p>\n

A 29-year-old Tehran resident said he uses dozens of such apps \u201cbecause you simply can\u2019t afford to pay for everything at once.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other workers told the agency that around 40% of their salaries go toward rent and another 40% toward credit repayments.<\/p>\n

Students are increasingly relying on the same services amid what ILNA described as an unpredictable employment outlook and unstable incomes.<\/p>\n

But those credit systems also impose penalties and fees when payments are missed.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fines just keep piling up,\u201d a man named Hossein said. \u201cThe fear that you won\u2019t have money and will fall behind on payments really tortures you.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many Iranian workers are employed under temporary contracts or move repeatedly in and out of employment, further reducing their chances of keeping up with debt repayments.<\/p>\n

Workers interviewed by ILNA said only a minority have health insurance, meaning even a relatively routine medical problem can wipe out their income.<\/p>\n

Iran is also facing a rapidly worsening housing crisis.<\/p>\n

Government figures show construction costs have doubled over the past year, feeding directly into higher rents.<\/p>\n

Some local authorities have attempted to cap rent increases, including a 27% ceiling in Tehran Province, but such restrictions are often poorly enforced.<\/p>\n

\u201cRental prices continue to rise, construction costs have surged, purchasing power has weakened and residential property transactions remain at a low point,\u201d the Iranian news agency ISNA reported.<\/p>\n

Labor organizations increasingly accuse the government of abandoning workers during the war.<\/p>\n

\u201cIranian workers, and construction workers in particular, have been forgotten and left helpless at the mercy of fate,\u201d said Hassan Azati, head of a construction workers\u2019 union in Baneh.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll their efforts are focused on one thing only: staying alive.\u201d<\/p>\n

Azati estimated that half of the construction workforce in Baneh lacks health insurance.<\/p>\n

Some workers are so desperate, he said, that they have turned to work as kolbars, laborers who carry smuggled goods across Iran\u2019s borders, sometimes through minefields left from the Iran-Iraq War.<\/p>\n

Despite the economic pressure, it remains far from certain that Iran\u2019s hard-line leadership will compromise.<\/p>\n

Tehran now views control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil consumption passed before the war, as a strategic asset comparable in importance to its nuclear program.<\/p>\n

Last week, optimism briefly grew that an agreement to reopen the waterway could soon be reached.<\/p>\n

\"Iran\u2019s<\/a>\"Iran\u2019s<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, insisting on Tehran\u2019s surrender terms <\/p>\n

(Photo: AP)<\/p>\n

Iran then declared that an arrangement with neighboring Oman would not be enough and presented Washington with a series of sweeping conditions.<\/p>\n

Mohsen Rezaei, Iran\u2019s newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, reiterated those demands Tuesday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe United States is the cause of instability in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman,\u201d he said. \u201cAmerica endangered the entire region by imposing an illegal war on Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the United States changes its behavior and accepts Iran\u2019s conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rezaei said Washington must end the war, release frozen Iranian funds and end fighting across the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza, along with fulfilling additional demands conveyed through intermediaries.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf an agreement is reached between Iran and Oman concerning passage through the Strait of Hormuz, that agreement will be separate from the issue of closing the strait,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

What is unfolding now resembles a waiting game, with both Trump and Iran hoping the other side will give way first.<\/p>\n

Richard Nephew, a Columbia University scholar who helped formulate Iran sanctions policy during the Obama administration, told the Associated Press that sanctions generally require significant time before producing political results.<\/p>\n

He also argued that Trump has failed to define clear strategic objectives for the conflict.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump has repeatedly weakened his own hand by using force insufficiently, articulating the objective unclearly and hesitating in negotiations,\u201d Nephew said.<\/p>\n

Trump continues to insist that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon remains his central goal.<\/p>\n

But reports suggest he may ultimately accept a settlement without significant new restrictions on Iran\u2019s nuclear program if Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing fuel prices to fall before the November midterms.<\/p>\n

A U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal this week that reopening Hormuz is now the administration\u2019s main policy focus.<\/p>\n

If Trump continues relying on economic warfare, an approach the White House previously called \u201cOperation Economic Fury,\u201d analysts say the pressure could eventually prove powerful.<\/p>\n

But they also stress that it will take time.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe central question is how far the United States is prepared to go to reduce Iran\u2019s oil trade and threaten severe sanctions against third countries, and whether it has the patience to see if economic suffering causes the regime to change its behavior,\u201d said Juan Zarate, a former national security official in the George W. Bush administration.<\/p>\n

\"Hormuz<\/a>\"Hormuz<\/p>\n

A senior U.S. administration official told the AP that American military action had already significantly reduced Iran\u2019s ability to produce, sell and transport oil and other energy resources.<\/p>\n

The official said that beyond the naval blockade and sanctions, Trump still has \u201cadditional options\u201d that could be deployed over the coming weeks and months.<\/p>\n

But continued economic warfare carries a political cost for Trump as well.<\/p>\n

If Iran keeps disrupting tanker traffic through Hormuz, U.S. gasoline prices are likely to remain elevated heading into the November elections, a scenario that is increasingly worrying Republicans.<\/p>\n

Recent polling suggests the GOP has lost what had long been one of its strongest advantages over Democrats: public confidence on the economy.<\/p>\n

Democrats began leading Republicans on the issue in April, the first time they had done so since 2010.<\/p>\n

A recent Fox News poll found 54% of respondents believed Democrats would handle the economy better, compared with 45% who preferred Republicans, Democrats\u2019 strongest advantage on the issue since 2006.<\/p>\n

Trump, in effect, appears to be betting that American voters can tolerate economic discomfort longer than Iran\u2019s population can endure its far more severe crisis.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not just what the military can do,\u201d Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Monday during a joint appearance with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe also have the strongest economy in the world. And when you have a motivated Treasury secretary who knows how to use many different levers because he knows how to do it, you can put enormous pressure on adversaries.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u2018I\u2019m their banker\u2019: Trump bets Iran\u2019s collapsing economy can deliver victory without new strikes (Photo: Shutterstock, REUTERS\/Kevin Lamarque)…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":582016,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-582015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/582015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=582015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/582015\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/582016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=582015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=582015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=582015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}