{"id":582187,"date":"2026-08-12T06:36:47","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T06:36:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/582187\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T06:36:47","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T06:36:47","slug":"persistence-of-arctic-ocean-acidification-under-negative-emissions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/582187\/","title":{"rendered":"Persistence of Arctic Ocean acidification under negative emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"

United Nations: Paris Agreement. In United Nations Treaty Series Vol. 3156, 79 (United Nations, 2015).<\/p>\n

IPCC Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, Lee, H. & Romero, J.) 35\u2013115 (IPCC, 2023); https:\/\/doi.org\/10.59327\/IPCC\/AR6-9789291691647<\/a><\/p>\n

Armstrong McKay, D. I. et al. Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, 7950 (2022).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Wunderling, N. et al. Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth Syst. Dyn. 15, 41\u201374 (2024).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Lenton, T. M. et al. Tipping elements in the Earth\u2019s climate system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786\u20131793 (2008).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Caldeira, K. & Wickett, M. E. Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425, 365\u2013365 (2003).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A. & Kleypas, J. A. Ocean acidification the other CO2 problem. Annu. Rev. Marine Sci. 1, 169\u2013192 (2009).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Jiang, L.-Q. et al. Global surface ocean acidification indicators from 1750 to 2100. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 15, 2022\u2013003563 (2023).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

M\u00fcller, J. D. & Gruber, N. Progression of ocean interior acidification over the industrial era. Sci. Adv. 10, 3103 (2024).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Mathesius, S., Hofmann, M., Caldeira, K. & Schellnhuber, H. J. Long-term response of oceans to CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 1107\u20131113 (2015).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Collins, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds P\u00f6rtner, H.-O. et al) 589\u2013655 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2019).<\/p>\n

Jeltsch-Th\u00f6mmes, A., Stocker, T. F. & Joos, F. Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO2 emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 124026 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Koven, C. D. et al. Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios. Earth Syst. Dyn. 13, 885\u2013909 (2022).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Yao, W., Cao, L. & Jin, X. Simulated responses of the ocean carbon cycle to different rates of atmospheric CO2 removal. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 130, 2024\u2013022115 (2025).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Resplandy, L., Bopp, L., Orr, J. C. & Dunne, J. P. Role of mode and intermediate waters in future ocean acidification: analysis of CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3091\u20133095 (2013).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Jones, D. C., Ito, T., Takano, Y. & Hsu, W.-C. Spatial and seasonal variability of the air\u2013sea equilibration timescale of carbon dioxide. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 28, 1163\u20131178 (2014).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Bates, N. R., Moran, S. B., Hansell, D. A. & Mathis, J. T. An increasing CO2 sink in the Arctic Ocean due to sea-ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, 2006\u2013027028 (2006).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Bopp, L. et al. Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models. Biogeosciences 10, 6225\u20136245 (2013).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Qi, D. et al. Climate change drives rapid decadal acidification in the Arctic Ocean from 1994 to 2020. Science 377, 1544\u20131550 (2022).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Yasunaka, S. et al. An assessment of CO2 uptake in the Arctic Ocean from 1985 to 2018. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 37, 2023\u2013007806 (2023).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Terhaar, J., Orr, J. C., Gehlen, M., Eth\u00e9, C. & Bopp, L. Model constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean. Biogeosciences 16, 2343\u20132367 (2019).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

K\u00f6hl, A. & Serra, N. Causes of decadal changes of the freshwater content in the Arctic Ocean. J. Clim. 27, 3461\u20133475 (2014).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Shu, Q., Qiao, F., Song, Z., Zhao, J. & Li, X. Projected freshening of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 123, 9232\u20139244 (2018).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Terhaar, J., Torres, O., Bourgeois, T. & Kwiatkowski, L. Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble. Biogeosciences 18, 2221\u20132240 (2021).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Fr\u00f6licher, T. L., Plattner, G.-K. & Doney, S. C. Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Biogeosciences 6, 515\u2013533 (2009).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Orr, J. C. et al. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437, 681\u2013686 (2005).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Fabry, V. J., Seibel, B. A., Feely, R. A. & Orr, J. C. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 65, 414\u2013432 (2008).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Kwiatkowski, L. & Orr, J. C. Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 141\u2013145 (2018).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Orr, J. C., Kwiatkowski, L. & P\u00f6rtner, H.-O. Arctic Ocean annual high in pCO2 could shift from winter to summer. Nature 610, 94\u2013100 (2022).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Yamamoto-Kawai, M., McLaughlin, F. A., Carmack, E. C., Nishino, S. & Shimada, K. Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: effects of ocean acidification and sea ice melt. Science 326, 1098\u20131100 (2009).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Keller, D. P. et al. The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 1133\u20131160 (2018).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Jiang, J. et al. Response of ocean acidification to atmospheric carbon dioxide removal. J. Environ. Sci. 140, 79\u201390 (2024).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Timmermans, M.-L. & Marshall, J. Understanding Arctic Ocean circulation: a review of ocean dynamics in a changing climate. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 125, 2018\u2013014378 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Yu, H. et al. Incomplete Arctic sea-ice recovery under CO2 removal and its effects on the winter atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, 2024\u2013113541 (2025).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Manizza, M. et al. Changes in the Arctic Ocean CO2 sink (1996\u20132007): a regional model analysis. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 27, 1108\u20131118 (2013).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

MacGilchrist, G. A. et al. The Arctic Ocean carbon sink. Deep Sea Res. Part I 86, 39\u201355 (2014).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Ouyang, Z. et al. Sea-ice loss amplifies summertime decadal CO2 increase in the western Arctic Ocean. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 678\u2013684 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Sanderson, B. M. et al. The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7. Geosci. Model Dev. 17, 8141\u20138172 (2024).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Elson, P. et al. SciTools\/cartopy: v0.22.0. Zenodo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.8216315<\/a> (2023).<\/p>\n

Ziehn, T. et al. The Australian Earth System Model ACCESS-ESM1.5. J. South. Hemisph. Earth Syst. Sci. 70, 193\u2013214 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Swart, N. C. et al. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3). Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 4823\u20134873 (2019).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Danabasoglu, G. et al. The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2). J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 12, 2019\u2013001916 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

S\u00e9f\u00e9rian, R. et al. Evaluation of CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: role of Earth system processes in present-day and future climate. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 4182\u20134227 (2019).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Dunne, J. P. et al. The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 12, 2019\u2013002015 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Hajima, T. et al. Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 2197\u20132244 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Seland, \u00d8 et al. Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 6165\u20136200 (2020).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Sellar, A. A. et al. UKESM1 description and evaluation of the U.K. Earth system model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 11, 4513\u20134558 (2019).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937\u20131958 (2016).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Orr, J. C. & Epitalon, J.-M. Improved routines to model the ocean carbonate system: Mocsy 2.0. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 485\u2013499 (2015).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Garcia, H. E. et al. World Ocean Atlas 2023, Volume 4: Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients (Phosphate, Nitrate and Nitrate+Nitrite, Silicate) (NOAA, 2024).<\/p>\n

Waters, J., Millero, F. J. & Woosley, R. J. Corrigendum to \u201cThe free proton concentration scale for seawater pH\u201d, [MARCHE 149 (2013) 8\u201322]. Mar. Chem. 165, 66\u201367 (2014).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Dickson, A. G. & Riley, J. P. The estimation of acid dissociation constants in seawater media from potentionmetric titrations with strong base. I. The ionic product of water \u2014 Kw. Mar. Chem. 7, 89\u201399 (1979).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Uppstr\u00f6m, L. R. The boron\/chlorinity ratio of deep-sea water from the Pacific Ocean. Deep Sea Res. Oceanogr. Abstr. 21, 161\u2013162 (1974).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Humphreys, M. P., Lewis, E. R., Sharp, J. D. & Pierrot, D. PyCO2SYS v1.8: marine carbonate system calculations in Python. Geosci. Model Dev. 15, 15\u201343 (2022).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Kim, S.-K. et al. Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 834\u2013840 (2022).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Takahashi, T., Olafsson, J., Goddard, J. G., Chipman, D. W. & Sutherland, S. C. Seasonal variation of CO2 and nutrients in the high-latitude surface oceans: a comparative study. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 7, 843\u2013878 (1993).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Sarmiento, J. L. & Gruber, N. Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics (Princeton Univ. Press, 2006).<\/p>\n

Orr, J. C., Epitalon, J.-M., Dickson, A. G. & Gattuso, J.-P. Routine uncertainty propagation for the marine carbon dioxide system. Mar. Chem. 207, 84\u2013107 (2018).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n CAS<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Keeling, C. D., Brix, H. & Gruber, N. Interannual variability of the upper ocean carbon cycle at station ALOHA near Hawaii. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 18, GB4006 (2004).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

Lovenduski, N. S., Gruber, N., Doney, S. C. & Lima, I. D. Enhanced CO2 outgassing in the Southern Ocean from a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 21, GB2026 (2007).<\/p>\n

Article<\/a>\u00a0
\n
\n Google Scholar<\/a>\u00a0\n <\/p>\n

K\u00f6hn, E. E. Eikekoehn\/Arctic_acidification_reversibility_scripts: 1.1. Zenodo https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.17415103<\/a> (2026).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"United Nations: Paris Agreement. In United Nations Treaty Series Vol. 3156, 79 (United Nations, 2015). IPCC Climate Change…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":582188,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[59725,62076,1477,5653,242,5654,3181,85,46,33289,141],"class_list":["post-582187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-biogeochemistry","tag-climate-and-earth-system-modelling","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-change-climate-change-impacts","tag-environment","tag-environmental-law-policy-ecojustice","tag-general","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-marine-chemistry","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/582187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=582187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/582187\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/582188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=582187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=582187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=582187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}