These include \u201cthe rise of a strong central Sunni axis that sees itself as capable of serving as a counterweight to other regional forces; an understanding among the states of this axis that the Iranian threat is apparently not expected to disappear in the foreseeable future and requires preparation for scenarios of its development; a desire to create an arrangement that is not dependent on the United States and bypasses Israel, an arrangement that can of course realize political ambitions and cross-continental economic partnerships and is not purely security-related.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ben-Shabbat stressed the expansion of Turkish influence reflected in the Mecca pact as part of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s regional aspirations. He also noted a striking absence from the new grouping: the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n
The UAE \u201cdid not join this arrangement,\u201d Ben-Shabbat noted.<\/p>\n
The former national security adviser said Israel\u2019s response should focus on strengthening its own partnerships.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlongside efforts against Iran and its proxies, in the face of this emerging step, Israel needs to continue and advance its cooperation with India and the Emirates in parallel with cooperation with the eastern Mediterranean states, and of course be alert to Erdogan\u2019s conduct in the arenas close to us,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Dr. Brandon Friedman, director of research at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS that the pact reflects a shared perception among its three signatories that \u201cboth Israel and Iran are potentially destabilizing threats\u201d to them.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Pakistan-Saudi defense pact was signed in the immediate aftermath of Israel\u2019s attack on Doha last September 2025,\u201d Friedman said, adding that direct Iranian strikes on two of the three signatories during the current war reinforced the logic behind expanding that arrangement.<\/p>\n
\u201cBoth Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been attacked by Iran during the current war,\u201d Friedman noted.<\/p>\n
Why Egypt stayed out<\/p>\n
Egypt\u2019s absence from the pact, despite Turkish invitations, stems from the binding mutual-defense clause clashing with Cairo\u2019s existing web of relationships, Friedman assessed.<\/p>\n
\u201cEgypt is uncomfortable with the NATO-like binding element of the pact that demands it would respond to an attack on the other members,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis would put it in an untenable position regarding its relationship with UAE, a crucial investor in its economy, which has had disputes with Saudi Arabia, and potentially also regarding its peace treaty with Israel,\u201d Friedman said, adding that Cairo\u2019s economic ties elsewhere compound the problem.<\/p>\n
\u201cIndia is also a major trade and economic partner for Egypt, and this binding defense pact would create problems in the event of renewed India-Pakistan hostilities,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
A NATO-like commitment<\/p>\n
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement was formally signed on Aug. 7, 2026, by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.<\/p>\n
According to an Aug. 7 Reuters report, the pact declares that \u201can armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.\u201d Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz reportedly said the agreement \u201cwas not aimed at any specific country,\u201d while a Turkish official described it as purely defensive and said it did not supersede existing agreements with other states.<\/p>\n
The pact builds on the earlier Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on Sept. 17, 2025. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on Aug. 9 that the pact was \u201cpurely defensive in nature\u201d and remained open to other countries willing to uphold its principles, according to the\u00a0Associated Press.<\/p>\n
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