{"id":586887,"date":"2026-08-17T00:08:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T00:08:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/586887\/"},"modified":"2026-08-17T00:08:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T00:08:14","slug":"soft-us-inflation-and-jobs-data-keep-gold-price-supported-but-4500-is-a-critical-test-for-xau-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/586887\/","title":{"rendered":"Soft US Inflation and Jobs Data Keep Gold Price Supported, but $4,500 Is a Critical Test for XAU\/USD"},"content":{"rendered":"

gold<\/p>\n

Gold enters the new week with renewed bullish momentum after rebounding from the critical $4,000 support zone, although weaker Chinese retail demand and the $4,500 resistance level could limit the recovery despite continued central-bank buying.<\/p>\n

Written by:
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\n Skerdian Meta
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\u2022
\n Sunday, August 16, 2026
\n \u2022
\n 3 min read<\/p>\n

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\n Last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026\n <\/p>\n

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\"Gold<\/p>\n

Live GOLD Chart<\/p>\n

GOLD<\/p>\n

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Gold enters the new week with renewed bullish momentum after rebounding from the critical $4,000 support zone, although weaker Chinese retail demand and the $4,500 resistance level could limit the recovery despite continued central-bank buying.<\/p>\n

Gold Rebounds From Critical $4,000 Support<\/p>\n

Gold staged a powerful recovery last week after finding support around the psychologically important $4,000 an ounce level.<\/p>\n

The precious metal climbed above $4,360 on Friday, reaching its highest level in seven weeks after U.S. employment data unexpectedly weakened. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, compared with expectations for an increase of roughly 80,000.<\/p>\n

The disappointing jobs report quickly changed expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. Markets began pricing in a greater possibility of a September rate move, while the U.S. dollar weakened.<\/p>\n

That combination provided a significant boost to gold, which gained almost 10% during the week. Gold-mining stocks also benefited, with the GDX ETF recording its second-best weekly performance.<\/p>\n

However, the recovery now faces a major test. A sustained break above $4,500 would provide stronger evidence that the broader trend has turned bullish, while failure to clear that level could leave gold vulnerable to another pullback.<\/p>\n

Softer U.S. Data Supports Gold<\/p>\n

Recent U.S. inflation data has also strengthened the gold recovery.<\/p>\n

Softer CPI and PPI readings have reduced some concerns that persistent inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.<\/p>\n

The weaker employment data has added to those expectations by suggesting that economic momentum may be losing strength.<\/p>\n

A weaker dollar and lower interest-rate expectations generally provide support for gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, markets remain highly sensitive to incoming U.S. data and Federal Reserve commentary.<\/p>\n

China Retail Demand Drops While Central Banks Buy<\/p>\n

China presents a more complicated picture.<\/p>\n

Gold retail buying in Beijing has reportedly fallen sharply, with jewelry prices around 1,340 to 1,370 yuan per gram, roughly 300 yuan below levels seen earlier in the year. The decline suggests that some household investors are becoming reluctant to chase gold after its substantial gains.<\/p>\n

Central banks, however, continue accumulating bullion.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s central bank added to its reserves for the 19th consecutive month, reinforcing the longer-term demand trend from official institutions.<\/p>\n

This divergence is important. Weaker private-sector demand could limit upside momentum, but continued central-bank accumulation provides a significant structural source of support.<\/p>\n

Technical Analysis\u2014The 200 SMA Held a Support<\/p>\n

The broader trend remains bearish following several months of declines, the latest rebound suggests downside momentum may be fading however, MAs continue to keep the trend bearish. Buyers successfully defended the $4,000 support zone once again despite breaching it, while recovering despite higher Treasury yields represents an encouraging technical development.<\/p>\n

Technically, the correction early in H1 of 2026 was severe. Gold broke decisively below its 50-day simple moving average, ending a streak of consistent trend support. Attention quickly shifted to the 100-day moving average near $5,000 which was also broken and in late March we saw a decline below the early February low of $4,400, and XAU bottomed at $3,942.<\/p>\n

Gold Chart Daily \u2013 Gold Rebounds Off the 200 SMA\"Chart<\/p>\n

However Gold has found support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) turned into support in the last 3 weeks after XAU slipped to $3,940s, but rebounded late in the week and managed to close above the $4,300 level. On the weekly chart, Gold broke below the 50 SMA (yellow) as well in June and still trades below it.<\/p>\n

Gold Chart Weekly \u2013 The 50 SMA Turned Into Resistance\"Chart<\/p>\n

However, the ability to hold above $4,000 carries psychological importance. Reclaiming such a major round-number threshold often stabilizes sentiment, especially after a period of forced liquidation. While volatility remains elevated, the ability to defend longer-term trend support suggests that structural buyers remain active<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Geopolitical Risks Keep Safe-Haven Demand Alive<\/p>\n

Geopolitical tensions are also maintaining gold\u2019s safe-haven appeal.<\/p>\n

Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and rising tensions around regional shipping routes have increased risk across commodity markets.<\/p>\n

Any renewed escalation could quickly push investors toward traditional defensive assets, including gold.<\/p>\n

For now, however, the next major technical test remains $4,500. Gold has recovered convincingly from $4,000, but buyers need to clear that resistance level to confirm that the latest rebound is becoming a sustained bullish trend.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Skerdian Meta <\/p>\n

\n Lead Analyst\n <\/p>\n

\n Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
\nSkerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.\n <\/p>\n