For Netanyahu, facing the very real prospect of losing office, holding onto power may hinge on moderating the Likud slate to the point that the party becomes palatable again to voters who have fled over its turn to the hard right in the last election. After he successfully expanded his direct control over about a third of the top seats, Monday\u2019s primary marked a key test of his ability to shape the Likud roster into something he can sell to potential supporters, one he seems to have passed with flying colors, though the real trial won\u2019t take place until October 27.<\/p>\n
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\t\t\t\tBy signing up, you agree to the terms<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe general election will be determined by between 25 percent to a third of\u2026\u00a0 voters that voted Likud last time and now are either defecting to the liberal side or staying at home,\u201d said pollster Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.<\/p>\n In the last election, Likud won 32 seats, a number consistent with its showing in elections over the previous decade. Today, polls put it at around 22-23 seats, slightly behind or neck-and-neck with former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot\u2019s centrist Yashar party and almost certainly unable to scrape together another governing coalition.<\/p>\n \t Many of Likud\u2019s former voters have moved toward more moderate right-wing or even centrist parties that will likely bolster Eisenkot or Beyachad head Naftali Bennett\u2019s bid to cobble together a government and oust Netanyahu from power.<\/p>\n Speaking with The Times of Israel on Tuesday, Nir noted that those who voted for Likud in the past appeared to be more likely to lean toward political pragmatism than the party\u2019s approximately 140,000 dues-paying members who were eligible to cast ballots in the primary.<\/p>\n He cited a poll that showed\u00a054.9% of Likud voters were in favor of a national unity government between the right and center, a prospect supported by only 33.9% of Likud members.<\/p>\n \t \u201cA majority of Likud voters would want a government coalition with the more centrist parties, whereas two-thirds of party members would rather have the same ultra-right, ultra-Orthodox kind of government,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n While bringing in more moderate candidates and pushing down those less palatable to the average voter won\u2019t change the widespread view of the party and its leadership as responsible for the failures of October 7 or erase voters\u2019 memory of its recent push to exempt Haredim from military service, it could help Likud with voters who remain on the fence, an important achievement in and of itself.<\/p>\n The composition of the party \u201cwill have great significance on whether [its voters] come back home,\u201d Nir said.<\/p>\n \t If left up to primary voters alone, Likud\u2019s list would likely continue to pull toward the right.<\/p>\n A recent poll by Nir of 1,000 primary voters unconnected to the internal wheeling and dealing that often plays a major part in how members cast ballots found that firebrand MK Tally Gotliv and Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Boaz Bismuth, another member of the party\u2019s far-right flank, would be among the top three vote-getters.<\/p>\n Instead, the pair finished in 12th and 15th place respectively, with Netanyahu\u2019s control of reserved slots likely pushing them down to slots 19 and 23. (Gotliv has alleged fraud, claiming that her name had been left off ballots at some polling stations.)<\/p>\n \t At the same time as he pushed some unpalatable candidates out, Netanyahu also threw a bone to the more hardline elements of the electorate by endorsing former Otzma Yehudit MK Almog Cohen, who came in at number 8 in the primary vote.<\/p>\n \u201cThis was an attempt to hold back Likud voters who defected to [Otzma Yehudit chairman and National Security Minister Itamar] Ben Gvir, which many did during these past few years, because Ben Gvir keeps on giving the impression, and maybe rightfully so, that [Netanyahu] is holding him back from being even more nationalistic and security-driven,\u201d Nir stated.<\/p>\n \t Netanyahu won control of the reserved seats last month, when the Likud Central Committee agreed to greatly expand<\/a> his control over the party\u2019s Knesset slate.<\/p>\n His push to secure the reserved spots <\/a>was reportedly based on concerns that the primary would elevate candidates who are highly popular among the Likud base<\/a>,\u00a0 but whom internal party polling suggests are less appealing to moderate right-wing and swing voters.<\/p>\n Five of those slots have already been handed out to Foreign Minister Gideon Sa\u2019ar, Defense Minister Israel Katz, Likud Central Committee chair Haim Katz and political newcomer Oren Dobronsky<\/a>, with three more in the top 15 yet to be named, along with two others in spots 26 and 29.<\/p>\n According to Nir, Netanyahu can now use those spots to complete his crafting of what he perceives as the slate most likely to raise Likud\u2019s haul in the general election.<\/p>\n It gives Netanyahu \u201cthe opportunity to bring some more moderate people and some fresh faces from the outside that will actually try to appeal to the larger voter audience rather than the party members,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\tA campaign poster for Gadi Eisenkot\u2019s Yashar party is seen over Ayalon highway in Tel Aviv. February 4, 2026. (Miriam Alster\/FLASH90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/F260817CG20-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara vote in Jerusalem in the Likud primary, August 17, 2026, as Likud members help determine the party\u2019s Knesset slate ahead of Israel\u2019s October 27 general elections. (Chaim Goldberg\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/m0nt4g3-25up-20260818-0af9f0.jpg\")
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\n\t\tThe near-final Likud slate for the 2026 election, with silhouettes showing slots reserved for Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s yet-to-be-named personal choices. Top left to bottom right: 1. Benjamin Netanyahu 2. Eli Cohen 3. Reserved 4. Israel Katz 5. Gideon Sa\u2019ar 6. Amir Ohana 7. Yariv Levin 8. Miri Regev 9. Reserved 10. Ofir Katz 11. Oren Dobronsky 12. Yoav Kisch 13. Miki Zohar 14. Almog Cohen 15. Reserved 16. Amichai Chikli 17. David Amsalem 18. Haim Katz 19. Moshe Saada 20. Tally Gotliv 21. Shlomo Karhi 22. David Bitan 23. Boaz Bismuth 24. Nir Barkat 25. Gila Gamliel. (AP Photo\/Sebastian Scheiner, Yonatan Sindel\/Flash90, Ivan Burchak\/iStock by Getty Images, Chaim Goldberg\/Flash90, Oren Ben Hakoon\/Flash90, Yehoshua Yosef\/Flash90, Courtesy Likud party, Miriam Alster\/Flash90, Yossi Aloni\/FLASH90, Avshalom Sassoni\/Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/F260617OBH105-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tLikud MK Tally Gotliv in the Knesset plenum, the Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, June 17, 2026. (Oren Ben Hakoon\/ Flash90)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/F260817LM308-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tMinister Almog Cohen (right), a candidate in the Likud primary elections, is seen at a polling station in the southern Israeli city of Ofakim on August 17, 2026. (Liron Moldovan\/Flash90)<\/p>\n
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