{"id":598153,"date":"2026-08-28T01:34:49","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T01:34:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/598153\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T01:34:49","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T01:34:49","slug":"expert-says-iran-losing-hormuz-leverage-as-defenses-and-oil-role-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/598153\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert says Iran losing Hormuz leverage as defenses and oil role decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

Though the Islamic Republic of Iran<\/a> has established a \u201csophisticated panoply\u201d to protect itself against the possibility of regime change, its trump card, the Strait of Hormuz, is losing its strategic value and will continue to do so, Thomas O\u2019Donnell, an American energy and geopolitics strategist and a Global Fellow of the Wilson Center, told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.<\/p>\n

With many of the regime\u2019s regional proxies degraded over years of war with Israel and its nuclear ambitions delayed after the 12 Day War in June last year, Tehran<\/a> only has its rockets, drones, and ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz left as an insurance policy against attempts to topple the regime, he noted.<\/p>\n

These remaining elements will be used to dissuade action while it restores the others, but they are losing the weight they once carried, O\u2019Donnell added.<\/p>\n

Though 14 to 15 million barrels of oil traveled through Hormuz<\/a> per day before the war, he argued that it was very possible to manage without much of that supply.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline moves around five million barrels per day for non-domestic use, while the United Arab Emirates moves an average of 1.5 to 1.8m. bpd through its own pipeline, he calculated.<\/p>\n

\"OilOil tanker HELGA is moored at one of Iraq’s southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, becoming the second vessel to arrive since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, April 24, 2026. (credit: REUTERS\/Mohammed Aty\/File Photo)<\/p>\n

Some 400m. barrels of oil and refined petroleum products were unanimously approved for release by the 32 member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA), while the US government committed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.<\/p>\n

None of this even touches on the oil supplied by the Western Hemisphere, where roughly 32% to 40% of the world\u2019s total oil originates.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s more production in other places, but [the disruption of] oil has not been anything like it would have been 20 years ago if they closed the strait,\u201d he said, explaining how the US\u2019s own oil and fracking industries have helped mitigate much of the damage.<\/p>\n

Could Iran\u2019s weakening control of Hormuz force a deal with the US?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe oil price, it\u2019ll go up and down. The fact that it went over $100 [a barrel], and the next day it was $80, that means that\u2019s geostrategic variability. That\u2019s not fundamental.\u201d<\/p>\n

A number of planned pipelines, namely the UAE\u2019s plans to double its oil output through a parallel pipeline and Iraq\u2019s plans for an Iraq-to-Syria pipeline, will also weaken the strategic value of Hormuz as states develop alternative routes.<\/p>\n

Reflecting on these developments, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared earlier this month the prediction that the strait \u201cis going to become just another body of water\u201d over the next two years, estimating that 50-70% of the exports passing through the waterway would instead travel through underground pipelines.<\/p>\n

Noting that the Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq could still cause some issues with the planned pipeline, he reasoned that this would provide further motivation for Iraq to keep to its September 30 deadline to disarm the groups.<\/p>\n

O\u2019Donnell further argued that beyond Hormuz<\/a> becoming less valuable as a transit point for fuel, Iran\u2019s own ability to defend its claim over the waterway has also diminished, as has its ability to attack neighboring states\u2019 alternative oil routes.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Americans systematically bombed the region and knocked out every radar that was ever turned on. Little by little\u2026 they systematically degraded it. And now you see [oil tankers] are sneaking or being escorted at night, where Iran can\u2019t visually see the tankers very well,\u201d O\u2019Donnell explained.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran had a more or less static defense or offense, missiles and drones that they can\u2019t reproduce, and electronic eyes that undoubtedly the Americans can only degrade at some rate. And so their ability to control Hormuz will degrade over time.\u201d<\/p>\n

In other words, Iran is losing leverage over Hormuz from both directions: The waterway is becoming less indispensable to global energy markets, and Tehran is becoming less capable of controlling it.<\/p>\n

The natural outcome of this will be vessels traveling largely unimpeded through the strait as Iran is left with degraded weapons and defenses, he continued, predicting that even the regime\u2019s hardliners would eventually need to make a deal with the US despite their current \u201cbravado\u201d as the financial crisis hitting Iran worsens.<\/p>\n

Aware of this, Iran may make a \u201cdesperate attempt\u201d to step up its pressure campaign on the US through attacks on Gulf states, potentially even launching a ground incursion, O\u2019Donnell said.<\/p>\n

What will happen to Hormuz if Iran loses control?\u00a0<\/p>\n

Having rubbed shoulders with a number of diplomats and analysts in the region, O\u2019Donnell said he had been told by a number of sources that Gulf states were aware, prior to the war\u2019s outbreak on February 28, that Iran had strategized a plan to target them as a means to pressure the US into dropping or moderating any campaign against it should the need ever arise.<\/p>\n

When the US continued to attack despite Gulf pressure, quickly eliminating Tehran\u2019s leadership, the Islamic Republic went for the Strait of Hormuz, \u201cbecause it\u2019s so important globally.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite not approving of the US\u2019s attacks on Iran due to the consequences for them, O\u2019Donnell said that Gulf states were unwilling to see Hormuz remain under Iran\u2019s control for reasons outside of the issue of fees.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs soon as there\u2019s something on Asharq or on Sky News that they don\u2019t like, they\u2019ll hold up the UAE ships,\u201d he said. \u201cAs soon as there\u2019s something on Al Jazeera they don\u2019t like, they\u2019ll hold up the ships for a week.\u201d<\/p>\n

This, he reasoned, is why Gulf states would not allow the United States to leave the conflict, despite alternative oil routes becoming available in the not-so-distant future.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they\u2019re going to make a deal, now\u2019s the time to make a deal and get it over with. They can cause a lot of pain, but in the end, Iran is really going to become diminished. And if they go diehard, it\u2019s going to be hard for everybody, obviously,\u201d O\u2019Donnell said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you have a diminishing lever, best to make what deal you can\u2026 The US knows it\u2019s going to take a long time, it\u2019ll be fairly painful for allies, [but] in the end, it\u2019s going to get better for us.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Though the Islamic Republic of Iran has established a \u201csophisticated panoply\u201d to protect itself against the possibility of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":598154,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,149244,87,109283,28757,43,5839,114994,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-598153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-iranian-economy","tag-natural-gas","tag-news","tag-oil","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598153\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}