{"id":601607,"date":"2026-08-31T13:38:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/601607\/"},"modified":"2026-08-31T13:38:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:38:17","slug":"who-are-the-economic-winners-and-losers-of-the-us-israel-war-on-iran-economy-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/601607\/","title":{"rendered":"Who are the economic winners and losers of the US-Israel war on Iran? | Economy News"},"content":{"rendered":"

Six months since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran, triggering turmoil in world energy markets, the fallout continues to reverberate through many areas of the global economy.<\/p>\n

While the war has strained many sectors of the economy, it has also been a boon for some industries.<\/p>\n

Recommended Stories list of 4 itemsend of list<\/p>\n

Here is a look at some of the key economic winners and losers of the war:<\/p>\n

Winner: Oil companies<\/p>\n

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure<\/a> in Gulf countries, has sent the price of oil soaring since the start of the war. That has boosted the bottom lines<\/a> of some of the world\u2019s biggest energy companies.<\/p>\n

ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the US, reported $14.5bn profit in the second quarter of this year, its best quarterly earnings in four years.<\/p>\n

Chevron, the second-largest US producer, posted a $12bn profit for the same period, the highest in six years.<\/p>\n

France\u2019s TotalEnergies raked in a profit of $6bn in the April-June period, up from $3.6bn last year.<\/p>\n

British energy giants Shell and BP both more than doubled their earnings year-on-year, with quarterly profits of $9.8bn and $5.73bn, respectively.<\/p>\n

\u201cEuropean energy companies did even better than the US peers as they trade oil, and the latter also helped boosting their revenues,\u201d Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cSupply shortages sure remain a risk for business, but energy is essential, and the companies are capable of raising prices to cover the revenue loss and make profit out of it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, some of the region\u2019s top producers have also made bumper profits. Saudi Aramco netted $33.4bn profit in the most recent quarter, a one-third increase from 2025.<\/p>\n

Some regional producers have been harder hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz than others, however.<\/p>\n

In August, the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (best known as ADNOC) reported a 52 percent drop in \u200csecond-quarter profit to $665m from $1.39bn in the same period a year earlier, saying sales had been hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, it still beat its expected range of $400m to $600m.<\/p>\n

\"TheThe ExxonMobil stand at the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, Canada, July 12, 2023 [Chris Helgren\/Reuters]Losers: US taxpayers<\/p>\n

In late July, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth provided Congress with an estimate putting the cost of the war up to that point at $37.5bn.<\/p>\n

Hegseth did not provide a breakdown, but various observers have suggested that the true cost is almost certainly far higher.<\/p>\n

Linda Bilmes, a senior lecturer in public policy at Harvard Kennedy School, said Hegseth\u2019s estimate appeared to be based on the upfront cost of munitions spent by US forces, neglecting medium- and long-term costs ranging from repairs to damaged military installations to disability payments for wounded soldiers, which could last for decades.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are significant costs in each category, but the Pentagon is only speaking about the short-term costs, mostly munitions valued at historical inventory,\u201d Bilmes told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy analysis shows that the total budgetary costs will likely reach $1 trillion.\u201d<\/p>\n

Winner: Defence firms<\/p>\n

Recent US news reports have suggested that the US may be running low on essential weapons in the Middle East, particularly Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. The Trump administration denies this<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the most recent major weapons contract linked to the war, the Pentagon announced on August 17 that it had sealed a $22.9bn agreement with RTX Corporation to ramp up production of Tomahawk cruise missiles used for strikes.<\/p>\n

The US military has also partnered with arms manufacturers on contracts worth tens of billions of dollars since the start of the war, including a $59bn deal with Lockheed Martin to triple production of Patriot interceptor missiles, which US and Gulf forces have heavily depleted against Iranian missile and drone attacks.<\/p>\n

This is one area in which Iran has shown it can excel in asymmetric warfare<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A new single Patriot defence system costs more than $1bn, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).<\/p>\n

While each Patriot interceptor missile fired costs approximately $4m<\/a> to produce, the Iranian Shahed drones they are being used to intercept are mass-produced and cost just $20,000 to $50,000 each.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemand has increased for air and missile defence, interceptor missiles, counter-drone technologies, surveillance and intelligence systems, satellites, propulsion, warheads, and munitions replenishment,\u201d Rami Sarafa, CEO and founder of Cordoba Advisory Partners, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe conflict has highlighted the importance of affordable drone interceptors, layered missile defence, persistent ISR and the ability to manufacture large quantities of expendable munitions quickly. This is a lesson that the US and Israel are learning the hard way.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite increased demand for armaments, some of the biggest defence firms have performed poorly on the stock market over the course of the war.<\/p>\n

Shares of Northrop Grumman are down about 25 percent since the start of the conflict, while Boeing has dropped about 8 percent.<\/p>\n

Lockheed Martin is up about 14 percent, only slightly more than the US stock market as a whole.<\/p>\n

Loser: The world\u2019s hungry<\/p>\n

Higher fuel and fertiliser costs have pushed up food prices, putting the world\u2019s poor at greater risk of hunger<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Gulf is important not only for oil and gas, but also for fertiliser and its feedstocks,\u201d Gerben Hieminga, an expert in energy markets at ING Research, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf farmers respond to high prices by applying less fertiliser, the economic impact can emerge months later through lower yields and higher food prices, with vulnerable importing countries in Africa and Asia facing the greatest risks,\u201d Hieminga said.<\/p>\n

In July, the Food and Agriculture Organization\u2019s food price index rose 0.6 percent compared with the previous month to hit its highest level since January 2023, a rise the UN agency attributed to the combined effects of drought and higher fuel prices due to conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The World Food Programme has estimated that an additional 7.1 million people in three vulnerable countries \u2013 Somalia, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka \u2013 are already struggling to get sufficient food due to the fallout of the war.<\/p>\n

Last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that conflict had turned the world\u2019s food supply into \u201ccollateral damage\u201d. He called for an end to the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, which Iran has effectively closed, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are targeting Saudi-linked shipping.<\/p>\n

\"INTERACTIVE<\/p>\n

Winner: Banks<\/p>\n

Stock market volatility spurred by the war has driven a surge in trading at financial institutions, as investors look to profit from wild market swings or swap equities for less risky assets, such as bonds.<\/p>\n

Each of the \u201cBig Four\u201d US banks reported double-digit increases in profit in the second quarter of the year, with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo netting a combined $42.5bn.<\/p>\n

Major banks in other countries have also reported impressive earnings.<\/p>\n

UK lender HSBC\u2019s net profit jumped 60 percent to $10.1bn in the last quarter, while France\u2019s Societe Generale saw its earnings rise 23 percent to $2.04bn.<\/p>\n

Loser: Airlines<\/p>\n

The war has severely impacted the aviation industry, particularly in the Middle East, where Iranian missile and drone attacks forced the cancellation or diversion of tens of thousands of flights in the early months of the conflict.<\/p>\n

While major Middle East region carriers have yet to report their earnings for the most recent quarter, the International Air Transport Association has estimated that the region\u2019s airlines are collectively on track for a $4.3bn loss, following a $7.2bn profit in 2025.<\/p>\n

While the Middle East has borne the brunt of the disruption, the reverberations of the conflict have been felt across the industry globally because of higher fuel prices.<\/p>\n

On Friday, Air New Zealand became the latest airline to blame higher fuel costs for poor earnings, posting a loss of about $200m for the 12 months to June 30.<\/p>\n

\u201cAirlines have faced the combination of cancelled flights, longer routes, constrained airspace and expensive jet fuel,\u201d said Hieminga at ING Research.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat is particularly damaging for Gulf carriers and European or Asian airlines that rely heavily on the East-West corridor, while US carriers have generally been less directly exposed.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AnAn Air New Zealand jet taxiing in Chicago, November 30, 2018 [Kamil Krzaczynski\/Reuters]Winners: Renewables and coal<\/p>\n

Both clean and \u201cdirty\u201d energy have benefitted from the crisis in global oil and gas supplies.<\/p>\n

Clean energy<\/p>\n

Rising fossil fuel prices have accelerated efforts to transition to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydro power.<\/p>\n

At least 26 countries and regions, including China, Australia, Canada and France, have announced clean energy initiatives in response to the war, according to the Global Energy Crisis Policy Monitor.<\/p>\n

The International Energy Agency estimates that electric vehicles will make up 29 percent of all vehicle sales in 2026, the highest share ever.<\/p>\n

Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy and climate policy at the University of Oxford, said the conflict has strengthened the \u201cstructural case\u201d for renewables at a time when demand is hitting record levels in many countries.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think increasingly, companies expect oil and gas prices to remain elevated for some time to come. This means the price pressure to switch off fossil fuels also remains strong,\u201d Rosenow told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, this should strengthen the market for renewables.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Dirty\u2019 energy<\/p>\n

However, another beneficiary is coal<\/a>. In August,\u00a0South Africa\u2019s thermal coal producer Thungela Resources said it had doubled its half-year profits as the war has forced more countries to buy the fuel.<\/p>\n

Production at Thungela\u2019s Ensham mines in Queensland rose by 38 percent in the first half of the year, during the peak of the conflict.<\/p>\n

The company reported 4.80 South African rand ($0.30) in headline earnings per share \u2013 or HEPS, a primary metric of profitability used in South Africa. That is up from 1.92 rand ($0.12) in June last year.<\/p>\n

Although abundant and relatively cheap to produce, coal is considered one of the dirtiest fossil fuels. Mining it causes water pollution, while burning it releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, which contributes to global warming.<\/p>\n

While coal prices have risen, the fuel remains much cheaper than oil \u2013 and is more readily available. This has appealed to Asian countries, which are more reliant on oil and gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz than others. Since the war began, several Asian countries have announced plans to increase coal-fired electricity generation or have scaled back plans to reduce coal consumption.<\/p>\n

Indonesia is the top coal exporter by a wide margin, followed by Australia and Russia.<\/p>\n

In March, Jakarta reversed previous plans to curb coal production and reduce oversupply in a bid to benefit from the rising prices. Prices were set at $131.85 per tonne in July, compared with $102.20 in the previous year.<\/p>\n

According to an analysis by energy data company Ember, coal output will rise globally by 1.8 percent by the end of 2026 compared with 2025 in a \u201cworst-case\u201d scenario.<\/p>\n

Losers: Carmakers<\/p>\n

The car industry has been among the most visibly impacted manufacturing-intensive sectors due to the rising cost of key materials such as aluminium, plastics and paint.<\/p>\n

Toyota, the world\u2019s biggest carmaker, said last week that its global sales fell almost 5 percent in July, the sixth straight month of decline.<\/p>\n

\"AA Toyota dealership in the US state of Massachusetts, January 27, 2010 [Brian Snyder\/Reuters]<\/p>\n

The latest sales figures came after the Japanese carmaker warned earlier this year that it expected the conflict to cost it $4.3bn.<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s Volkswagen, the second-biggest carmaker globally, saw its earnings drop by nearly one-third in the second quarter as the fallout from the war compounded growing competition from Chinese brands.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe war\u2019s bigger, less-visible fingerprint has been on the supply side: Middle East production and export disruptions at Toyota, Mazda and Hyundai, rerouted inventory landing stateside, and Iran-linked cost spikes in aluminium and speciality chip materials,\u201d Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile higher gas prices could provide a modest boost to electric vehicles and hybrids, the overall effect on the market is more likely to be negative if consumers continue pulling back,\u201d Keating added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Six months since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran, triggering turmoil in world energy…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":601608,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4386,159885,11866,20420,5461,2681,1153,184,1435,9835,453,85,46,43],"class_list":["post-601607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-israel","tag-agriculture","tag-armed-groups","tag-automotive-industry","tag-aviation","tag-banks","tag-business-and-economy","tag-conflict","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-financial-markets","tag-food","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=601607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601607\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/601608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=601607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=601607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=601607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}