{"id":605006,"date":"2026-09-03T23:18:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T23:18:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/605006\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T23:18:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T23:18:25","slug":"who-are-the-winners-of-australias-house-price-slump-according-to-experts-almost-everyones-a-loser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/605006\/","title":{"rendered":"Who are the winners of Australia\u2019s house price slump? According to experts, almost everyone\u2019s a loser"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia\u2019s housing market has weathered a remarkably sharp price downturn<\/a> since May, resulting in a ripple effect of consequences for buyers, sellers, owners and renters.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s median property<\/a> value has slumped by 3.6 per cent compared to a record-high in March \u2013 resulting in weak auction rates and tighter stock as wary sellers pull their homes off the market.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Australia\u2019s capital cities are recording weak auction clearance rates as prices take a dive.\u00a0Peter Rae<\/p>\n

A capital city breakdown paints an even grimmer picture. <\/p>\n

In Melbourne,<\/a> home prices have fallen 5.3 per cent below their peak in October 2025, and Sydney<\/a> property prices have plunged by 7.1 per cent below a February 2026 peak.<\/p>\n

The federal government had billed its property tax changes as clearing the path to home ownership for young people.<\/p>\n

But is it actually helping?<\/p>\n

According to mortgage brokers and finance experts, there are only two classes of Australians who may be benefiting \u2013 upsizers and cash-rich first homebuyers.<\/p>\n

THE WINNERSUpsizers<\/p>\n

Homeowners who were waiting for the right time to upsize into a bigger property are among the biggest winners of this generational price downturn.<\/p>\n

FinSavvy director and co-founder Sina Enayati told nine.com.au<\/a> that upsizers are leveraging the price slump to sell their existing home and nab another house at a major discount.<\/p>\n

He said this is happening across Sydney, where some suburbs have recorded home values declining by up to $600,000.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can buy a property at 2 million that’s gone down 20 per cent, so now it\u2019s $1.6 million\u201d Enayati said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe gap between their current existing property of a million and up to the next property has decreased significantly. So people are taking that opportunity to upsize.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re getting more bang for their buck. It\u2019s a really good time for them.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

First homebuyers with a healthy deposit are among the few winners of the property downturn.\u00a0Dion Georgopoulos<\/p>\n

Some first home buyers<\/p>\n

A softer market has been a Godsend for many first homebuyers.<\/p>\n

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/a> (ABS), Australia recorded 29,319 first home buyer loan commitments for during the June quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n

Young buyers are taking advantage of lower prices to enter a market they were once locked out of.<\/p>\n

But brokers say it\u2019s only benefiting those who could afford a 20 per cent deposit.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd if they\u2019re not planning on moving or selling or utilising equity on the property, the downturn isn\u2019t really a problem for them,\u201d founder of Sydney-based firm Novaseed, Andrea Torres told nine.com.au.<\/a><\/p>\n

Homeowners refinancing<\/p>\n

Homeowners who have been building equity on their properties are now in \u201cmaintenance\u201d mode.<\/p>\n

Enayati said the price slump has been a golden opportunity for long-term owners to ask lenders and banks to refinance their loans.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re doing we\u2019re doing a lot of rate reviews, of loan reviews, portfolio reviews, moving stuff around and switching stuff to interest only,\u201d Enayati explained.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re very busy with this kind of work.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Upsizers are taking advantage of less competition and lower prices.\u00a0Peter Rae. <\/p>\n

THE LOSERSFirst home buyers who used 5 per cent scheme<\/p>\n

New homeowners who put a smaller cent deposit down under the federal government\u2019s five per cent scheme may be finding themselves in financial hot water.<\/p>\n

QuickPath Lending founder Jacob Nutt said that, while thousands of Australians have entered the market, many may be at risk of slipping into negative equity.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a massive issue where people have put a five 5 per cent deposit down, purchased their property six or 12 months ago, and now they\u2019re actually they\u2019ve actually got negative equity in the property,\u201d Jacob Nutt said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re kind of stuck as well, so they don\u2019t have the ability to move because they\u2019re going to lose money and have to pay back more than they actually owe.\u201d<\/p>\n

Enayati described this as a type of \u201cmortgage prison\u201d.<\/p>\n

Borrowers wanting to switch lenders while their loan-to-value ratio is above 80 per cent will have to pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), which was waived under the government deposit scheme.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they are only going in with a 5 per cent deposit, if market goes down, they\u2019ve lost money, but it\u2019s also kind of trapping them into that mortgage,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can still refinance out, okay. However, it comes with an insurance expense, which is it means it wouldn\u2019t be worthwhile.\u201d<\/p>\n

Real estate and buyer\u2019s agents<\/p>\n

Property agents are battling weak auction clearance rates across almost every capital city.<\/p>\n

As sellers sit on their hands and wait for the downturn to change course, real estate agents are losing business.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve seen quite a few buyer\u2019s agents just deciding whether to close shop or not because of investors not being in the market,\u201d Torres said.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Renters are among those hit the hardest by a shrinking property market.\u00a0Nine<\/p>\n

Renters<\/p>\n

Renters are among the biggest losers of the property price downturn.<\/p>\n

Spooked investors have responded to the property tax changes through nationwide rental increases.<\/p>\n

Combined capital city house rents jumped by $20 over the June quarter, which was the strongest annual growth in two years.<\/p>\n

The national median weekly advertised rent also increased 3.1 per cent to $670.<\/p>\n

Torres said she knew renters would be hit the hardest as soon as the government delivered the May federal budget.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of people I know are self-employed and have investment properties… three of them immediately called the real estate agents, saying to increase the rent,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cRenters are definitely at the top of this list.\u201d<\/p>\n

Business owners<\/p>\n

One of the more unexpected losers of the price downturn are the already-struggling small business owners.<\/a><\/p>\n

Torres said self-employed Australians have noticed a reduction in cash flow as sellers pull their homes off the market and buyers hold fire.<\/p>\n

She said businesses including moving companies, property photographers, conveyancers, building and pest report providers and tradies are losing business.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not just the property market itself; it trickles down significantly. Most of them are small business owners,\u201d Torres explained.<\/p>\n

\u201cTheir cash flow is definitely tightening up.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re sitting quite close to the point where changes in household confidence, borrowing capacity and business investment actually show up in real transactions.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A softer market has been a Godsend for many first homebuyers.\u00a0Peter Rae. <\/p>\n

Investors<\/p>\n

Many investors have all but abandoned the residential market in the wake of the property tax changes.<\/p>\n

Investor loans have dropped by 15.75 per cent in the 12-month period ending in August 2026, according to data from Loan Market.<\/p>\n

And those with multiple properties are expected to lose the most wealth as their property portfolio drops and interest rates increase.<\/p>\n

\u201cMum and dad investors who had the aspiration of building wealth for their retirement… now all of a sudden it\u2019s not an option there,\u201d Torres said.<\/p>\n

Mortgage brokers<\/p>\n

Brokers are facing an unprecedented drop in new loan applications, which is a healthy chunk of their business.<\/p>\n

According to Loan Market data, first-home buyer loans are down 12 per cent comparing August 2026 to August 2025.<\/p>\n

Some brokers claim they have lost more than 50 per cent of their business.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the last 10 years, I would think this is the biggest slump, driven mostly by the property prices,\u201d senior mortgage broker Prakash Rai of Home Loan Experts previously told\u00a0nine.com.au.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s not much transaction happening at the moment, people aren\u2019t selling and because they aren\u2019t selling, there\u2019s not many new stocks in the market.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s housing market has weathered a remarkably sharp price downturn since May, resulting in a ripple effect of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":605007,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":["post-605006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-il","tag-israel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=605006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605006\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/605007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=605006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=605006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=605006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}