The federal government\u2019s August jobs report is widely expected to show a continuation of this summer\u2019s soft hiring numbers, just one month after the labor market contracted by 23,000 jobs.<\/p>\n
Ahead of the report\u2019s release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected overall hiring of 53,000 roles in August and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. <\/p>\n
If those predictions prove accurate, it would mark the third weakest month for overall hiring so far this year.<\/p>\n
Economists also expect anemic wage growth of 0.3% month-over-month and 3% on an annual basis.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe would not be surprised to see wage growth even softer,\u201d wrote Citi\u2019s Veronica Clark, whose overall wage expectations were in line with consensus.<\/p>\n
A slowing pace of wage growth would come at a difficult time for consumers, especially those in lower income tiers. <\/p>\n
The inflation rate in July was 3.4% from a year ago, but that was before energy prices started climbing again.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, the international crude oil benchmark Brent surpassed $97 per barrel before closing around $95. Since Aug. 4, the price of Brent has risen more than 20%. <\/p>\n
August inflation data won\u2019t be released until Sept. 11. But any uptick from July would widen the gap between wage growth and rising prices.<\/p>\n
August is also a historically weak month for U.S. job growth. <\/p>\n
The August jobs report has fallen short of expectations in 11 of the last 16 years, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n
\u201cGrowth on average has been slow in each of the last couple summers,\u201d wrote JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart in a Thursday note. \u201cPrivate jobs have fallen in August in each of the last two years.\u201d<\/p>\n
This August could look even worse. \u201cAnother consideration is the end of Temporary Protected Status for around 350,000 Haitians on July 27,\u201d he wrote, \u201cAt which point any work permits obtained via this status were terminated.\u201d<\/p>\n
Several private sector indicators ahead of Friday\u2019s report also had economists and investors bracing for a weak number.<\/p>\n
ADP\u2019s payroll report on Wednesday showed private employers tracked by the firm added only 38,000 positions in August. It also found that companies with over 500 employees added the lion\u2019s share of roles in August \u2014 but that medium-sized firms did not add any jobs at all. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe labor market\u2019s summer soft patch extended into August,\u201d wrote Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling. The firm estimated that only 8,000 jobs had been added in August, based on data from the 401(k) plans that it runs for millions of companies.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe slowdown appears to be concentrated in recruiting rather than workforce reductions,\u201d he wrote. This leaves \u201cnew labor force entrants and those seeking employment facing the most difficult conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The federal government\u2019s August jobs report is widely expected to show a continuation of this summer\u2019s soft hiring…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":605571,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[114,184,85,46],"class_list":["post-605570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-il","tag-israel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=605570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605570\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/605571"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=605570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=605570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=605570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}