{"id":611107,"date":"2026-09-09T21:40:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T21:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/611107\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T21:40:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T21:40:09","slug":"taylor-swift-grammy-chances-for-i-knew-it-i-knew-you-fate-of-ophelia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/611107\/","title":{"rendered":"Taylor Swift Grammy Chances for I Knew It I Knew You, Fate of Ophelia"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tThere are two points of view you could take on Taylor Swift<\/a> and her Grammys<\/a> history: (a) Swift has been a Grammys hoarder. (b) Swift has gotten robbed by the Recording Academy\u2026 regularly. Which of these contradictory statements is true?<\/p>\n

\n\tHow about both of them? They\u2019re not actually as oxymoronic as they appear; it just depends which categories you\u2019re considering. On the one hand, Swift is the all-time top honoree when it comes to Album of the Year, having picked it up four times (for \u201cFearless,\u201d \u201c1989,\u201d \u201cFolklore\u201d and \u201cMidnights,\u201d spread out over a period of 14 years). She got so much attention for that record-shattering four-peat that there may be a popular perception that she\u2019s already won enough Grammys for one person\u2019s lifetime. In all, she\u2019s picked up 14.<\/p>\n

\n\tBut here\u2019s what very few people realize, or remember: She has never won Record of the Year or Song of the Year. That\u2019s not a misprint. The biggest pop music star of the 21st century, and the one with the most No. 1 Hot 100 hits this century \u2014 15 \u2014 has never been rewarded in either of the two all-genre Grammy categories that honor singles. Whether you love her, can\u2019t stand her or fall somewhere in-between, that oversight for someone who is quantifiably the modern era\u2019s most reliable crafter of indelible songs is kind of flabbergasting to consider.<\/p>\n

\n\tNow, if things had to be that lopsided, and Swift had to pick just one of the Grammys\u2019 top three categories in which to be such a dominative force, she\u2019d probably say she was happy where she landed. She\u2019s long talked about how happy she is to have helped keep the album format alive, as an artform and a commercial force, in the age of quick-hit streaming. But we can also guess that she\u2019s competitive enough that the shutouts for record and song have to nag at her. They\u2019re certainly seen as sins of omission in the world of Swifties who pay lasting and unforgiving attention to perceived snubs.<\/p>\n

\n\tIs this the year for Swift to finally make up for lost time in either Record or Song, or both? It\u2019s fair to say she is coming into the nominating process well-armed. Of those aforementioned 15 No. 1 hits, three of them came within the eligibility period for the 2027 Grammys, which just ended \u2014 and no other artist can similarly lay a claim to three recent charttoppers. It seems like quite an advantage, having taken \u201cThe Life of Ophelia,\u201d \u201cOpalite\u201d and \u201cI Knew It, I Knew You\u201d to the summit, all in short order,<\/p>\n

\n\tExcept, of course, for the part where she has to pick just one.<\/p>\n

\n\tThat\u2019s not literally accurate; Swift or her team would be free to submit multiple entries in the same category, to put on the general ballot that will go out to Recording Academy voters on Oct. 12. But obviously she won\u2019t, as fortune favors jockeys who don\u2019t attempt to race astride two (or more) horses at once. So there\u2019s a slight bit of suspense as to which of the three smashes Swift and team will place their bets on.<\/p>\n

\n\tHere at Variety, we are fairly certain we\u2019ve figured out what the plan of attack will be. So jump ahead to the end if you can\u2019t stand waiting. But if you want to know what the arguments are, here are some of the pluses and minuses Camp Swift will definitely have considered in deciding what to formally submit for election.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cOpalite.\u201d This is the one we can fairly safely rule out as something Swift might pick for a single submission in a top Grammy category. We render that judgment with a bit of sorrow, because Variety\u2019s critic is on record as having chosen \u201cOpalite\u201d as the most ineluctably catchy and fun song of all the material on her \u201cThe Life of a Showgirl\u201d album. If that opinion was widely shared \u2014 and we do have company in that! \u2014 this would seemingly make it a natural pick for a Record of the Year slot (if less so Song, which is more about the writing than the vibe). Yet even though it made it No. 1, an honor afforded very few songs in a calendar year, it wasn\u2019t a multi-week No. 1. It\u2019s just starting the race too far behind the other two tunes in terms of perceived impact.<\/p>\n

\n\tWhy wasn\u2019t \u201cOpalite\u201d a longer-lasting No. 1, when it was such a fan favorite from the moment \u201cShowgirl\u201d came out last October? Partly because it was a victim of the success of \u201cOphelia\u201d and that song\u2019s massive tail. Before it ever officially became a single, the streaming for \u201cOpalite\u201d was spread out over months and months. As an album track, it debuted at No. 2 on the Hot 100 the week \u201cShowgirl\u201d came out, and it remained in the top 10, on and off for 14 weeks prior to ever getting a music video or getting a radio push. But \u201cOphelia\u201d was so huge, it soon became apparent that it had a shot at breaking Swift\u2019s personal record for the most weeks one of her singles spent at No. 1, which surely was one reason why it kept getting pushed and \u201cOpalite\u201d kept getting pushed back. Eventually \u201cOphelia\u201d hit the 10-week mark, a rare feat. When it was finally time to move on after that, \u201cOpalite\u201d had already been consumed in such mass quantities that it couldn\u2019t stay on top for long. But in an alternate universe, the two \u201cO\u201d songs might have switched places and \u201cOpalite\u201d would have benefited from the more advantageous slot.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cThe Fate of Ophelia<\/a>.\u201d The song\u2019s 10 weeks at No. 1 set a personal high mark for Swift, as noted above. Would anyone have picked a song named after a drowned Shakespeare character to be Swift\u2019s longest running topper and, by some commercial standards, the biggest song of her career? She would have, and that\u2019s the only pre-release forecasting that counts. It broke both the single-day and single-week streaming records on Spotify. But its fate was really tied to viewing as much as pure listening, thanks to a Swift-directed music video that had the star and backup dancers romping through a variety of soundstage settings, imagining her as everything from a silent-movie damsel in distress to a \u201960s go-go girl.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe real fate of \u201cThe Fate of Ophelia\u201d wasn\u2019t really measured in numbers, though. It was in TikTok clips and Instagram Stories and Facebook reels, etc., as the dance moves seen in the music video got memorized and charmingly copied by millions of users. Mostly by kids, yes, but some of the more novel adoptees really went viral. Moms and grandmas doing the \u201cOphelia\u201d steps? Dog trainers making up modified choreography to get their German shepherds into the action? The craze had a sweetness to it. All these reenactors clearly weren\u2019t being force-fed a hit. They were taking it to their hearts because it made them want to step lively. And anybody in the Recording Academy who either watched all those homemade clips or had a kid who did may feel that affection bubbling up again when they see \u201cOphelia\u201d on their ballot.<\/p>\n

\n\tIf they see \u201cOphelia\u201d on their ballot, that is. Because we haven\u2019t forgotten the third contender from her recent catalog, one that would seem to have equally as good a case as this to be put in front of Academy voters next month\u2026<\/p>\n

\n\t\u201cI Knew It, I Knew You.\u201d It\u2019s easy to tick off the reasons why Swift might choose her theme song for \u201cToy Story 5\u201d over either of the songs from \u201cThe Life of a Showgirl\u201d:<\/p>\n

\n\tRecency bias. Of course it\u2019s fresher in people\u2019s minds than \u201cThe Fate of Ophelia,\u201d which came out early in the eligibility period last October, and will be just over a year old when voters receive their ballots in six weeks. The Disney\/Pixar tune only came out in June, a full eight months later, which has to count as an advantage, even if all release dates ought to be equal. (To quote \u201cThe Fantasticks\u201d: Try to remember \/ The kind of October \/ When that ancient autumn smash came out\u2026)<\/p>\n

\n\tThe blockbuster movie factor. A star as big as Swift can\u2019t exactly be seen as riding another franchise\u2019s coattails; when this single was released, the blowout unveiling created such a stir, you almost could have thought \u201cTS5\u201d was looking to ride hers, as much as anything. But we do have to consider that there will be Grammy voters, mostly older, who managed never to hear \u201cOphelia,\u201d through Swift indifference or a general seclusion from contemporary hits, who will have been exposed to \u201cI Knew It\u2026\u201d because they do not wall themselves off from the biggest or most critically appreciated movies of the year. And unless they fled for the exits at the first sign of a credit, they got a swift dose of the star at her winsomest.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe gentle factor and the country factor. Again, older voters who find a lot of contemporary pop assaultive may have a sweet spot for a Swift song that is this easy on the ears. And her return to a country-pop sound, after so many years in a different lane, may sit well with the Nashville contingent, since she made such a concerted effort to court country radio and make it sound as if, in her heart, she\u2019d never left. Of course, she\u2019ll have to deal with country-inclined voters being tempted to peel off for Ella Langley\u2019s \u201cChoosin\u2019 Texas,\u201d so there\u2019s that. But after years and years of country being ignored by the Grammys in the top three categories (which Variety published a commentary about last year), it will be interesting if Swift and Langley together should offer the Academy an irresistible chance to put two country tunes among the finalists for top honors.<\/p>\n

\n\tSurprising longevity. \u201cI Knew It\u2026\u201d hasn\u2019t quite rivaled \u201cOphelia\u201d on every numbers scale \u2014 but for just about anyone else, this might be the song of their career. The fact that \u201cToy Story 5\u201d has slipped down the box-office charts a little after making a gazillion dollars has not resulted in much slippage for Swift\u2019s song. It currently stands at No. 3 on the Hot 100, and seems pretty locked into that slot, after 12 weeks of release. Songs attached to animated films usually have a limited shelf life, but this one is showing the very rare longevity of a \u201cWe Don\u2019t Care About Bruno\u201d or \u201cA Whole New World,\u201d with a twangy twist. When home video hits, the renewal it could enjoy is anyone\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n

\n\tShe wants a damn Oscar. Well, we\u2019re presuming\u2026 but doesn\u2019t everybody? Perhaps the biggest factor for \u201cI Knew It\u2026\u201d possibly being Swift\u2019s pick for a Grammy campaign is that she can double it up with an Academy Awards campaign.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe idea that \u201cI Knew It\u2026\u201d might be her preference to put in front of Grammy voters certainly got a big boost when she recently appeared in front of members of the Academy\u2019s songwriters\u2019 wing for an exclusive, invite-only Grammy Museum appearance. In the Q&A she did with Academy CEO Harvey Mason Jr., she didn\u2019t really play any cards as far as discussing any of the eligible songs. But when she took to the piano for a climactic performance that was later released to the public on video, Swift did an Eras Tour-style mashup of three songs she felt were related, in terms of dealing with memory. \u201cI Knew It, I Knew You\u201d was one of those three songs. It felt like a choice.<\/p>\n

\n\tSo which will it be?<\/p>\n

\n\tThe verdict: A split decision. Of course, artists have the option of submitting different songs for Record and Song of the Year, although in most cases they\u2019ll go with the same tune for both. But everything we sense about which direction Swift will go leads us to believe that she will lay different bets on both numbers, when both have so much going for them (and in the case of \u201cI Knew It\u2026,\u201d still so much at stake with other awards shows).<\/p>\n

\n\tFor Record of the Year, we prophecize that she will go with \u201cThe Fate of Ophelia.\u201d It\u2019s a category where bops often stand a better chance than ballads. And for Song of the Year, she can favor \u201cI Knew It, I Knew You,\u201d where it\u2019s a little easier to pick out her songwriting chops from the production choices, and which has some very notable nostalgic lyricism sprinkled in among the kind of lyrics that a tyke can still reasonably grasp. There\u2019s no real reason to think that her chances in either category would be diminished by not favoring the same song in both.<\/p>\n

\n\tHave we pegged this correctly? Check back Oct. 12, when the not-entirely-secret preliminary ballot goes out to voting Academy members, and we\u2019ll know for sure whether she employed a split strategy and we really are knew-it-alls.<\/p>\n

\n\t[This is the first in a series of columns looking at the prospects for the 2027 Grammy Awards.]<\/p>\n

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