Turkey\u2019s growing influence has alarmed Israel, which views the prospect of entrenched Turkish military power on Syrian territory as a \u201cdirect strategic threat,\u201d according to an analysis for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies\u00a0<\/p>\n
Tensions between Israel and Turkey have continued to make headlines, especially since the fall of Bashar Assad\u2019s regime in Syria nearly two years ago and the rise of a new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has longstanding ties to Turkey.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Since al-Sharaa came to power, Ankara has provided Damascus with military assistance, diplomatic and political backing, and economic support, while expanding its own security footprint inside Syria.\u00a0<\/p>\n
As such, according to Liron Rose, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) major (res.) and host of The Owl (Ha-Yanshuf) podcast, \u201cthe best we can hope for from Turkey is that the situation will not deteriorate even further.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
As long as we are strong and dominant in this region, Turkey will be hostile<\/p>\n
He told The Media Line that the train has left the station and that there is little Israel can do today to fundamentally shift the relationship.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cAs long as we are strong and dominant in this region, Turkey will be hostile,\u201d Rose said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Those tensions became more concrete last month after Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria. Israel said the strike was intended to prevent Turkish troops from deploying there, while Turkey rejected Israel\u2019s account of an imminent deployment. The episode nevertheless raised concerns that the confrontation between the two countries could move beyond hostile rhetoric and into the military arena.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ziya Meral, director of Raven Research and Advisory, a global risk consultancy in London, told The New York Times last month that if tensions continued to increase, even limited military action by one side \u201ccould really, really backfire.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Turkey has emerged as one of the leading patrons of Syria\u2019s new government<\/p>\n
In an analysis for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Sinan Ciddi, Turkey program director and senior fellow, and Ahmad Sharawi, senior research analyst, wrote that \u201cTurkey has emerged as one of the leading patrons of Syria\u2019s new government.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cAnkara now provides Damascus with military assistance, political backing, economic support, and international legitimacy, while deepening its own security footprint inside Syria,\u201d they wrote.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But the authors also noted that Turkey\u2019s growing influence has alarmed Israel, which increasingly views the prospect of entrenched Turkish military power on Syrian territory as a \u201cdirect strategic threat.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
To keep that threat from spiraling into a confrontation, Rose told The Media Line that \u201cwe need to make sure we\u2019re not cutting off all the communication channels with Turkey.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
He said communication continues behind the scenes, including coordination on certain issues, even if it is not publicly discussed.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The relationship also retains practical and economic ties despite the increasingly hostile rhetoric. For example, oil continues to flow from Azerbaijan to Israel through a pipeline that crosses Turkey. Rose also said Israeli airlines continue to fly through Turkish airspace. And while Turkey has officially moved to block bilateral trade with Israel, Rose said goods continue to move through third parties and other arrangements.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u201cTurkey realizes that the Turkish economy needs this,\u201d Rose said. \u201cSo on paper they\u2019re not trading with Israel. Practically, there\u2019s a few billion dollars of trade.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Since the October 7 Hamas massacre and Israel\u2019s subsequent war in Gaza, the rhetoric from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has grown increasingly hostile. Most recently, Erdogan described Zionism as a \u201cgenocidal ideology\u201d and accused Israel of operating what he called a \u201cgenocide network.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
That rhetoric, combined with Turkey\u2019s expanding regional ambitions and military capabilities, has fueled concern in Israel about where the relationship could be headed.\u00a0<\/p>\n
As Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an Israeli expert on Turkey, told Israel\u2019s 103FM in August, \u201cTurkey\u2019s way of warfare is not that of some rickety Arab country, but rather NATO\u2019s way of warfare. We are talking about a very high standard, and we have to think about that.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Turkey\u2019s way of warfare is not that of some rickety Arab country, but rather NATO\u2019s way of warfare<\/p>\n
But Rose said he does not believe Turkey will invade Israel. Turkey, he said, understands that Israel maintains significant military and technological advantages and that Israel has demonstrated its ability to strike senior leaders and targets far beyond its borders, as it did in Iran.\u00a0<\/p>\n
At the same time, he said, Turkey wants Israel to view it \u201cas a very strong country, which means Israel will need to be careful.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
For now, then, the relationship appears caught between two realities: growing strategic competition and hostility on one side, and continued communication and practical cooperation on the other.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t see Turkey and Israel becoming friendly, especially not under this particular leadership,\u201d Rose concluded.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
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