WMO<\/a>) says the climate pattern is strengthening rapidly and its effects are already being felt in climate-sensitive sectors.\u00a0<\/p>\n\u201cWe expect this El Ni\u00f1o to be very strong. That\u2019s actually the top classification that we have. We don\u2019t go stronger than that\u201d, a spokesperson said this Tuesday in Geneva.<\/p>\n
It is expected to peak towards the end of the year, but WMO cautions that \u201cthe peak is a forecast, not a finish line\u201d. The impacts will continue well beyond it.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have the forecast. We have the science,\u201d WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has said, underscoring how much more governments now know about the risks before they materialize.<\/p>\n
While WMO tracks the large-scale changes taking place across the Pacific, FAO adds another layer: more than four decades of data on how previous strong El Ni\u00f1o events affected agriculture.<\/p>\n
By combining that record with current conditions, seasonal forecasts and information on food insecurity, FAO can narrow the risk considerably. In some cases, its mapping can identify vulnerable areas at a resolution of roughly one square kilometre, helping governments decide where and when to act first.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen you put these two pieces of information together, you get a fairly good idea of where the big El Ni\u00f1o impacts are going to be and how they\u2019re going to undermine food and food security,\u201d Mr. Zahedi said.<\/p>\n
FAO sees a high chance of agricultural drought in Southern Africa and the Sahel, Central America\u2019s Dry Corridor and parts of South and Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, heavier rainfall and flooding may pose a greater threat, while unusually warm waters can disrupt fisheries and coastal livelihoods.<\/p>\n
The consequences are not theoretical. During the 2023 to 2024 strong El Ni\u00f1o event, Morocco\u2019s cereal yields fell by 43 per cent amid extreme heat and drought. In Southern Africa, the region endured its worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance and pushing more than eight million into food insecurity, while poor harvests also drove up the prices of some staple foods across the world.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have a glimpse of what happened last time when we weren\u2019t prepared,\u201d Zahedi said.<\/p>\n
\u00a9FAO\/Roberto Schmidt
\n Kaveh Zahedi, FAO Assistant Director-General and head of the Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment.<\/p>\n
Climate adaptation on a \u2018shorter clock\u2019<\/p>\n
Preparation can be surprisingly practical: drought-resistant seeds, better water storage, healthier soils, protection for livestock, and warnings that reach farmers early enough to change planting dates or crops.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s plenty we can do,\u201d Mr. Zahedi said. \u201cWe have a lead time\u2026 [but] we\u2019ve got to act quickly because the window is shrinking,\u201d he said. \u201cWe have to get these measures in place by February, March to, in essence, safeguard the next harvest.\u201d<\/p>\n
The same investments that help farmers through El Ni\u00f1o are also the ones they need for a hotter and less predictable climate. Better water management, early warnings, resilient crops and livestock, healthier soils and stronger ecosystems all serve both purposes. In FAO\u2019s formulation, preparing for El Ni\u00f1o is climate adaptation on a shorter clock.<\/p>\n
Yet there’s less and less money reaching agrifood systems.<\/p>\n
A forthcoming FAO analysis finds that climate-related development finance for agrifood systems dropped by 10 per cent in 2024, to $26.9 billion. Crops, livestock, forestry, and fisheries received only about five per cent of total climate-related development finance. In Africa, such financing fell by 20 per cent even as overall climate-related development finance to the continent increased.<\/p>\n
\u201cNot enough is going into the productive sectors and building that resilience,\u201d Mr. Zahedi said. \u201cThat needs to increase if we want to safeguard food security, especially in an El Ni\u00f1o year.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9 WFP\/Ana Mato Hombre
\n Mozambique. Impact of El Nino induced drought in Manica province.<\/p>\n
Before the next crisis<\/p>\n
That argument will follow world leaders into Wednesday\u2019s Climate Summit<\/a> at UN Headquarters, where adaptation and finance are expected to feature prominently.<\/p>\nEl Ni\u00f1o adds urgency to the debate. Its arrival cannot be prevented, but many of its likely impacts can already be mapped, and in some of the places at greatest risk there are still months in which governments can act.<\/p>\n
\u201cInvesting in adaptation in El Ni\u00f1o is a no-brainer,\u201d Mr. Zahedi said. \u201cRight now, we have a window of opportunity.\u201d<\/p>\n
For FAO, that investment is not only about protecting agriculture from climate shocks. It is also about using agriculture itself as part of the solution.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re not just positioning it as saying they are being impacted or they are the victims, but rather demonstrating that they have solutions,\u201d Mr. Zahedi said.<\/p>\n
Restoring degraded land, expanding agroforestry and making livestock and aquaculture more sustainable, he added, can strengthen resilience while also supporting food security, biodiversity and efforts to cut emissions.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no better investment in climate, or in food security, probably in biodiversity as well, than agrifood system solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A chilly, wet Tuesday morning greeted presidents and prime ministers arriving at United Nations Headquarters in New York…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":625697,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[242,85,46,141],"class_list":["post-625696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625696","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=625696"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/625696\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/625697"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=625696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=625696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=625696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}