{"id":626295,"date":"2026-09-24T19:04:08","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T19:04:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/626295\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T19:04:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T19:04:08","slug":"ag-economist-diesel-prices-could-remain-high-for-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/626295\/","title":{"rendered":"Ag economist: Diesel prices could remain high for years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Diesel fuel prices are likely to remain high for at least the next year, squeezing farmers\u2019 profit margins and eventually hitting consumers, according to a Kansas State University agricultural economist.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ageconomics.k-state.edu\/about\/people\/directory\/faculty_directory\/ibendahl\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Gregg Ibendahl<\/a>, a farm management specialist with <a href=\"https:\/\/extension.k-state.edu\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">K-State Extension<\/a>, monitors European natural gas prices as a driver for fertilizer prices and tracks global oil prices to estimate market shifts. In a recent analysis, he said that while part of the increase in diesel prices can be traced to higher crude oil prices, the larger driver is a global shortage of diesel fuel.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe price of oil has gone from the low to mid-$70s to more than $100 a barrel, and that probably explains about 70 cents of the increase per gallon,\u201d Ibendahl said. \u201cBut diesel is up more than that. The rest is really because there just isn&#8217;t enough diesel fuel in the world right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Michigan saw the nation\u2019s highest spike in gas prices (+46.7 cents) and second-highest jump in diesel prices (+64.6 cents) last week, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.michiganfarmnews.com\/fuel-fertilizer-price-tracker\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Click here<\/a> to see the latest prices in the Michigan Farm News Fuel &amp; Fertilizer Price Tracker.<\/p>\n<p>Global supply disruptions drive diesel prices higher<\/p>\n<p>U.S. refineries are operating at about 98% capacity \u2014 which is \u201cas hard as they can,\u201d according to Ibendahl. But global supplies have tightened sharply due to geopolitical disruptions.<\/p>\n<p>Russia, historically a major exporter of diesel fuel, has reduced shipments after refinery damage from drone attacks during its war with Ukraine. In addition, flows through key shipping routes such as the Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz have been curtailed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.michiganfarmnews.com\/about\/news-media\/continued-chaos-diesel-gas-prices-expected-after-attacks-global-energy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">READ NEXT: &#8216;CONTINUED CHAOS&#8217; FOR DIESEL, GAS PRICES EXPECTED AFTER ATTACKS ON GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cRussia is still producing oil but can&#8217;t get it refined easily because of damage to its refineries,\u201d Ibendahl said. \u201cThey&#8217;ve essentially shut off diesel exports to Europe, and there&#8217;s not much moving through the Gulf, either. That&#8217;s created a very real shortage.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, strong overseas demand is drawing U.S. supplies offshore. Ibendahl said about 30% of the diesel produced in the U.S. is being exported, tightening domestic availability and adding further upward pressure to prices.<\/p>\n<p>Higher fuel costs squeeze farmers and consumers<\/p>\n<p>While Ibendahl noted the major price pressure higher diesel costs are putting on farmers \u2014 especially entering harvest season \u2014 he said consumers may not see a sharp jump in grocery prices due directly to grain costs, since raw commodities represent a relatively small portion of the final retail price.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Ibendahl expects higher diesel prices to ultimately impact transportation and logistics.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe move practically everything in this country by truck, and almost all of those trucks run on diesel,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you&#8217;re a trucking company right now, you&#8217;re in a world of hurt. Those higher fuel costs will eventually be passed along.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Major retailers may be able to absorb some of the shock initially, but Ibendahl said they cannot do so indefinitely.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA company like Walmart might treat trucking as a small part of its overall business, but it still matters,\u201d he said. &#8220;They can&#8217;t eat those costs forever. Over time, consumers are going to feel higher diesel prices, even if they&#8217;re not buying diesel themselves.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ibendahl expects diesel prices to remain elevated \u2014 possibly in the $6 to $7 per gallon range \u2014 for a year or more, barring a rapid easing of global tensions and a resumption of normal fuel flows from major producing regions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven in a best-case scenario, where the war in Ukraine winds down quickly and shipments through the Gulf normalize, it could easily take six months for the market to adjust,\u201d he said. \u201cTo see prices return to what we had earlier this year could take up to two years, even if everything goes right.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Diesel fuel prices are likely to remain high for at least the next year, squeezing farmers\u2019 profit margins&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":626296,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[114,85,46],"class_list":["post-626295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-il","tag-israel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=626295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/626295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/626296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=626295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=626295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=626295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}