Fast facts<\/p>\n
More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories are expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026 due to El Ni\u00f1o, increasing the risk of extreme floods and droughts with potentially devastating consequences, according to latest UNICEF<\/a> data.<\/p>\n Here are highlights of the risks facing children:<\/p>\n As extreme weather events become more widespread, youngsters could face increased risks of family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriageColombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines are among those expected to experience drier conditions that could likely to lead to drought and water scarcity, increasing displacement and worsening acute malnutritionIn the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions could trigger flash flooding, spread water-borne diseases and disrupt schoolingIn crisis and conflict-affected countries such as Afghanistan and Chad, El Ni\u00f1o can be a direct threat to survival, worsening hunger and malnutrition among already vulnerable childrenEvery $1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to $15 in recovery costs, yet less than one per cent of humanitarian funding currently goes to anticipatory action<\/p>\n The 2026-2027 El Ni\u00f1o is forecast to become one of the strongest on record, threatening to intensify drought, floods and other weather extremes across countries already grappling with food insecurity, displacement and economic pressures.<\/p>\n Children on the frontlines, again<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o can shift rainfall patterns thousands of kilometres from the tropical Pacific, leaving some regions facing drought and water shortages while others contend with heavier rains, flooding and heightened disease risks.<\/p>\n More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories could be exposed to unusually dry or wet conditions between October and December because of El Ni\u00f1o, the UN Children\u2019s Fund (UNICEF) warns in a new\u00a0analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cFor children, El Ni\u00f1o is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks,\u201d\u00a0said<\/a> UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. \u201cChildren are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship.\u201d<\/p>\n Already, 1.1 billion children \u2013 nearly half of the world\u2019s children \u2013 are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate-related hazards such as drought, extreme heat or floods.<\/p>\n In Papua New Guinea, impact is already here<\/p>\n Some of those consequences are already visible in Papua New Guinea, a mountainous Pacific island nation where remote terrain and difficult logistics have complicated responses to previous droughts. El Ni\u00f1o conditions have been present since mid-2026 and are forecast to peak between October and December.<\/p>\n In September, the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 index \u2013 a measure of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific used to track El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 surpassed those recorded during every previous El Ni\u00f1o event, including 1997 and 2015.<\/p>\n The Government, which declared the event in June, has established a dedicated task force and approved a $112 million supplementary budget.<\/p>\n Yet, needs are mounting.<\/p>\n Some 1.2 million people are\u00a0estimated<\/a> to require direct food relief, with water shortages, crop losses, dwindling food reserves and higher prices already reported. Schools are being disrupted and concerns are growing over health, nutrition and bushfires.<\/p>\n The largest impacts on agriculture and food security are expected from November.<\/p>\n One ocean, very different extremes<\/p>\n What dries out one part of the world can bring deluges to another.<\/p>\n Across the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions could raise the risk of river and flash flooding, increase the spread of waterborne diseases and disrupt schooling.<\/p>\n In the wider region \u2013 including Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan \u2013 children living amid conflict and displacement face particularly acute risks because El Ni\u00f1o can magnify existing hunger, malnutrition and difficulties accessing essential services.<\/p>\n A race to act early<\/p>\n For governments, the forecasts offer something disasters often do not: time.<\/p>\n Asia and the Pacific is expected to bear a particularly large share of the exposure, with some 190 million children \u2013 more than half of the global total identified by UNICEF \u2013 living in areas forecast to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December.<\/p>\n The World Food Programme (WFP<\/a>) is\u00a0urging<\/a> countries across the region to strengthen social protection systems that can rapidly expand when droughts, floods or economic shocks threaten household food security.<\/p>\n \u201cA flood, drought, or sudden economic shock can wipe out a family\u2019s progress in a matter of days,\u201d said Samir Wanmali, WFP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. \u201cSocial protection systems that are inclusive, nutrition-sensitive and ready to expand during a crisis can prevent a temporary shock from becoming a lasting setback.\u201d<\/p>\n \u00a9 UNICEF\/Laxmi-Prasad-Ngakhusi Lessons from a not-so-distant past<\/p>\n The urgency is sharpened by lessons from earlier El Ni\u00f1o episodes.<\/p>\n In\u00a0analysis<\/a> published in May, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP<\/a>) pointed to the 2015-16 event as a warning of how climate extremes can cascade through economies and societies.\u00a0<\/p>\n More than 70 per cent of Southeast Asia\u2019s land area experienced drought during that episode, exposing more than 200 million people to severe drought at its peak.<\/p>\n The pressures this time are unfolding against tighter government finances, elevated debt and persistent economic uncertainty and supply chain worries, potentially reducing the ability of governments and households to absorb another shock.<\/p>\n Warmer world raises the stakes<\/p>\n Meanwhile, climate change is raising the baseline risk. Higher temperatures accelerate the loss of moisture from soil and vegetation, potentially intensifying drought when rainfall falls short.<\/p>\n For governments, that means preparing for extremes in both directions \u2013 from failing rains, water shortages and crop losses to intense rainfall, flooding and landslides. The challenge is to turn forecasts into decisions before harvests fail, reservoirs run low or floods force families from their homes.<\/p>\n
\n Children sift through books and textbooks swept away by the recent devastating floods that hit Nuwakot district in Nepal. (file)<\/p>\n