{"id":642701,"date":"2026-10-11T01:08:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T01:08:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/642701\/"},"modified":"2026-10-11T01:08:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-11T01:08:34","slug":"hoping-for-a-new-normal-climate-is-pointless-we-must-learn-to-adapt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/642701\/","title":{"rendered":"Hoping for a \u2018new normal\u2019 climate is pointless. We must learn to adapt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate change is worsening. There\u2019s now no chance<\/a> of holding temperature rise to 1.5\u00b0C. The future will bring worsening floods<\/a>, glacial melt, megafires<\/a> and lethal heat<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But can we call this the \u201cnew normal<\/a>\u201d? The phrase has become common<\/a> in discussions<\/a> about the upheavals<\/a> and damage stemming from human-caused climate change. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s human nature to want the future to be predictable: we are creatures of routine. If the Earth\u2019s climate really was going to settle into a \u201cnew normal\u201d at 1.5\u00b0C of warming, we would find the idea comforting. <\/p>\n

Unfortunately, it\u2019s not true. Passing the 1.5\u00b0C threshold isn\u2019t like stepping from one state into another. Global emissions of greenhouse gases are slowing, but have not yet peaked<\/a> \u2013 let alone begun to fall. That means further heat, greater change and more climate uncertainty. <\/p>\n

Many different futures are possible after 1.5\u00b0C. As Australia\u2019s National Climate Risk Assessment<\/a> spelled out last year, our future looks very different at 2\u00b0C. At 2.5\u00b0C, it\u2019s something else again. At 3\u00b0C, it\u2019s unrecognisable. Thinking of any of these futures as a new normal invites a dangerous misunderstanding of future risk.<\/p>\n

What is a \u2018normal climate\u2019 anyway?<\/p>\n

By \u201cnormal\u201d, we mean usual and expected \u2013 a situation following predictable patterns<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\u201cClimate\u201d isn\u2019t day to day weather: it\u2019s the statistical fingerprint of weather patterns over 30 years<\/a>, spanning typical weather through to rarer extremes. <\/p>\n

For many weather phenomena, we lack reliable long-term data. As a result, we are often surprised<\/a> by \u201cunprecedented\u201d events \u2013 even though some may actually sit within a pre-industrial natural range<\/a>, representing rare extremes our records haven\u2019t captured. <\/p>\n

As a result, we\u2019re exiting the old normal without having the data to fully understand what we\u2019re leaving behind<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What happens to \u2018normal\u2019?<\/p>\n

We might expect a steadily warming world will cause steady change to existing weather phenomena \u2013 hotter days, more rain, longer droughts. <\/p>\n

Unfortunately, our desire for predictability won\u2019t be satisfied here either. Weather will change unpredictably<\/a>, meaning we can expect new extremes as well as new combinations<\/a>, such as drought to flood climate whiplash<\/a> and pyrocumulus clouds (thunderstorms forming from bushfires), which were virtually unknown<\/a> a few decades ago. <\/p>\n

Once-rare weather extremes will arrive more often<\/a>, with more intensity and often lasting longer, like this year\u2019s record-breaking European heatwaves<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We can no longer take a 30-year average of past extreme weather and extrapolate that into the future. We don\u2019t know what will emerge as the atmosphere undergoes very rapid change at rates humans have never experienced. <\/p>\n

\"Image<\/a><\/p>\n

As the climate changes, historically rare events become more likely.
\n Author provided image, CC BY<\/a><\/p>\n

Can we adapt to the unknown?<\/p>\n

To date, much of the focus of global climate negotiations has been on mitigation \u2013 trying to stop climate change from getting worse by reducing emissions and protecting nature. Efforts to reduce emissions have helped<\/a>, but at nowhere near the scale needed. <\/p>\n

This failure to cut emissions has driven the view that climate change is inescapable. But this isn\u2019t helpful. We will have to learn to adapt<\/a> to the future climate. <\/p>\n

If this seems scary, it might help to remember that we haven\u2019t actually been in a stable climate state in our recent past. <\/p>\n

Climate-related risks have been growing (even without climate change) over the past century, because of the growth of cities, infrastructure, farms and more. <\/p>\n

Even without the influence of climate change, an intense heatwave, drought or bushfire in Australia will play out over natural habitat which is more fragmented and degraded<\/a> than it used to be, making it harder for animals to escape. <\/p>\n

A strong coastal storm surge falling in a historically known range can reach more people, houses and businesses<\/a> than it would have just 50 years ago \u2013 because there are more people on the coasts. <\/p>\n

For these threats, climate change acts as a risk-multiplier. As temperatures climb and rainfall becomes more variable<\/a>, our ability to respond becomes more limited. <\/p>\n

\"boat<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s increasingly less useful to look to the past as a guide to the extreme weather of the future.
\n temizyurek\/Getty<\/a><\/p>\n

What can we do?<\/p>\n

Many people fear the uncertainty<\/a> of climate change. Some are already grieving<\/a> the current losses and those to come, or feel rage<\/a> at our unwillingness to change course. These responses are understandable. We must act in empowering and hopeful<\/a> ways \u2013 without shying away from the gravity of the task. <\/p>\n

If we take a longer view, we can see Homo sapiens are highly adaptable. Faced with these threats, we will look for ways to adapt and cope, as we have done for millennia<\/a>. <\/p>\n

If we give up on the comforting idea of normal \u2013 old and new \u2013 we can focus on practical measures. These include bringing climate adaptation to the fore while embracing a future of clean energy, electric transport and regenerative farming to help reduce emissions. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s a mistake to focus either on reducing emissions or adapting to a warming world \u2013 we need both. Adaptation will be easier if we limit future warming<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The first step is to give up the idea of a \u201cnew normal\u201d. We can no longer look to the past to predict the future climate, and we know that climate change will continue to intensify until such time as we stop it. We do not know what is to come.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Climate change is worsening. There\u2019s now no chance of holding temperature rise to 1.5\u00b0C. The future will bring…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":642702,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[242,85,46,141],"class_list":["post-642701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-il","tag-israel","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/642701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=642701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/642701\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/642702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=642701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=642701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=642701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}