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Another week has passed, and a level of uncertainty regarding the Oscar race has risen for some categories, while stabilizing for others. I have gone on the record saying the Best Picture seems much easier to predict compared to past years; this is a two-horse race, and really nothing is going to change that unless Dune: Part Three ends up being the big surprise of the year, though I have some doubts regarding that. It\u2019s probably best to focus on other categories for the next few weeks, and this week is a focus on Best Actor and Best Actress specifically.<\/p>\n
Best Actor<\/p>\n
This is one of those categories where the lineup seems down to about six or seven major performances and considering how far we are from the Oscar season, that\u2019s really saying something. Three locks seem destined<\/p>\n
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
\nAndrew Scott, Elsinore
\nJohn Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine<\/p>\n
Any of these three have a shot at winning, and the pathway is clear through critics, SAG, etc. The last two slots are down to a select few people that might include:<\/p>\n
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
\nTom Cruise, Digger
\nRobert Pattinson, Primetime
\nPedro Pascal, Behemoth!
\nAnthony Ippolito,\u00a0I Play Rocky<\/p>\n
There are a couple more names that can land a slot in the Oscar race, including John Turturro for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York and sight unseen, even Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet for Dune: Part Three, but it seems down to the top four above.<\/p>\n
Phil Lord and Chris Miller\u2019s film is being really elevated by a less-than-packed fall awards slate; Gosling\u2019s performance is in Project Hail Mary, and if one likes the film, one would have to at least respect the performance, so a spot in the top five makes a ton of sense.<\/p>\n
After having seen ADG\u2019s Digger, and even more amusingly, the industry push for the film, Cruise has a fighting shot at staying in the top five, especially as the performance and showcase of it all really does leave an impact on the viewer. However, this too is debatable this early out. The top five, as it stands of Damon, Scott, Malkovich, Gosling, and Cruise (which was my five for months before the initial Digger reactions), seems right now.<\/p>\n
For reference here is what the Award Expert Community is thinking for the category<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Best Actress <\/p>\n
Julianne Moore is likely winning for Jesse Eisenberg\u2019s The Debut. The role of a veteran actress portraying someone who has never acted before seems a bit on the nose and just too Oscar-baity to entirely root for (especially with some underdogs in the race that will be mentioned later in the post), but one cannot deny the strength of the performance after seeing it.<\/p>\n
The rest of the category can be defined by five or six other performances including<\/p>\n
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
\nInde Navarrette, Obsession
\nSandra H\u00fcller, Rose or Fatherland
\nRuth Madeley, Being Heumann \u00a0\u00a0
\nVirginie Efira, All of a Sudden<\/p>\n
Some will argue that Emily Blunt for Spielberg\u2019s Disclosure Day or even Juliette Binoche for Hammer\u2019s Queen at Sea can enter the five, and I can entertain those possibilities, but it will depend on how the season goes.<\/p>\n
Olivia Wilde very well might be on track to be the first woman nominated for acting and directing for the same film, and at this point, could be the runner-up to Moore. Unless Barker\u2019s film turns out to be too difficult for the Academy to absorb, Navarrette\u2019s performance resonates deeply and should get into any field. Sandra H\u00fcller is having a year, and with either Schleinzer\u2019s film or Pawlikowski\u2019s works (more likely the former), she should find a slot in here. For the last slot, I would put in Madeley for Heder\u2019s film, which seems very \u201csteak eater\u201d friendly in its presentation and role (biopic from a director of a previous Best Picture winner), so I put her in over Virginie Efira, though this will still be a close call until January.<\/p>\n
For reference here is what the Award Expert Community is thinking for this category<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/IMG_0173-138x300.png\")
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This week starts my \u201ccoverage\u201d of the Montclair Film Festival, which runs from this upcoming Friday, October 16th, until Sunday, October 25th, and I will see at the very least Si\u00e2n Heder\u2019s Being Heumann, Brad Bird\u2019s Ray Gunn, Peter Farrelly\u2019s I Play Rocky, Ryusuke Hamaguchi\u2019s All of a Sudden, and closing with Tony Gilroy\u2019s Behemoth! though there could be a few more that are also seen over this time period.<\/p>\n
Oscar Predictions for Week of 12 October, 2026<\/p>\n
A few changes have been made following last week<\/p>\n
Olivia Wilde is in Best Director over Denis Villeneuve for now. I am considering removing Cristian Mungiu, but the European nature of the directing branch makes me keep him in tentatively
\nTom Cruise for Digger has been moved back into the Best Actor five over Robert Pattinson
\nI Play Rocky has been moved into Best Casting over The Debut, I look forward to seeing it at Montclair and seeing if Ippolito can break the precedent of young actors.
\nYou Can See Everything has been moved to #1 for Best Documentary Feature over Naza (the former is opening in theaters this week, which will be a big get for the documentary)<\/p>\n
Alas, here they are<\/p>\n
Best Picture<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nWild Horse Nine
\nProject Hail Mary
\nThe Invite
\nDune: Part Three
\nThe Debut
\nObsession
\nI Play Rocky
\n\u00a0Fjord<\/p>\n
(alts: You Can See Everything, Digger, Club Kid, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)<\/p>\n
Best Director<\/p>\n
Christopher Nolan,\u00a0The Odyssey
\nJavier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo,\u00a0La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nMartin McDonagh,\u00a0Wild Horse Nine
\nOlivia Wilde, The Invite
\nCristian Mungiu,\u00a0Fjord\u00a0<\/p>\n
(alts: Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu,\u00a0Digger\u00a0Pawe\u0142 Pawlikowski,\u00a0Fatherland,\u00a0Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for\u00a0Project Hail Mary,\u00a0Denis Villeneuve,\u00a0Dune: Part Three\u00a0Steven Spielberg,\u00a0Disclosure Day)<\/p>\n
Best Actor<\/p>\n
Matt Damon,\u00a0The Odyssey
\nAndrew Scott,\u00a0Elsinore
\nJohn Malkovich,\u00a0Wild Horse Nine
\nRyan Gosling,\u00a0Project Hail Mary
\nTom Cruise,\u00a0Digger<\/p>\n
(alts: Robert Pattinson, Primetime Pedro Pascal,\u00a0Behemoth!\u00a0Tom Cruise,\u00a0Digger\u00a0Sebastian Stan,\u00a0Fjord\u00a0Brad Pitt,\u00a0The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Pedro Pascal,\u00a0Behemoth!,\u00a0John Turturro\u00a0The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson,\u00a0Michael)<\/p>\n
Best Actress<\/p>\n
Julianne Moore,\u00a0The Debut
\nInde Navarrette,\u00a0Obsession
\nSandra H\u00fcller,\u00a0Rose
\nRuth Madeley,\u00a0Being Heumann
\nOlivia Wilde, The Invite<\/p>\n
(alts: Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea\u00a0\u00a0Renate Reinsve,\u00a0Fjord\u00a0Mikey Madison,\u00a0The Social\u00a0Reckoning,\u00a0Sandra H\u00fcller,\u00a0Fatherland,\u00a0Emily Blunt,\u00a0Disclosure Day\u00a0)<\/p>\n
\u00a0Best Supporting Actor<\/p>\n
Guitarricadelafuente,\u00a0La Bola Negra
\nPaul Giamatti,\u00a0The Debut
\nSam Rockwell,\u00a0Wild Horse Nine
\nJohn Leguizamo,\u00a0The Odyssey
\nSteve Buscemi,\u00a0Wild Horse Nine<\/p>\n
(alts: Riz Ahmed,\u00a0Digger, Willem Dafoe,\u00a0Werwulf)<\/p>\n
\u00a0Best Supporting Actress<\/p>\n
Anne Hathaway,\u00a0The Odyssey
\nPen\u00e9lope Cruz,\u00a0La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nOlivia Colman,\u00a0Elsinore
\nSamantha Morton, The Odyssey
\nPen\u00e9lope Cruz, The Invite\u00a0<\/p>\n
(Alts:\u00a0Mariana Di Girolamo,\u00a0Wild Horse Nine\u00a0Sandra H\u00fcller, Digger\u00a0Tao Okamoto,\u00a0All of a Sudden\u00a0or Sandra H\u00fcller,\u00a0Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey \u00a0)<\/p>\n
Best Original Screenplay<\/p>\n
Wild Horse Nine
\nThe Debut
\nFjord
\nObsession
\nI Play Rocky<\/p>\n
(alts: Elsinore, and Club Kid)<\/p>\n
Best Adapted Screenplay<\/p>\n
Project Hail Mary
\nThe Odyssey
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nThe Invite
\nAll of a Sudden<\/p>\n
(alts: Ink, Being Heumann, Dune: Part Three)<\/p>\n
Best Casting<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nWild Horse Nine
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nObsession
\nThe Debut<\/p>\n
(alts: I Play Rocky,\u00a0Being Heumann, The Social Reckoning\u00a0and\u00a0Digger)<\/p>\n
Best International Feature<\/p>\n
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nFjord
\nAll of a Sudden
\nRose
\nMinotaur<\/p>\n
(Alternate: Possible Love and Fatherland)<\/p>\n
Best Animated Feature<\/p>\n
Wildwood
\nHoppers
\nToy Story 5
\nRay Gunn
\nForgotten Island<\/p>\n
Best Documentary Feature<\/p>\n
You Can See Everything
\nNaza
\nOnce Upon a Time in Harlem
\nAmerican Doctor
\nOne in a Million<\/p>\n
Best Cinematography<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nDune: Part Three
\nFatherland
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nWerwulf<\/p>\n
Best Editing<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nWild Horse Nine
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nProject Hail Mary
\nI Play Rocky<\/p>\n
Best Production Design<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nProject Hail Mary
\nDune: Part Three
\nLa Bola Negra
\nDigger<\/p>\n
Best Costume Design<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nWerwulf
\nSense and Sensibility
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nDune: Part Three<\/p>\n
Best Makeup and Hairstyling<\/p>\n
Werwulf
\nDigger
\nThe Odyssey
\nClayface
\nDune: Part Three<\/p>\n
Best Visual Effects<\/p>\n
Dune: Part Three
\nProject Hail Mary
\nThe Odyssey
\nGodzilla Minus Zero
\nWhalefall<\/p>\n
Best Sound<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nDune: Part Three
\nProject Hail Mary
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nThe Mosquito Bowl<\/p>\n
Best Score<\/p>\n
The Odyssey
\nLa Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nWild Horse Nine
\nDisclosure Day
\nProject Hail Mary<\/p>\n
Best Song<\/p>\n
La Nieve\u00a0from\u00a0La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
\nHow to Write a Song (Without You)\u00a0from\u00a0Power Ballad
\nThis City May have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn\u2019t Spit Me Out) from The Debut
\nBy Any Means from By Any Means
\nI Knew It, I Knew You\u00a0from\u00a0Toy Story 5<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
As always,<\/p>\n
If you want to follow me on Twitter (x), the link is\u00a0here<\/a>
If you want to follow me on Letterboxd, the link is\u00a0here<\/a><\/p>\n