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<\/a><\/p>\nOne can decompose the futures price increase into an pure expected price change, and risk premium. Robin Brooks \u201cWhat\u2019s Priced into Brent at $117? Brooks bases his argument on the experience of previous supply reduction and the little change in far dated futures, and the logic makes sense. However, there have been some (big) surprises in this entire experience (including the sheer incompetence in war planning and strategic (presidential) decisionmaking), so it might be understandable that markets might place greater weight on larger disruptions than than occurred earlier.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \t\t\tThis entry was posted on October 24, 2026<\/a> by Menzie Chinn<\/a>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Over $116\/bbl. One can decompose the futures price increase into an pure expected price change, and risk premium.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":656054,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-656053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=656053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/656053\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/656054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=656053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=656053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/il\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=656053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
A big risk premium has gotten priced in anticipation of a return to a \u201chot\u201d war\u201d<\/a> argues that it\u2019s largely due to risk premium increase \u2014 perhaps excessive \u2014 associated with a much signalled<\/a> resumption of a \u201chot\u201d war post-midterms.<\/p>\n