Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN<\/a>) reports third-quarter results Oct. 29 after the bell. It has missed revenue expectations three quarters in a row, so the big question is whether crypto’s late-summer rally came soon enough to end that run. <\/p>\n Last quarter was rough. Revenue came in at $1.22B, missing the $1.29B consensus and falling 18.5% year over year. GAAP EPS of -$1.36 also missed the -$0.2278 estimate. Spot trading volume dropped 25% from the prior quarter as crypto volatility fell to multi-year lows. <\/p>\n There were bright spots. Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume reached an all-time high of 10.3%, and adjusted EBITDA of $207.8M was positive for the 14th consecutive quarter. Since then, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has gained 26.84% over 90 days to about $80,199. Momentum has cooled, though, with Bitcoin down 3.92% over the past month. <\/p>\n Consensus Estimates Point to a Loss Transaction Revenue and Cost Discipline Will Decide This Quarter <\/p>\n Transaction revenue comes first. Management reported about $130M quarter-to-date through July 26 but warned against projecting from it. Consumer transaction revenue fell 20% year over year to $452M in Q2. I’ll be watching whether the Bitcoin rally ended that fall. <\/p>\n —— <\/p>\n SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion. Open an account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock<\/a> for Active Invest accounts. See for yourself by clicking here now.<\/a> (Sponsor) <\/p>\n —— <\/p>\n Subscription and services revenue is the buffer. Guidance calls for $500M-$580M, compared with $555M last quarter. Average USDC held in Coinbase products hit a record $20B, and the CFO confirmed the Circle agreement “will renew on the same terms.” <\/p>\n On costs, you should look at adjusted expenses against the $980M-$1,080M guide. Coinbase cut staff by 14% and lowered its full-year expense outlook to $4,200M-$4,450M. Management has committed to positive adjusted EBITDA in all market conditions. <\/p>\n I also want updates on the “Everything Exchange” push. Prediction markets revenue more than doubled last quarter and passed $100M annualized. The CEO’s argument was simple: “The diversity of trading fee revenue will continue to increase, and Bitcoin tends to cycle. It will come back in a big way at times.” Any early read on October volumes will matter as much as the third-quarter numbers. <\/p>\n A Lower Bar Gives Coinbase a Chance to Reset <\/p>\n Analysts have cut the quarterly EPS consensus sharply. It stood at $0.4273 90 days ago and now stands at -$0.2169 today. That leaves Coinbase a much lower bar to clear. After the Q2 miss, shares fell 10.59% on earnings day and then gained 20.89% over the next 30 days. If Coinbase meets expectations while stablecoin and subscription revenue holds firm, its diversification story will look much more credible heading into 2027. <\/p>\n Looking to grow your money but unsure where to begin? SoFi Active Invest is offering a limited-time promotion; open a new Active Invest account, fund it with $50 or more, and you could receive up to $1,000 in complimentary stock<\/a>. <\/p>\n From $0 commission trading3 to fractional shares4 and automated investing, this app is designed to simplify investing for everyone, whether you’re just starting or already experienced. Its easy to sign up and secure your bonus.<\/a> (Sponsor) <\/p>\n<\/a> Pro Aerial Master \/ Shutterstock.com Bitcoin Rallied After Coinbase’s Weakest Quarter <\/p>\n
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