![\"WTI\"](\"https:\/\/d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net\/tinymce\/2026-10\/1793340205-o_1k65mfjsj1qjv8c31u0oeufal38.jpg\"\/ "\\"WTI\\"")
<\/p>\nCrude oil gave back ground on Thursday as traders weighed emergency supply against tentative efforts to reopen talks with Iran. Neither side has taken control. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is delivering barrels, but the reserve is near its lowest level since 1982. Peace efforts have resurfaced, but no agreement has been reached, and the threat to regional shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure remains.<\/p>\n
On Friday, at 00:05 GMT, December WTI crude oil futures are trading at $102.77, down $0.67 or -0.65% for the week. The contract reached $103.92 last week. Brent settled Thursday at $114.88 a barrel, down $0.44 on the day.<\/p>\n
The market has spent most of the week pricing the same two-sided trade. Bullish traders see lower Hormuz flows, attacks around Saudi Arabia, low distillate inventories, and a reserve system being used heavily to keep supply available. Bearish traders see SPR barrels entering the market and renewed diplomatic contact between Washington, Tehran and Qatar. For now, neither side has produced the one development needed to force a decisive move in prices.<\/p>\n
SPR Barrels Are Entering the Market<\/p>\n
The United States completed the last major portion of its contribution to the broader International Energy Agency release agreement this week. The Energy Department said companies agreed to borrow about 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It awarded nearly 16.8 million barrels on October 28 after awarding 23.8 million barrels\u2026\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n
Crude oil gave back ground on Thursday as traders weighed emergency supply against tentative efforts to reopen talks with Iran. Neither side has taken control. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is delivering barrels, but the reserve is near its lowest level since 1982. Peace efforts have resurfaced, but no agreement has been reached, and the threat to regional shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure remains.<\/p>\n
On Friday, at 00:05 GMT, December WTI crude oil futures are trading at $102.77, down $0.67 or -0.65% for the week. The contract reached $103.92 last week. Brent settled Thursday at $114.88 a barrel, down $0.44 on the day.<\/p>\n
The market has spent most of the week pricing the same two-sided trade. Bullish traders see lower Hormuz flows, attacks around Saudi Arabia, low distillate inventories, and a reserve system being used heavily to keep supply available. Bearish traders see SPR barrels entering the market and renewed diplomatic contact between Washington, Tehran and Qatar. For now, neither side has produced the one development needed to force a decisive move in prices.<\/p>\n
SPR Barrels Are Entering the Market<\/p>\n
The United States completed the last major portion of its contribution to the broader International Energy Agency release agreement this week. The Energy Department said companies agreed to borrow about 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It awarded nearly 16.8 million barrels on October 28 after awarding 23.8 million barrels on October 13.<\/p>\n
Those awards complete the final U.S. share of a global effort involving about 30 countries and 400 million barrels of crude and products. Washington agreed in March to loan 172 million barrels as part of that program.<\/p>\n
The barrels should help refiners and traders facing tight prompt supplies, but this is not a fresh source of long-term production. The government is loaning the crude and receiving interest in barrels. The Energy Department said the exchanges should result in 44 million barrels being returned to the reserve, with returns beginning early next year.<\/p>\n
The issue for the market is how much cushion remains if the conflict worsens. SPR inventories fell to 282.6 million barrels last week, their lowest level since October 1982. The reserve is still a useful tool, but each new release reminds traders that the government has less flexibility than it had before the war began.<\/p>\n
Inventory Report Offers Mixed Signals<\/p>\n
The weekly EIA report gave buyers support on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels in the week ended October 23, while traders had expected a small 15,000-barrel increase. Cushing inventories declined by 624,000 barrels and Gulf Coast stocks fell to their lowest level since December 2024.<\/p>\n
Distillate inventories also fell 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million barrels. That matters because diesel and heating fuel remain the tighter parts of the barrel. Gasoline inventories rose 3.9 million barrels, however, versus expectations for a draw. Total products supplied fell by 1.022 million barrels per day to 20.21 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n
The report was bullish enough to keep WTI supported, but it did not settle the supply debate. U.S. crude exports rose 1.4 million barrels per day to 4.85 million barrels per day in the EIA data. Kpler questioned that number, saying observed loadings were about 1 million barrels per day lower. If the export figure is overstated, some of the apparent crude tightness may be less severe than the report initially suggested.<\/p>\n
Diplomacy Caps the Upside for Now<\/p>\n
The peace story returned Thursday after reports that Vice President JD Vance had contacted Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei about restarting negotiations. Qatari mediators also reportedly presented a new proposal intended to end the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.<\/p>\n
The response from Tehran was not encouraging. A senior Iranian official rejected the proposal as unacceptable, while Iran\u2019s foreign minister said the country remained open to diplomacy. That leaves the market with talks, but no framework that traders can treat as a reliable path to reduced military risk.<\/p>\n
The Saudi refinery attack earlier in the week restored the risk premium after two days of selling tied to talk of peace. Saudi Arabia did not confirm the strike, but traders know the facility involved produces 550,000 barrels per day. Any threat to Saudi production, tanker traffic or Hormuz flows is likely to keep a premium in prices.<\/p>\n
Weekly December WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Trend Indicator Analysis<\/p>\n
December WTI crude oil futures are trading slightly lower this week and inside the previous week\u2019s range. This usually indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.<\/p>\n
The main trend is up, according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $103.92 will reaffirm the trend. Taking out $86.00 will change the main trend to down.<\/p>\n
If the rally continues through $103.92, then traders may try to test the resistance cluster at $106.75 to $107.77. Above that, the target jumps to $111.03.<\/p>\n
Weekly Technical Forecast<\/p>\n
The direction of the Weekly December WTI Crude Oil futures contract for the week ending November 6 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $103.44.<\/p>\n
Bullish Scenario<\/p>\n
A sustained move above $103.44 will signal the presence of buyers. This will put the market in a position to possibly break out to the upside, with $106.75 to $107.77 as a strong possible target.<\/p>\n
Bearish Scenario<\/p>\n
A sustained move under $103.44 indicates that buying is slowing and selling pressure is increasing. If it creates enough downside momentum, then we could see a quick break to $94.96 – $92.84. If buyers don\u2019t return on a test of this retracement zone support, then the selling could extend to $86.00. If the latter fails, the main trend will change to down.<\/p>\n
Weekly Forecast<\/p>\n
Fundamentally, crude is likely to remain supported next week unless diplomacy produces a verifiable agreement that reduces the threat to shipping and energy infrastructure. SPR loans may limit the upside, but they are unlikely to erase the risk premium on their own. Another attack on Saudi infrastructure, tanker traffic or energy facilities could bring buyers back quickly. A credible peace agreement, backed by a reduction in attacks and a recovery in Hormuz flows, would give bearish traders the evidence needed to press the market lower.<\/p>\n
Technically, the highest close of this rally is $103.44. The bulls need to sustain a move over this level or face the possibility of an $8.00 to $10.00 loss.<\/p>\n
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