The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its updated mortality projections model, with higher life expectancies for both men and women in most age cohorts.<\/p>\n
The model is used by many defined benefit (DB) pension schemes and insurers when setting assumptions around mortality rates.<\/p>\n
It showed that life expectancy for 65 year olds was around 0.6 per cent higher than last year\u2019s model, while those aged 25 saw a 0.2 per cent increase and 85 year olds\u2019 life expectancy projections rose by 0.25 per cent.<\/p>\n
According to WTW, the updated model will result in scheme liabilities increasing by around 0.5 per cent for those adopting it in place of the previous model.<\/p>\n
\u201cMortality projection model updates have now increased life expectancy for two consecutive years,\u201d noted WTW director and senior mortality consultant, Stephen Caine. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis follows a prolonged slowdown in population mortality improvements from 2011 and the deteriorations associated with the Covid 19 pandemic. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe overall impact on a scheme will depend on the age profile of its membership, but scheme liabilities will generally increase by around 0.5 per cent for schemes adopting the model in place of CMI_2024.\u201d <\/p>\n
Caine added that CMI_2025 incorporated 2025 data for England and Wales, when mortality rates were the lowest on record overall. <\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, the detail reveals a varied picture: mortality for male adults aged between 20-59 barely improved in 2025 and is still higher than before the pandemic. <\/p>\n
\u201cFurther, life expectancy under the CMI_2025 model is also still some way behind CMI model predictions made in the early 2010s before the slowdown in UK longevity improvements took hold. <\/p>\n
\u201cUpdating mortality assumptions will typically bring about a small increase in liability values for schemes with an actuarial valuation this year compared with the CMI_2022 which is likely to have been used for the previous cycle of triennial valuations.\u201d <\/p>\n
Also commenting on the new CMI model, LCP partner, Ben Rees, said: \u201cCMI_2025 builds on the excellent work carried out by the CMI when redesigning CMI_2024. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis year\u2019s \u2018business-as-usual\u2019 update brings 2025 experience data, the lightest on record, into the model. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe update leads to life expectancies at age 65 which are around 0.6 per cent higher than last year\u2019s model. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe look forward to the CMI\u2019s review of projection methods ahead of the release of CMI_2026 next year.\u201d<\/p>\n
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