Global coking coal market trends shaped by production slowdown and trade disruptions<\/p>\n
Fastmarkets\u2019 Coaltrans Asia 2025 conference<\/a> brought together miners, steelmakers, traders and policymakers. It took place in Bali, Indonesia on September 20-23. The event aimed to assess supply constraints, investment trends, and shifting demand dynamics in the coking coal and steel markets<\/a>. <\/p>\n Here are three key takeaways from the discussions. The focus was on crude steel growth in Southeast Asia, India\u2019s long-term capacity expansion, and the evolving royalty regime in Queensland, northeastern Australia. <\/p>\n Geopolitical tensions, US import tariffs, economic slowdown, and declining steel production weigh on coking coal trade flows & demand<\/p>\n In the first seven months of 2025, global crude steel production reached 1.09 billion tonnes. This represents a 1.9% year-on-year (YoY) decline, resulting in reduced demand for coking coal.<\/p>\n From January to July this year, crude steel production notably declined across most major producing countries. However, India and the United States recorded growth. All other main producers saw a drop in output compared with the same period last year.<\/p>\n Crude steel production (Jan-Jul 2025) \u2013 Top 10 producers:<\/p>\n \u2022 China: 594.5 million tonnes, down by 3.1% YoY Meanwhile, tariffs on Northeast Asian automakers \u2013 particularly continuing US tariffs \u2013 have depressed steel demand and, consequently, coking coal imports. In Europe, weaker steel production and aggressive energy transition policies have further reduced demand for coking coal.<\/p>\n Continued strong demand with constrained supply may lead to a significant shortage of steelmaking coal<\/p>\n The global steelmaking coal market is tightening. This is because strong demand continues to outpace the growth of new supply, according to an Australian mining source.<\/p>\n India and Southeast Asia are moving ahead with significant investments in blast furnace technology. This ensures their dependence on coking coal for decades.<\/p>\n For example, India\u2019s per capita finished steel consumption and crude steel production are each around 104 kg. This figure is less than half the global average.<\/p>\n The country\u2019s crude steel production capacity is projected to grow. It is expected to increase from 190 million tonnes today to 300 million tonnes by 2031, and to 500 million tonnes by 2050.<\/p>\n In Southeast Asia, current crude steel production stands at 71.9 million tonnes. Expectations are that it will grow by 40-50 million tonnes over the next five years.<\/p>\n At the same time, low-carbon steelmaking<\/a> technologies remain years \u2013 if not decades \u2013 away from commercial viability.<\/p>\n In Europe, the transition to green steel is progressing more slowly than anticipated. This suggests that European demand for coking coal will likely remain stable in the near term. It further reinforces the global demand base.<\/p>\n On the supply side, new steelmaking coal projects face increasing challenges. Rising costs, stricter regulations and long approval timelines \u2013 averaging nearly four years in Australia \u2013 are limiting the pace of development.<\/p>\n
\u2022 India: 94.9 million tonnes, up by 9.8% YoY
\u2022 Japan: 47.5 million tonnes, down by 4.7% YoY
\u2022 United States: 47.4 million tonnes, up by 1.5% YoY
\u2022 Russia: 40.8 million tonnes, down by 4.4% YoY
\u2022 Others: 11.48 million tonnes, down by 3.6% YoY<\/p>\n