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\n 13\/10\/2025 – 15:00 GMT+2\n <\/p>\n
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Failure to prevent global warming from hitting 1.5\u2103 is pushing humanity towards the \u201cdanger zone\u201d, as planet Earth reaches its first-ever climate tipping point.<\/p>\n
A new report involving 160 global researchers reveals that rising temperatures are causing widespread damage to warm-water coral reefs, threatening the livelihoods of hundreds of millions who depend on them.<\/p>\n
Spearheaded by Professor Tim Lenton, and published by Global Tipping Points, the study calls for \u201cimmediate\u201d action from leaders at COP30 and policymakers worldwide, arguing that climate goals set by the Paris Agreement are not enough.<\/p>\n
Coral reefs: How much damage has been done?<\/p>\n
Global heating<\/a>now stands at 1.4\u2103, but scientists estimate the thermal tipping point for warm-water coral reefs is between 1\u2103 and 1.5\u2103 – making 1.2\u2103 the central estimate.<\/p>\n The report warns that even the most \u201coptimistic emission scenarios\u201d of stabilising warming at 1.5\u2103, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, will therefore not be enough to prevent coral reefs<\/a>from \u201cirreversibly passing their thermal tipping point\u201d.<\/p>\n Already, global warming – attributed to greenhouse gas emissions<\/a>– has resulted in \u201cunprecedented dieback\u201d of coral reefs, and the worst bleaching event<\/a>on record from 2023 to 2025.<\/p>\n \u201cReturning global mean warming below 1.2\u2103 with a minimal overshoot period and eventually returning to 1\u2103 above preindustrial is essential for retaining warm-water coral reefs at meaningful scale, beyond a relatively few isolated refuge areas,\u201d the report states.<\/p>\n Researchers also recommend improving reef management and implementing urgent policy responses and risk assessments to help give reefs the best chance of survival.<\/p>\n Earth\u2019s climate tipping points: What else is at risk?<\/p>\n Every fraction of additional warming increases the risk of triggering further tipping points.<\/p>\n The report warns that parts of the polar ice sheet may have also already crossed tipping points, which could lead to several metres of \u201cirreversible\u201d sea-level rise<\/a> in the future, affecting hundreds of millions.<\/p>\n If global warming exceeds 1.5\u2103 within a few years, as projected, the Amazon rainforest<\/a> also risks widespread dieback, threatening “incalculable damage to biodiversity\u201d and harming more than a hundred million people who depend on the system.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is also at risk of collapse below 2\u2103 [of warming],\u201d the report adds<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThis would radically undermine global food and water security and plunge northwest Europe into severe winters.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018Preventing\u2019 climate tipping points<\/p>\n To prevent climate tipping points, experts say human-produced greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels) and then reach net zero by 2050.<\/p>\n They argue that current targets are not enough and will still commit the world to ongoing global warming that is likely to exceed 2\u2103 before the year 2100 – making decarbonisation and mitigating methane emissions key drivers.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we wait to cross tipping points before we act, it will be too late,\u201d the report warns. \u201cThe only credible risk management strategy is to act in advance.\u201d<\/p>\n