Tokyo Electron Ltd. issued a cautious annual outlook, signaling that Beijing’s drive to build its own chip supply chain is weighing on sentiment, even as a global surge in AI spending lifts demand for semiconductors.

The Japanese chipmaking-equipment rival to Applied Materials Inc. said it now expects operating profit to fall 16% in the year to March, a narrower decline than previously forecast but still short of analyst estimates. Executives said the outlook could improve over the coming months, citing strong demand for advanced logic and memory chips due to a global rush to build data centers.