Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. BUT, please note that yesterday’s observation that WBS now has the lowest two year fixed rate should also been seen in light of UnityMoney’s one year FHB special of 3.99%, which is on-going. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

NO TURN UP YET
As we close in on the Q2-2025 GDP result to be released on September 18 (where a small +0.4% q-on-q expansion was currently anticipated, but a -0.9% y-on-y decline), more Q2 data is being released. Unfortunately this data isn’t positive and will weigh on the GDP result. Today, Q2 “business financial data” was released and that showed construction sales fell -3.1% in the June quarter, following a +0.7% rise in March. And manufacturing sales fell -3.0% in June. If it wasn’t for the food and ag sectors, things would be even grimmer. The forecasts for Q2-2025 GDP will be locked in more after today’s data is absorbed. See this.

SOFT OUTLOOK
The derivatives markets are signaling that tomorrow’s Pulse auction for WMP and SMP will be weak. The pricing today suggests fall back to December 2024 levels for WMP and back to August 2024 levels for SMP. If this trend continues over the next few events if raises the likelihood analysts -and even Fonterra – will scale back their 2025/26 farmgate milk price forecasts.

GOOD OUTLOOK
But things look better in the beef trade. Beef prices still rising even as tariffs buffet and shift flows to the US who are now paying record prices, as global production reduces, including in New Zealand

NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% in a negative Tuesday session. And it is down -0.6% over the past five working days. It up +1.2% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.7% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.8% today so far, impressive given the overall fall. Turners, Tower, Napier Port, F&P Healthcare climb while Kathmandu, SkyCity, Fletcher Building, and Meridian slide’

ANOTHER BIG BANK BOND OFFER COMING
It looks like Westpac NZ is getting ready for another big bank bond issue. No mount has yet been released although it raised 750 mln last time after taking significant oversubscriptions. They will likely have to pay a small premium for a big bond in a market with relatively low liquidity. The term will be 5 years.

ANZ TO SHED 3500 STAFF IN AUSTRALIA
ANZ Group’s new broom CEO Nuno Matos has kicked off a change programme at the four-pillar bank with plans to shed 3,500 Australian staff.

AFTER AUGUST’S SURGE, AU CONSUMER SENTIMENT SLIPS BACK
The Westpac-MI sentiment survey slipped on darker views about the economic outlook and less confidence about getting any more rate cuts from the RBA – because inflation is still ‘too high’. Analysts had expected this survey to possibly break into net optimism in September, but it was not to be.

IMPROVEMENT TAKES A BREATHER
Meanwhile the August NAB business confidence report shows it fell a minor 3 points in August, following four consecutive months of improving sentiment and leaves confidence also close to long run average levels

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps at 3.00% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from yesterday at 4.27%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps from yesterday at 4.36%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -5 bps at 4.35% at the end of Monday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from yesterday, now at 4.05%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is sharply softer in Tuesday trade, down -0.6% now. The ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%. Hong Kong up +1.3% with Shanghai unchanged. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Monday session with the S&P500 up +0.2%.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price in the US is unchanged at just on US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price just under US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMISH
There are more trades again today and the price has held at $57.50. The next official carbon auction is tomorrow and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$57 from this time yesterday at US$3647/oz and back up to a new its record high.

NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.6 and up +20 bps from this time yesterday. We should probably note that the US Dollar is lingering near its lowest level against all-comers since early 2022.

BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,339 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been again low just over +/- 0.8%.

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