The afternoon prior to the Melbourne Cup meeting and the track is rated a Soft 7. The chance of 1-10mm tomorrow and cooler weather means we could be anywhere from a Soft 6 to Heavy 8 and it just depends on when and how much rain arrives. The track played superbly for Derby Day, but weather watch is very much on the cards and will be looking for horses that handle wet ground.
James McDonald has an excellent 17% overall strike-rate at this course which improves to 32% when riding a favourite. Other riders to keep on the right side of are Mark Zahra (13% and 35%) and Billy Egan (14% and 35%). From a training perspective, G M Begg strikes at 45% with their favourites, while Patrick and Michele Payne strike at 63% with favoured runners.
Race 3 – 8. Snitz Sonic ($12/$3.50)
An each-way play here on a nice progressive galloper who overcame a steady pace at Echuca when shrugging the maiden status. The run prior was sound and stepping up to 1800m looks suitable. Breeding would suggest this lightly raced galloper will also handle the wet track.
Race 7 – 14. Half Yours ($7.50) & 6. Presage Nocturne ($8.50)
Backing both of these in the Melbourne Cup. The Caulfield Cup form looks the right formline to me and hard to knock the winner, even with penalty. He will relish the conditions and drew well. Much the same applies to Presage Nocturne, who will strip fitter for the run and is better suited up in distance.