Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed its term deposit rates today, but only down to the levels of its main rivals, and removing the small advantage. General Finance also trimmed its rates joining the sub-4% NBDTs. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RISING QUICKLY
Complaints against real estate agents to the Real Estate Authority increased by +43% in the June year to a record high of 481. As at October there were 15,122 active individual real estate agents, which means about one complaint for every 40 active agents on average.

A NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT
The factory PMI for October has improved. Not by a huge amount, but significantly all the same. The best part is that this improvement is being led by new orders. This metric is now boasting four consecutive months above the breakeven 50 mark for the first time in three years.

TAKE OUR QUIZ
If you haven’t already done so, don’t forget to take this week’s quiz. This week’s version ends on Sunday. (A new one will be posted on Monday morning.) You can bookmark this page.

NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is now down -0.7% so far on Friday. That puts it also down -0.7% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +6.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has dropped another -0.6% so far today. Kathmandu, Oceania, Air NZ, and Genesis lead the gainers, Vista, Gentrack, Ryman, and Turners top the decliners.

OFF TO BRAZIL
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will attend the 30th annual United Nations Climate Change Summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, next week. “New Zealand needs all countries to take meaningful climate action, in line with rules we all agree to. This is critical for our economy and the Pacific region,” the North Shore MP said. Labour’s Deborah Russell will also attend.

STILL EASING
China’s new home prices in October across their 70 major cities were unchanged from September by down dropped -2.2% from the same month a year ago. This was the same year-on-year decline they had in September. Most analysts expected a lesser decline of -2.0%. Seven of the 70 cities posited modest yaer-on-year price gains. None posted any gains for resales.

MIXED REAL ECONOMY SIGNALS
Meanwhile, China’s retail sales held up better than expected, up +2.9% from a year ago with better holiday spending. Their official industrial production was up +4.9% from a year ago in October, a rather large easing in their 6.0% September growth rate.

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION RISES YEAR-ON-YEAR
China’s electricity production fell in October, but that was less than expected and less that the usual seasonal pattern so it was up a rather large +7.9% from a year ago.

BRAINS GIVE UP FASTER THAN BODIES
In Australia, dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, accounted for over 17,500 deaths in 2024 and is now the nation’s leading cause of death, overtaking ischaemic heart diseases, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.47% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.45% and holding yesterday’s jump. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.80%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 4.19%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday’s rate is up +8 bps at 4.18% recording yesterday’s Aussie pressure. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.11%.

EQUITIES DROP
The local equity market is now down -0.6% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has fallen -1.5% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.9% at its open. Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street fell -1.7% on the S&P500 in trade that increasingly soured during its Thursday session.

OIL RECOVERS
The oil price in the US has recovered +US$2/bbl at just under US$60.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$64.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
There have been have been very few trades today so the price has held down at $43/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4190/oz.

NZD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps at 61.3.

BITCOIN EASES YET AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$99,372 and down -2.6% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate again at just on +/- 2.8%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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