Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
FMT cut its minimum mortgage lending rates today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Xceda Finance has cut rates today, many of their now below 4%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MARKET CAN’T TOLERATE HIGH DAIRY PRICES
The latest full dairy auction results aren’t good. Not so much because the overall result was down -3.0% in USD terms, more because that makes it seven declines in a row from early August, taking the cumulative drop to -13%. And the recent retreats seem to be getting more intense. We now have prices lower than year-ago levels. And the decline in USD is being matched by the decline in NZD now, down -2.9% in this latest event. Clearly analysts will be dusting off their current season payout forecasts because they are risk of being downgraded. Behind the softness is a faster-than-expected rise in dairy production levels due to good weather conditions globally. That is as true for New Zealand as anywhere, where milk production is rising. The pointy end of this pressure is the butter price, and that dropped -7.6% at this latest auction. WMP was down a lesser -1.9%, SMP down only -0.6%.

MORE SELECTION, LOWER RENTS
More rental properties available and fewer prospective tenants are forcing rents down in most parts of the country. Advertised rents on Trade Me Property have dropped to a two-and-half-year low.

PPI TURNS ‘POSITIVE’ FOR THE FIRST TIME IN EIGHT YEARS
For the first time in two years, producer output prices have risen faster than producer input prices. And if we look past the effect of the pandemic and the subsequent sharp adjustments of this unusual period, the gain has been the best  since 2017.

THERE IS NO NET INFLATION ON THE FARM ANYMORE
Overall farms, and excluding livestock costs, farm expenses were up just +0.1% in the year to September.  Admittedly, that covers a range of costs that did move, but largely cancelling each other out. Farm electricity rose +9.a% for the year, fertiliser was up +13.5% on the same basis. But fuel and pest control costs dropped, and interest costs dropped a massive -19.8%. Overall costs for dairy farms actually fell -1.0% from a year ago, for sheep & beef units they were up +0.6%, for cropping up +1.2%, and for horticulture they were up +1.8% from a year ago.

BEING NICE
The FMA has chosen an ‘education’ strategy rather than an ‘enforcement’ strategy to deal with insider trading in the financial investment industry. It has released a best practice note to guide industry professional on how to avoid insider trading risk, and ‘materiality’ is an aspect of what could attract regulator action. It is a tricky area for everyone (including the FMA), so you hope this guidance doesn’t just provide a cheat-sheet on how to avoid prosecution through regulatory gaming.

TAKE OUR NEW QUIZ
If you haven’t already done so, don’t forget to take this week’s quiz. Join the more than 600 who did it last week. This week’s version ends on Sunday. You can bookmark this page.

NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far on Tuesday following global trends. That puts it also down -1.3% over the past five working days. And it is up +2.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Kathmandu, Napier Port, Port of Tauranga, and Spark top the gains with Stride, Serko, Tourism Holdings, and Vista leading the decliners.

EMBEDDED HIGH
In Australia, payroll costs rose pretty much as expected in the September quarter. They were up +3.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter. Public sector wages increased +3.8%, slightly above the +3.7% rise in Q2, while private sector wages grew by +3.2%, easing from +3.4% previously. (Overall, total wages and salaries for all employees rose +5.3% for the year to September, boosted by an expanding workforce.)

RISING ORDERS
In Japan, September machinery orders rose a better-than-expected +11.6% from the same month a year earlier, up an impressive +4.2% from August. (This result is not twisted by large, volatile items like for ships or  major infrastructure machinery such as electric power plants. That would have pushed the rise even higher.) Export orders were particularly notable.

SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are probably softer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.49% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.43%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Tuesday’s rate is down -2 bps at 4.28%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.12%.

EQUITIES STOP FALLING ON SOME BOURSES
The local equity market is now down -0.2% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has recovered +0.6% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.1% and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down another -0.8% and now down -3.7% over the past week.

OIL FIRMS
The oil price in the US has held has risen +US$1 to just on US$60.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just over US$64.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN ON TINY VOLUME
There have again been very few trades today and the price has firmed ever-so-slightly to $43.50/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$40/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4060/oz.

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -15 bps at just under at 61.1.

BITCOIN STAYS LOW
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,691 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

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