Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A MOOD CHANGE
The Q4-2025 updated of the ASB investor confidence survey reveals better optimism. But the details are disparate. Auckland attitudes are now positive than national ones. Perceptions of a home as the best returning investment have dropped to their lowest level since first measured in 2015, with under 30s driving the shift to other investments, particularly the share market with confidence jumping sharply. Global and domestic issues continue to strongly influence the mood.

REVERSING
Following the series of weak diary auction results, BNZ’s economists have reduced their milk price forecast for the current season. They now forecast a farmgate milk price of $9.50 per kilogram of milk solids for the current season, down from $10.25. Fonterra is currently forecasting $10 but that too may get reviewed soon.

BIG FEE JUMP
The Department of Internal Affairs has announced a fee increase for applying for citizenship. The price of applying for an adult will increase from $470.20 to $560, and the price of a child (under 16) from $235.10 to $280. The fee for registering citizenship by descent will increase from $204.40 to $243.

NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far on Thursday following global trends. That puts it also down -1.5% over the past five working days. And it is up +2.5% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Infratil, Gentrack, Chorus, and SkyCity casino gain while Kathmandu, Oceania, Tourism Holdings, and a2 Milk ease.

WE ARE TALKING ‘ENORMOUS’
In Wednesday Wall Street trade, Nvidia shares traded essentially flat (+0.5%) to the close, after which their Q3 results were released. These results were released into a market that was concluding that AI valuations may have been over-cooked. But the released results were stellar (again) and in after-market trading Nvidia has risen +4.9% so far. But at some point investors will come to the conclusion that endless results like this can’t continue. Nvidia currently trades 30x future earnings. By most measures, that is gambling you won’t get caught when the music stops, and there will always be “a greater fool”. Nvidia currently has a market capitalisation of US$4,530,000,000,000, which is sixteen times New Zealand’s annual GDP, two-and-a-half time greater than Australia’s.

DRILLING DOWN
Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.

ON HOLD FOR NOW
As widely anticipated, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.

‘MORE TAXES, LESS SPENDING’
In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.

SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.48% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.48%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.81%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.29%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday’s rate is down -7 bps at 4.21%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps at 4.14%.

EQUITIES TURN POSITIVE
The local equity market is now up +0.6% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has gained +3.5% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.4% and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade before the Nvidia result with the S&P500 up +0.4%.

OIL EASES
The oil price in the US has fallen -US$1 to just on US$59.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just over US$63.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS SLIGHTLY
There have again been very few trades today and the price has firmed ever-so-slightly, now to $44/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$18/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4078/oz.

NZD LOWER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56 USc. Against the Aussie we are down another -30 bps at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -30 bps at just under at 60.8.

BITCOIN WITH NO NET CHANGE
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,539 and a net -0.2% dip from this time yesterday. In between it got down as low as US$88,617. Volatility has stayed moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

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