The 2026 European Film Awards unveiled their nominations this week, with Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value leading the pack with five nods. Óliver Laxe’s Sirāt followed with four, while Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident and Mascha Schilinski’s Sound of Falling were close behind with three apiece.
Those features are all competing in three major categories: Best European Film, Best European Director, and Best European Screenwriter. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) and Sergei López (Sirāt) will face off in Best European Actor, while Skarsgård’s costar Renate Reinsve is up for Best European Actress.
‘Sentimental Value’NEON
The European Film Awards are voted on by around 5,000 members of the European Film Academy, and have become an increasingly reliable barometer of which international films will show up at the Oscars, especially as AMPAS continues to expand its international membership. In the past, the winners have heavily influenced the Best International Feature Film category, which include Oscar victors like Amour, The Great Beauty, and Ida, and nominees like Toni Erdmann, Quo Vadis, Aida?, and The Square. But since 2018, their impact has been far greater, beginning with Cold War sweeping those top three categories, resulting in a shocking Best Director nomination at the Oscars for Paweł Pawlikowski. In 2020, Another Round repeated the sweep of the top categories at the European Film Awards and wound up with an Oscar nod for director Thomas Vinterberg to go along with Denmark’s victory in Best International Feature Film.
Over the last three ceremonies, there has been a clean sweep of wins beyond the big three races. Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Emilia Pérez each won every category it was nominated in. All three also made their way to the Academy Awards’s Best Picture field — now requiring 10 nominees — as well as director and their respective screenplay races. Best Director, in particular, was not a sure bet for the former two, so a win in that category at the European Film Awards could very likely tip off a subsequent Oscar nod.
‘It Was Just an Accident’Neon
This year, both Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident have been in the Oscar conversation since they debuted at Cannes. It Was Just an Accident won the Palme d’Or, while Sentimental Value recieved the runner-up Grand Prix.
Sentimental Value appears to have the early edge at the EFAs: it’s a more European-centric movie, features established European artists such as Trier, Skarsgård, and cowriter Eskil Vogt, and has the most overall nominations. However, It Was Just an Accident did prevail at Cannes and has a stronger narrative when it comes to Panahi and his struggles not only to make the Iranian thriller, but throughout his entire life and career, which could resonate with voters.
‘Sound of Falling’Neue Visionen Filmverleih
There is one important caveat this year in terms of timing of the EFAs. Instead of they usual December date, the EFA ceremony has moved to Jan. 17, one day after balloting for the Oscar nominations has concluded. That means the winners will not have a direct influence on Academy voters in Phase 1. However, it should still signal how the European contingent of Academy members are leaning.
Per the Gold Derby prediction data, both films appear safe for nominations in those top three Oscar categories: Sentimental Value has an 80 percent chance in Best Picture, a 76 percent chance in Best Director, and a 95 percent chance in Best Original Screenplay; It Was Just an Accident has an 82 percent chance in Best Picture, a 63 percent chance in Best Director, and an 88 percent chance in Best Original Screenplay.
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film
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The Lost Bus
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A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
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Pillion
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BENTONVILLE, ARKANSAS – JUNE 21: Eric Lin attends the “Rosemead” screening during the 11th Annual Bentonville Film Festival led by Geena Davis on June 21, 2025 in Bentonville, Arkansas. (Photo by Jason Davis/Getty Images for Bentonville Film Festival)
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The Choral
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40 Acres
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Bad Apples
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The Actor
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The Chronology of Water
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Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 23: Embeth Davidtz attends the BFI 90th Anniversary party hosted by BFI America at British Consulate General Residence on April 23, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by JC Olivera/Getty Images)
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PARK CITY, UTAH – JANUARY 23: Filmmaker Angus MacLachlan attends the 2023 Sundance Film Festival “A Little Prayer” Premiere at The Ray Theatre on January 23, 2023 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Leon Bennett/Getty Images)
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HOLLYWOOD, CA – FEBRUARY 28: Director Duke Johnson (L) and producer Rosa Tran attend the 88th Annual Academy Awards at Hollywood & Highland Center on February 28, 2016 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
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Trevor Jackson, Dewanda Wise and Spike Lee attends the Essence Black Women In Hollywood Awards Luncheon at the Beverly Wilshire on February 21, 2019 in Beverly Hills, California.
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TORONTO, ONTARIO – SEPTEMBER 07: Mike Flanagan of ‘The Life of Chuck’ poses in the Getty Images Portrait Studio Presented by IMDb and IMDbPro during the Toronto International Film Festival at InterContinental Toronto Centre on September 07, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Gareth Cattermole/Getty Images for IMDb)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MARCH 28: James Vanderbilt attends the Los Angeles Premiere of Netflix’s “Murder Mystery 2” at Regency Village Theatre on March 28, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
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Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best International Film
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If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
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Father, Mother, Sister, Brother
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A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
The biggest question mark is in the directing category, as Trier and Panahi have the lowest percentage predictions for a bid. However, if their films perform well at the European Film Awards, that could be a very good sign for that particular race.