Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has reduced its rate card for 1-5 year term deposits. Liberty Financial trimmed all it’s rates 6 months to 3 years and raised longer term rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

HIGHER CONSTRUCTION COSTS
Higher timber prices are starting to push up residential construction costs. This comes after a period of low to falling prices, QV CostBuilder data shows.

NEARLY A BEAR MARKET
The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected large recovery, everything else fell, especially butter which fell to a two year low in NZD and a three year low in USD. Overall, prices retreated +4.3% in USD and -5.4% in NZD. Falls this large haven’t happened since mid-July 2024. Analysts had already trimmed their current season payout forecasts, and today’s event may have them thinking about revisiting them again. Certainly, the trend isn’t positive. Since its May 20 peak, the GDT index has fallen -18.2%.

AS DAIRY WEAKENS, MEAT PROVIDES SOME BALACE
The ANZ commodity price index for November is now back to exactly where it was as year ago, although in NZD iit is +6.3% ahead due to the devaluation of the currency. Their index fell -1.6% in November from October with dairy prices down -5.4% on that basis, offset by a +3.5% rise in meat prices. But this is the first annual fall since December 2023.

MORE NEW CARS, FEWER USED IMPORTS
New passenger vehicles again led the car market with 10,247 registrations in November, up +14.5% on the year-ago period. Hybrid models remained dominant as buyers focus on fuel efficiency and running costs in a cautious spending environment. The Toyota RAV4 was once again the top-selling model with 1,257 registrations, followed by the Mitsubishi ASX (558) and the Ford Everest (527). Used imports fell again, down -5.2% from the year-ago month. They are now down -24.7% from a year ago. No wonder the IMVIA was begging for emissions-standards relief (which they won).

NZX50 FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was unchanged so far on Wednesday. That puts it down -0.4% over the past five working days. It is up +3.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% today. Skellerup, SkyCity casino, Gentrack, and Hallensteins gain but Kathmandu, Vista Group, Auckland Airport, and Mainfreight decline

‘IMPROVING OUTLOOK’
After a prolonged period of economic stagnation, BusinessNZ forecasts indicate that the economy is likely to grow at just under 3% per annum out to 2027. Their Economic Conditions Index (ECI), which tracks major economic indicators, stands at +13 for the December 2025 quarter – up nine points from the previous quarter and two points higher than a year ago. An ECI reading above zero indicates improving economic conditions, while a reading below zero signals a general decline.

REPRIEVE
The FMA is reporting that the European Commission has recognised the NZ Bank Bill Rate benchmark (BKBM), a ‘significant outcome’ because more than €50 bln of financial instruments currently in use in the EU reference the NZ BKBM as a base for them, particularly holders of interest rate swaps. Without that approval, fundraising in the EU would have had to cease because there are no feasible alternatives.

UNEXPECTED SLOWING OF GROWTH
The Australian economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded  +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.

SWAP RATES – RECENT RISES REVERSE
Wholesale swap rates are have probably retreated a bit today, especially at the longer end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.47% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.61%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.83%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps at 4.42%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Tuesday’s rate up +6 bps at 4.47%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp at 4.08%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is up +0.1% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.8% and Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore is +0.3% firmer at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with a lackluster +0.2% firming..

OIL RETREATS
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just under US$58.50/bbl and the international Brent price is down -50 USc, now at just under US$62.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STILL STALLED
We can’t find any trades again today so the price holds at the low $40/NZU, the lowest since July 2023. (It peaked at $90.5/NZU in September 2022.) The final New Zealand carbon unit (NZU) auction for 2025 failed completely, with no bids received. This means that all 6 million NZUs offered at the auction, with a minimum price of $68, were not sold and will be wiped from the system. It was the second consecutive year that all four quarterly auctions have failed to attract any bidders, likely due to recent climate policy announcements signaling a potential rollback of climate change commitments, making it cheaper for emitters to buy units on the secondary market.  See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UNCHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$1/oz from yesterday, now at US$4215/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are +10 bps firmer at 49.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at just on 62 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$92,374 and up a strong +6.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at just on +/- 3.3%.

PLEASE NOTE
There be no 4pm update tomorrow, Thursday, December 4, 2025. That is not because of a dearth of things to report, but because there will be no-one on hand to do that. The interest.co.nz team is taking the day off for our end-of-year function. 

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