Thailand’s powerful business committee has issued a stark warning that the nation’s economy is set for a severe slowdown in 2026, with growth projected to fall as low as 1.6%.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) on Wednesday attributed the bleak outlook to two primary factors: escalating competition from China’s industrial overcapacity and the crippling financial toll of the recent Southern floods.
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), stated that the global economy is slowing, with China being a key drag.
Weak domestic demand is forcing Beijing to rely heavily on exports, intensifying competitive pressures on Thai businesses, especially in manufacturing.
The JSCCIB confirmed that the catastrophic flooding in the Southern region caused widespread damage, with some areas facing a ‘Level 4’ public disaster comparable to the 2004 Tsunami.
The committee reported a loss of revenue between 20-30 billion baht (0.1% to 0.2% of GDP) in December 2025 alone, contributing to a weak 2.0% growth figure for the entire year.
The projected revenue loss for 2026 due to the ongoing impact is an estimated 90 billion baht.
“The Thai economy in 2026 is forecast to expand at a sluggish rate of 1.6% to 2.0%,” Kriengkrai said, noting further headwinds from uncertain US tax measures and increasing import competition.