There is no way any government of any colour – blue or red – would ever send $23b to Thailand to plant trees on our behalf. New Zealand hasn’t got that kind of money. We can’t even afford to build Dunedin the hospital it was promised.
That $23b is enough to pay for the entire police force, the entire prison system, the Defence Force, the Ministry of Justice and Customs. For 2.5 years. It’s about 14% of the money the Government spends in a year.
Debate over climate change commitments has resurfaced in Parliament as the Government confronts the soaring cost of meeting New Zealand’s Paris Agreement obligations. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Buying trees in another country while Pharmac can’t afford life-saving drugs is political suicide.
Maybe the reason people are so surprised is that successive governments have done such a good job of playing pretend. Even this Government. The Climate Minister is still busy setting up deals with other countries to allow it to start the expensive tree planting.
He has to. Admitting that he will never actually use those deals would lead to lawsuits. A group of climate lawyers are watching every word carefully, just itching to sue the Government. Again.
But Willis has blown open the charade for anyone who cares to join the dots. She’s not saying the words out loud – for legal reasons – but not buying trees means we will definitely not meet the 2030 target because planting trees overseas was the only way that was ever going to happen. Our system was never designed to cut domestic emissions enough to meet the target.
International tree-planting schemes – once seen as essential to New Zealand’s climate plan – now appear politically and financially unrealistic. Photo / 123rf
Behind the scenes at official level, there will almost certainly be chats between countries trying to figure out how almost every nation can get away with missing the target.
It’s worth pointing out that the estimated bill could already be more than $23b. That’s 2023’s number. We’ve gone backwards in meeting our climate targets since then.
Treasury’s conceded it might be time to recalculate it. If they do the numbers again, the new figure might be out just in time for the pre-election fiscal update.
The Greens are upbeat about getting Treasury to do the numbers again. They see this as a win. Presumably, because they think it will demonstrate just how much the coalition Government has watered down and unwound climate policies.
The Government’s climate spending dilemma comes amid ongoing pressure on Pharmac and the wider health system to fund life-saving treatments. Photo / Mark Mitchell
They may want to rethink that political calculation. When that new figure comes out, it will spark another round of will-you-or-won’t-you send the money overseas.
In that game, Labour and the Greens lose to National.
If they answer yes, they’ll have to explain to voters where that money comes from and why planting trees beats medicines for dying Kiwis.
If they answer is no, they’re the same kind of climate vandals they accuse the coalition Government of being.
Perhaps part of the reason no one’s come close to admitting the farce until now is that it was easier than facing reality – 2030 is now just around the corner and $23b is an awful lot of money.
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