Key events for the week ahead
AU: unemployment
Date: Thursday, 18 September at 11.30am AEST
For July, employment in Australia rose by 24,500 jobs, in line with the 25,000 gain the market expected. The unemployment rate eased to 4.2% from 4.3% prior, as the participation rate held steady at 67%.
Sean Crick, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) head of labour statistics, said: ‘With employment rising by 25,000 people and the number of unemployed decreasing by 10,000 people, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2 per cent in July.’
The firm employment report validated the RBA’s cautious approach to monetary policy easing this year. It reinforces expectations that it will remain a cautious cutter going forward, given the tight labour market and concerns about upwards pressure on wages.
The preliminary expectation for August is that the Australian economy will add 25,000 jobs and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%.
Numbers that meet these expectations are anticipated to prompt the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points (bp) in November, taking the cash rate back to 3.35%, before delivering a final 25 bp rate cut during the first half of 2026, taking the cash rate back to 3.10%.
AU unemployment rate chart