Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

A SOGGY END TO THE YEAR
REINZ data shows housing sales volumes slumped in November while prices drifted sideways. Excessive stock for sales is keeping a lid on this market.

2019 REDUX
The national median multiple has firmed slightly in November from October, but is now only back to where it was at the beginning of 2024, and before that, October 2019. The median multiple measures the relationship between ‘average household incomes’ and ‘average house prices’. As such, neither interest rates now income taxes have any direct impact on the measure. And the averages are very broad, including incomes from people who aren’t in the housing market, and prices for houses that just don’t need or can’t tolerate a mortgage. We prefer the ‘home loan affordability’ measure which we will release for FHB’s in a few days.

HIGH BUT EASING
Monthly partial CPI data out today show falling food prices pointing toward a lower annual inflation rate. Food prices dropped -0.4% in November, lowering the annual increase to +4.4%.

RENT RISES STALL, NOT SO MOST OTHER COSTS
Other inflation data out with the food data shows that rents had their lowest annual increase since at least 2011, up just +0.5% from a year ago for those changing accommodation, but up +1.4% for those staying put. However, this same data shows electricity prices up +12.3%, petrol up +2.8%, but domestic airfares down -14% from a year ago

MODEST TREND IMPROVEMENT
The December BNZ-Seek job ads report shows positive signs, trending upwards off a low base. “It is encouraging to see five consecutive months of improvement (seasonally adjusted). Job ads for the last three months (Sep – Nov) are now up 3.9% on the previous three months (Jun – Aug).” All this is consistent with StatsNZ’s weekly filled jobs data.

LAST CHANCE
Consumer spending through the Worldline’s payment network has tracked slightly below year-ago levels in the first half of December but is set to peak in the coming days – traditionally the busiest of the year – ahead of Christmas Day. The lackluster growth is a worry because many retailers have already rolled out their post-holiday discounts to attract business. That means volumes may be higher but revenues and margins are getting a real squeeze this year. It will be tough for retailers who have excess stock after the new year.

‘SMALL DETERIORATION’, WIDER DEFICIT
The ‘delayed’ economic recovery has led to a ‘small deterioration in the fiscal forecasts’, Treasury says in its Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update. It now expects a widening fiscal deficit and forecasts a surplus won’t return until 2029/2030 at the earliest.

DONE OUR UPDATED QUIZ YET?
Our quiz has been refreshed for the new week. You can do it here.

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up just +0.1% so far today. That puts it down -0.2% over the past five working days. It is up +2.7% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up another +0.4% so far today. Gainers include Turners, a2 Milk, Meridian and Mercury; decliners are led by Gentrack, Serko, Oceania and Sanford.

MOMENTUM TO SLOW, BUT STILL RISING
Despite the turbulent trade environment, MPI’s latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report expects meat exports to rise +7% to $13.2 bln in the year to June 2026. (This follows +9% growth in the same 2025 year.) That is part of the forecast $62 bln primary sector exports and that will be 83% of all our merchandise exports. Dairy exports are expected to grow only +1% next year following this year’s +17% rise, horticulture +5% following this year’s +24% jump.

EXPANSION WEAKER
The latest S&P Global PMI for Australia for December finds the factory sector expanding in a minor way and a little faster than in November helped by expanding new order levels. But the service sector is now expanding slower, in fact barely expanding.

A SUDDEN DOSE OF CAUTION
Staying in Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer confidence retreated in December and by more than expected and into net negative territory. In fact, no change was expected. The survey found a sharp change in what is expected for mortgage rates, going from a expecting a fall, to now expecting them to rise. Views on the economic outlook and household finances have deteriorated, but those surveyed are still confident about the Australian labour market. Views on =homebuying and house prices have been pared back.

SWAP RATES RETREAT UNDER PRESSURE
Wholesale swap rates may be sharply lower today across the maturity curve as the RBNZ moves to correct ‘interpretation errors’ by financial markets. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.48% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.73%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.85%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -14 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.53%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Monday’s rate down -2 bps at 4.58%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bps from yesterday at 4.17%.

EQUITIES ALL WEAKER, EXCEPT THE NZX
The local equity market is up +0.1% in Tuesday trade so far. But that is enough for it to be the best market among those we follow. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.5% but Shanghai is down -1.0% so far. Singapore is down -0.4% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 down -0.2%.

OIL SOFTER AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just on US$56.50/bbl while the international Brent price is at just on US$60/bbl. Both levels are new two month lows.

CARBON PRICE INCHES LOWER AGAIN
Secondary market transactions are still small and far between, and still inching lower, now to $38.75/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH, SILVER UP
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$17/oz from this morning, now at US$4307/oz. Silver is rising however, now just under US$64/oz.

NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 87 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 49.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.8 and down -40 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$85,930 and down -3.9% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate also at +/- 2.6%.

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