There was an encouraging start to this season, with five points from the first three games, including a draw in Perth and a home win over Brisbane Roar. But since then it has been mostly bleak, aside from a 2-1 win over Adelaide United. The Phoenix lost both derbies and produced an insipid display against Macarthur at home.
Last Sunday’s 3-1 loss to the Newcastle Jets was the nadir, in front of the lowest crowd in Phoenix history (3030). The Jets were bottom of the table coming into the match but carved out numerous chances, as the high defensive line employed by Italiano was again exposed. That high line has become a lightning rod for criticism, with Italiano insistent they have to persevere despite it costing goals in almost every match.
Publicly, Italiano has also veered into dangerous territory in recent press conferences, appearing to blame his players for their inability to execute what is a difficult and complicated strategy. The bare facts are the Phoenix have won five of their last 29 matches, a statistic that would have any coach under pressure. Although a spate of injuries has been a factor, there needs to be a turnaround quickly.
The Phoenix powerbrokers might accept missing the finals again this season but they need to see progress and evidence of the team moving in the right direction. That’s not yet apparent. It’s also affecting the growth of promising players. Luke Brooke-Smith is tipped for big things – maybe even a World Cup bolter – but has only had 156 minutes so far this season, all off the bench.
The Phoenix won’t want to make a change before the end of the season. Such moves always create uncertainty and upheaval, along with the financial costs of payouts. But they also can’t endure another campaign as bad as last season, or risk an even worse one. They’ve only claimed the wooden spoon once before, in the 2012-2013 campaign, which involved foundation coach Ricki Herbert departing in February of that season. Darje Kalezic was another mid-season casualty, during the 2017-18 campaign, when the club ended one point off the bottom with a record low of 21 points (five wins).
A crunch could come over the next six weeks. After Sunday’s home match against 10th placed Central Coast Mariners (3pm), which looms as a must win, they have one of the toughest stretches of their season, with away matches against the Melbourne Victory, Brisbane Roar, Sydney FC and Newcastle Jets, along with another visit from Adelaide United.
That period has the potential to define the season – for better or for worse – and shape Italiano’s future. The schedule so far has been favourable, with six of the first nine games in Wellington, but only gets trickier from here.
Michael Burgess has been a Sports Journalist for the New Zealand Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.