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The Oscar race is fluid, not static. So much can change the course of the race, including the tension between the defacto frontrunner and the come from beind underdog. Usually, a film from the film festivals wins Best Picture. Oppenheimer is one of the few exceptions. The argument for Sinners felt like it was on that level. Ryan Coogler delivered an original, exciting film that landed in the zeitgeist. People were actually talking about going to the movies and watching it on repeat. It was a sensation. So of course it should be considered Best Picture of the Year.
The Oscars are a whole different thing. They don’t reflect reality, or at least the reality of most of this country. They reflect a global community of like-minded people, artists, critics, bloggers and industry voters. We can think of them like the First Class Section of the Airplane rather than Coach.
When a popular movie lands in the Oscar race, it makes the Oscars makes sense, at least to me. It isn’t a coronation ceremony inside a closed off aristocracy, but a prize for everyone – those who make movies and those who buy tickets to see those movies. But those days are over, or at least for the most part they are.
I haven’t seen many movies this year but I doubt I’ll see anything better than Sinners, though Eddington comes in as a close second. Sinners, to me, is a gothic, sensual, brilliant masterpiece – a film only Ryan Coogler could have made. It is an artistic rendering of the history of Black America vis a vis the music. I loved it.
And all of that is separate from the cultural context of the times we’re living through. If anything, that conversation ruins it for me. Not everything is political and shouldn’t have to be. Not everything is a response to Donald Trump, and shouldn’t have to be. And yet, I know what you know about what people who rule over the Oscars think. They see themselves at war with him and the other half (the working class half) of the country, people who need art and culture too.
I didn’t expect this race to come down to Sinners versus One Battle After Another, and from the same studio, no less. I thought the film festivals would produce a more formidable contender, and that might turn out to be true with Hamnet. We will find out this weekend when the Toronto Film Festival hands out its awards.
The case can be made for each of these films.
Sinners wins – the Academy finally, after 98 years, decides to award the first Black director. It would be shocking and well-deserved. But beyond that, Sinners will be among the few films made this year that will even be remembered next year. I’ve never seen a movie like Sinners. It reminds of the movies Hollywood used to make way back when with deep character development and an unpredictable storyline. Coogler’s creative thumbprint is all over it. Drawbacks: do people see it as a “genre movie” and therefore not “important” enough? Does a movie about vampires seem silly? Do they not get it or relate to it? Is it too violent? Will the international voters vibe the message, which is very American-centric?
One Battle After Another Wins — no matter what else going on in this world or the industry, they just like the movie best because it “feels” important, and it reflects the rage of today (all Trump supporters are racist white supremacists and the good people are at war with them). PTA is a worthy and well-respected artist who is certainly overdue. If Sinners wasn’t so good, it would be hard to argue agains this movie winning since it feels very much like a reflection of the industry and the global community. Drawbacks: Sinners, for one thing, but also a film about political violence and gunfire right now might leave a bad taste in voters mouths. Although with these sociopaths, maybe it scratches an itch — just kidding. Kind of.
Hamnet wins — the heart wants what it wants. It’s the rare movie that makes people swoon like this one has. The love for it is off the charts. It also appeals to actors because it’s about the origins of Hamlet, for crying out loud. But it’s also about the theater — art — acting, which is the purest form of what they do. The best thing it has going for it is that it is not violent and it’s not political, that means loving it is not complicated. It’s one green light after another. That’s the kind of movie that does well on a preferential ballot. Both Sinners and One Battle are likely to be movies that don’t do as well (though I expect Sinners does slightly better on that). Drawbacks: it might be TOO emotional for some such that they tune it out.
I think Sinners and One Battle are a problem for the other. I think it’s possible they divide the house and in a case of five, like at the DGA or SAG, they could split the vote, leaving the path clear for Hamnet. And that’s assuming no other film will rise up in the next few months. There is always that possibility. But history tells us that we’ve already seen the winner by now.
I’ll say one thing about Ryan Coogler, and it’s to his credit, he isn’t one for the dog and pony show that is Oscar campaigning. I think if you want to win you have to be out there at parties, doing interviews. It is how the game is played, which is kind of depressing but it is what it is.
If Hamnet wins the People’s Choice Award this weekend, that will give it a necessary boost to launch it into the race and a maybe frontrunner.
Here is the complicated voting procedure for the People’s Choice, according to Wikipedia:
At each film screening, attendees are invited to “vote” for the film as People’s Choice after the show. However, to ensure that the voting process does not bias the award toward films that screened in larger theatres and that a film’s own cast and crew cannot stuff the ballot box, the overall number of votes received is also weighted against the size of the screening audience. For example, a film which screened in a smaller theatre, but had a highly passionate fan base, can have an advantage over a film that had a larger number of raw votes but a more mixed or uneven reception. Because each film is screened multiple times over the course of the entire festival, the process also enables the organizers to evaluate which films are generating more audience buzz, by virtue of a significant increase in attendance and/or People’s Choice votes at the follow-up screenings; films that are in strong contention for the People’s Choice Award will often, although not always, have extra screenings added to the program toward the end of the festival, although this still does not necessarily guarantee that a film with added screenings will always make the top three.
Here is how our team is predicting these:
Scott Kernen:
TIFF audience award
1. Hamnet
2. Rental Family
3. The Voice of Hind Rajab
TIFF international award
1. The Voice of Hind Rajab
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
Jeremy Jentzen
1. The Smashing Machine
2. Hamnet
3. Sentimental Value
International
1. The Voice of Hind Rajab
2. No Other Choice
3. It Was Just an Accident
Sasha Stone
1. The Voice of Hind Rajab
2. Hamnet
3. Sentimental Value
International
1. The Voice of Hind Rajab
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just an Accident
Here is the history:
The Shape of Water played Toronto but did not place in the People’s Choice Awards. That’s also true of The Artist and Moonlight. Because Sinners and One Battle are films that will not compete alongside Hamnet, we have no way of measuring which is more liked. We won’t even really know until we see what thousands of voters choose, most notably the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild.
I can easily see either Paul Thomas Anderson or Ryan Coogler winning the DGA. My gut tells me it’s PTA’s time but my heart wants it to be Coogler’s. I don’t think this award will split. I think whoever wins Best Picture also wins Best Director.
The problem with Sinners and One Battle is that these are both movies that require a specific taste, I’m guessing, not ones you can sit anyone down in front of. I’ll to wait to render a final verdict on that, but I think with both movies there are things about them that might confuse viers and/or rub them the wrong way.
The thing is, this is an industry that wants to give an Oscar to Paul Thomas Anderson. I don’t think they ever thought Ryan Coogler would come so close as he is right now to winning those top prizes. But the love for PTA is bigger. Even Dave Karger, the King of the Oscars, thinks it’s the best film of the year:
I do view those who mingle with “the talent” with a fair bit of skepticism, it does color one’s view, but I trust Dave. So I guess I’ll just say that I still see it as the frontrunner. But I’m not quite ready to predict it yet.
Here are my predictions (which you can also find on the Awards Expert app).
Best Picture
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Jay Kelly
Weapons
It Was Just an Accident
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Sydney Sweeney, Christy
Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Supporting Actor
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Original Screenplay
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Jay Kelly
Weapons
It Was Just An Accident
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Wicked: For Good
The Life of Chuck
Bugonia
Casting
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Rental Family
International
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
No Other Choice
Sound of Falling
Cinematography
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Hamnet
Editing
One Battle After Another
Sinners
F1
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Costumes
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Frankensten
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Hair and Makeup
The Smashing Machine
Christy
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Sinners
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Superman
Wicked: For Good
F1
The Fantastic 4
Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Score
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Frankenstein
Hamnet
The Testament of Ann Lee
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