Historically, the third year in government has not been kind to Winston Peters or his party.
New Zealand First’s vote fell below five percent at the 1999, 2008 and 2020 elections, saved from exile only in the first instance by Peters’ narrow, 63-vote win in his Tauranga electorate.
But as we move into election year, there is some reason to think the veteran politician could break new ground in 2026.
For one, New Zealand First has ended the year up rather than down in the polls, with its roughly 9 percent average putting it on track to grow its caucus come election time.
Ask Peters why he thinks that is, and the man puts it down to what he sees as the contrast in the two terms of the last Labour government – one with his party, and one without.
“The public saw between 2020 and 2023 what some parties are like when they’ve got no adults in the room: the level of inexperience that Labour exhibited in those three years is colossal, unbelievable, and they resorted to borrow and hope…
“I think people have looked back and said, ‘I kind of think those guys [New Zealand First] have got far better – they’re far more helpful in the room than being outside’.”
Yet if New Zealand First has benefited from Labour’s perceived haplessness in government, the same isn’t true for its partners, with National’s support having steadily eroded and Act largely flatlining. That could put the coalition’s re-election prospects at risk, yet Peters hardly seems inclined to offer Christopher Luxon or David Seymour any pointers on where they are going wrong.
“Everything I’ve learned in politics is designed for me to talk to my own party and not talk to any other party about what I know…
“If you don’t mind, I’m getting ready for an election in 2026: have you heard the expression, keeping your powder and shot dry?”
Yet Peters appears increasingly willing to engage in friendly fire, first suggesting Luxon’s talk of asset sales next term shows National has failed to run the economy properly then pledging to repeal Seymour’s flagship Regulatory Standards Act next term.
Unsurprisingly, the New Zealand First leader is unrepentant on both counts. Of the spat with National, he says: “We have a coalition which says there were no asset sales, so why did somebody start a discussion on asset sales, and I get blamed for it?”
Seymour’s 2021 version of the Regulatory Standards Bill included a clause requiring a favourable result in a referendum before the law would come into effect, and Peters says his party relied on such a provision appearing again in the legislation they indirectly agreed to support during coalition negotiations after the 2023 election.
“We thought that if it was in there in 2022, you could expect they’d put it back in the game, and they said no. OK, well, there’ll be a [de facto] referendum at the 2026 election – now, what’s new about that?”
Seymour responded to Peters’ positioning by suggesting New Zealand First was lining up to go into coalition with Labour, a claim the latter dismisses as “just laughable”.
‘I made it very clear when I found out after the 2020 election what they’d withheld from me … I looked back and thought to myself, I’m never going to deal with that sort of person again.’
Winston Peters on his relationship with Labour
Could his party work with Labour and its leader Chris Hipkins, given the acrimony that has grown since their ill-fated partnership under Jacinda Ardern?
“I made it very clear when I found out after the 2020 election what they’d withheld from me … I looked back and thought to myself, I’m never going to deal with that sort of person again…
“When you give people that sort of opportunity, which they would have never got, you expect that they can keep their deal and they never did.”
There clearly are some ongoing links between the two parties, with Stuff reporting on informal conversations about the looming election and potential outcomes.
“I’ve worked with a lot of people and across a lot of parties, because your job when you’re in a coalition is to do your utmost to provide the country with stability,” Peters says, when asked whether there are current Labour MPs who he’s comfortable working with.
“But here’s my point: have a good hard look at the Labour Party today and tell me, how could they even find half a Cabinet? Go on, have a decent, good look…
“They ain’t got the talent. Where are the [David] Parkers, where are all those sorts of people, the Helen Clarks and Heather Simpsons? This party has been gouged out badly when it comes to talent.”
Even with those stinging remarks, Peters still shies away from directly ruling out any governing relationship with Labour come the next term.
“I must be the only political leader that a year out from the election, everybody’s asking that question,” he complains. Isn’t that because he’s the only leader overseeing a party that could viably work with either major party?
“Go and ask them whether they’ll work with me. The last election I was ruled out by everybody else, remember?
“So I think you should go and ask them, ‘Would you work with New Zealand First?’ Because this will be a very apposite question for them come the ‘26 election.”
Asked what voters should be looking for from New Zealand First, he demurs.
“We have a KGB oversight over our strategy for the next election, and the last thing I can do is tell you – nothing gets leaked more in this game than people’s asset advantages.”
Yet despite that trademark secrecy, it is clear Peters is feeling bullish as he prepares to start yet another year in Parliament.
“I’ve got a rejuvenated party, a whole lot of keen young people, seriously keen young people. A lot of realists out there are contacting us, even sometimes through the back door, saying, ‘You guys have got to go for it, because we don’t think we’re going to make it without you’.”