$18m and almost a decade to future-proof Milford Sound. What’s come of it?

About $18 million later and several reports culminating in the MOP’s business case in mid-2024, what’s there to show for it?

Not a lot on the ground as yet, but a closer look reveals the ongoing work is ahead of schedule.

The business case timeline said legislated changes were needed to enable an access charge for foreign visitors. This money pot wouldn’t start to fill until 2028, and would then fund new projects.

But the Government has already committed $15.2m to start the work, while also progressing some of the recommended law changes.

“Ministers and officials have taken ideas we suggested would be done later, and pulled them forward to do now,” said Chris Goddard, who was the MOP director when the 462-page business case report was delivered to the Government 18 months ago.

“It’s quite heartening. The vision is in the plan. Bringing the vision to life is the minister and the department’s job, which appears to be underway.”

The real test will be what the place looks like in 20 years, and the present work is shaping that.

By then, one of the questions about what to fund in the longer term will be answered: how to manage the risk of a magnitude-8 earthquake unzipping the Alpine Fault.

New Zealand’s big-risk Alpine Fault has a 75% chance of causing a major quake – most likely a powerful magnitude-8 event – within the next 50 years.

This could trigger a landslide into the fiord, sending a tsunami to swallow anyone along or near the shoreline, from the tourist boat marina in Freshwater Basin to the staff quarters near Deepwater Basin.

If this occurred at the busiest time of day for boat tours, it could put more than 3500 lives at risk.

“The thing that worries me is people’s safety – the workforce and the visitors,” said Goddard, who worked for 27 years in the mining industry.

“Maybe it’s the miner in me, but sending them into a place where I can’t be confident, if there’s a 75% chance of a rupture in the next 50 years – that doesn’t feel right.

“Finishing the research and working out whether this is a real problem and what we need to do to address that problem – that would be top of my list.”

Controversial concepts scrapped

Congestion and environmental degradation are not new issues for Milford Sound tourism. They have been around for more than four decades.

Visitor numbers doubled between 2012 and 2019, with annual numbers now exceeding 1 million, including some 220,000 who arrive by cruise ship.

The MOP was established in 2017, a collaboration between key stakeholders including local government, Ngāi Tahu, and several government departments, such as conservation, transport, and Tourism NZ.

Its task was to investigate future-proofing one of New Zealand’s most iconic tourism assets, which was becoming crowded, rushed, noisy and unsafe.

Cruise ships bring an estimated 220,000 visitors to Piopiotahi/Milford Sound annually. A proposal to ban them has been dropped, along with phasing out fixed-wing aircraft. Photo / Celebrity Cruises

The 2024 business case ditched some of the more controversial recommendations in the MOP’s 2021 masterplan, which, unsurprisingly, had rubbed some local businesses the wrong way.

These included a ban on cruise ships, phasing out fixed-wing aircraft, and preventing most private vehicle access, with most visitors using a park-and-ride bus system from Te Anau.

Instead, the business case recommended strategies to minimise car congestion, including encouraging the use of tourism operators.

It also put forward facility upgrades costing $592m, self-funded from a $75-$100 access fee for foreigners that would also provide $114m in the first 10 years for conservation.

A much-smaller funding pot

The Government response, a year later, opted for no restrictions on driving to Milford Sound, instead ordering “further work”, according to the Cabinet paper.

It had already started consulting on recommended legislative changes, including enabling charging for access and improving the concessions process.

But expectations for the access fee are only between $20 and $40. This is in part due to concerns over the cumulative impact of multiple charges: parking and access fees for several destinations, such as Milford Sound and Aoraki National Park, on top of a $100 International Visitor Levy (up from $35).

A much-lower fee, feeding a much-smaller fund for Milford Sound upgrades, has sown some doubts about the level of infrastructure improvements in the coming years.

Mitre Peak, Milford Sound’s most recognisable mountain, greets cruise passengers on a chilly July afternoon. Photo / Thomas Bywater

Goddard said the business case report would be useful well into the future, should the Government of the day wish to revisit any of the issues.

The park-and-ride bus system wasn’t necessarily dead, for example.

“Ministers haven’t prioritised it this time around. That doesn’t mean they never will,” he said.

“Already, half the visitors coming to New Zealand for a holiday end up in Piopiotahi some time in their journey. As these new investments turn up, you’re going to see a natural increase of interest in going to Piopiotahi.

“The work is there for them to stand on, whenever they want to revisit that.”

Nor was the access fee rate chiselled into concrete.

“Whether it’s $20 at the start or $40 or $60 later on, having that funding can quickly build up, allowing you to invest. Just imagine what predator-free Fiordland would look like – to have that cacophony of birdsong when you go into Piopiotahi.”

Slowing down and spreading out

One of the main issues is the “race to the boat” mindset: visitors driving from Te Anau or, more popularly, Queenstown all the way to the sounds for a boat trip and then driving all the way back.

This clogs SH94 mainly at two points: the carpark at Freshwater Basin and Homer Tunnel, where traffic flows one way at a time.

An overview of attractions in the MOP business case plan. More attractions along the way would spread the crowds in the Milford Road corridor. Image /Supllied

An integral part of the MOP plan was providing visitors more reasons to stop along the way, thereby slowing their journey and spreading them more evenly along the Milford Road corridor.

The pleasant surprise for Goddard was that the Government has made a start on facility upgrades. A total of $15.2m has been committed for immediate works, which include:

$7m for a capital works programme, with upgrades to facilities at Key Summit Track, The Chasm and Marian Falls Track, and replacing the boat ramp in Deepwater Basin. $2.8m for a new loop walking track and viewing area in Gertrude Valley (which has fewer safety hazards than the steep hike to Gertrude Saddle);$1.55m for improvements to the Gertrude carpark and the amenities at Lake Marian, which feeds Marian Creek, where a girl tragically drowned in 2024;$1m for cultural storytelling, including a new gateway pou whenua signalling entry into the national park;$750,000 for upgrades to Deepwater Basin, including a new toilet block;$300,000 for “visitor behaviour change”, that is, encouraging them to slow down.

Department of Conservation (DoC) documents released to the Herald reveal a list of proposals that have been assessed for future investment in the longer term.

These include a cycleway, a new backcountry hut in the Countess Range, developments at Lake Gunn and Monkey Creek, and a “Lone Tree new walk”.

One of the highest-scoring proposals is a walkway and lookout on a spur of Barren Peak, across from Mitre Peak and above the fiord.

This would not only dilute the concentration of tourists waiting for their boat cruise, but would be a refuge point – 50-60m above sea level – from an incoming tsunami.

Chris Goddard was director of the Milford Opportunities Porject when it delivered its business case report in mid-2024. Photo / Marjorie Cook

‘Over 3500 fatalities’

Goddard said the great unknown was how long people would have to “run up to the viewing platform and ride out the tsunami there”.

The MOP board strongly supported the Barren Peak proposal, although much uncertainty remained about what would unfold in the event of an Alpine Fault rupture.

“Whether it happens today or in 50 years, the impact on the fiord is not well understood,” Goddard said.

The MOP business case report called it potentially “catastrophic”.

“The fatalities following a landslide-induced tsunami could be over 3500 if it happened on a busy summer day and given the current infrastructure,” the report said.

”There is a 16% chance of an event of that kind happening over 50 years.”

The Cabinet paper detailing the Government’s response described it as a “societal (mass fatality) risk”.

“Modelling indicates very few (less than 5%) would escape the estimated inundation zone. Previous work has shown evacuation options to be very limited and potentially ineffectual.”

It said commissioning new modelling was being considered because existing modelling was “simple and is not as precise as more modern methods would provide for”.

Mitigation measures in the meantime include a communication plan, so people heading to Milford Sound are aware of the potential disaster that awaits.

But this is not expected to “materially change the level of societal risk”, suggesting such warnings fall mostly on deaf ears.

A lokoout at a spur on Barren Peak is one potential refuge spot in a tsunami. The Milford Opportunities Project also recommended transitioning local worker accommodation further from the Cleddau Delta to the Cleddau Flats service area, where the inundation risk would be minimal. Image / Supplied

The MOP business case also recommended shifting the local workforce out of the inundation zone.

Further up the river valley, a former landfill site (recently remediated) could be rebranded the Cleddau Flats Service Area.

Goddard pointed to research showing it would be relatively safe from tsunami inundation. Core workers who needed to be close to the fiord could live there in new staff quarters.

The rest of the workforce could live on the other side of Homer Tunnel, potentially at an expanded tourism hub at Knobs Flat featuring new walkways, cycleways and staff accommodation.

Knobs Flat is also on DoC’s list of longer-term investment proposals, but only for a new waterfall walk, which has a relatively low assessment score.

So, how to mitigate the “mass fatality” risk remains unresolved, but Goddard said he was optimistic about the 20-year outlook.

“My youngest grandchild is 9 months old. One of the things I’d like to do is take him into the place when he’s 18 or so, and show him what it was that New Zealand delivered.”

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.