Weather: Fire risk with temperatures set to soar amid strong wind, scorching heat

Heat alerts have been issued for the aforementioned regions, as well as Paihia and Russell, Whangārei, Whitianga, Tauranga, Whakatāne, Gisborne, Masterton and Motueka.

MetService said temperature records could break in some areas, including Napier, where the January record of 36.9C in 1979 is only 0.9C above the forecast for Sunday.

Records could roll this weekend in some places! Here are a few forecast maximum temperatures as of this morning (Friday)🌡

Heat alerts are in place for the following on Saturday:

Paihia and Russel, Whangārei, Whitianga, Tauranga, Whakatāne, Gisborne, Napier, Hastings,… pic.twitter.com/qAZfCUi3bY

— MetService NZ (@MetService) January 8, 2026

Heat alerts are made a day out from hot weather and are based on each centre’s usual summer highs and/or how many days of hot weather are forecast.

MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley told the Herald a heat alert warns people of more than a “typical hot summer’s day”.

Those in areas under alert are urged to check in on their most vulnerable, including babies and the elderly, and ensure pets are “well cared for” with water and shade, he said.

“People can see some health effects from this sort of thing.”

More than a dozen heat warnings have been issued across the country for the weekend. Photo / Alex Burton

Fire and Emergency New Zealand told people to be cautious over the weekend as the heat is set to combine with windy weather to create “elevated fire danger conditions”.

A total fire ban has been placed in parts of Hawke’s Bay and the Far North. Fire access is restricted in areas of the Bay of Plenty, Wellington, Marlborough, Canterbury, Southland and the South Island’s West Coast, meaning people may need to apply for a permit to light one.

“If your weekend plans include any activities involving an outdoor fire or spark/heat-generating activities such as using power tools and mowing the lawn, we’re asking you to consider postponing these activities.”

In a social media post, Fire and Emergency recommended physically checking any burn piles are fully extinguished, suggesting people pour more water on them if unsure.

Pawley told the Herald the rising temperatures are because of a “big, warm, moist air mass” that is set to pass over the country after causing a heatwave and sparking large bushfires in Australia. There, temperatures in some areas rose to 45C.

“This hot air mass has been over Australia for a little while … We won’t see those same extreme temperatures but we’ll be seeing things that are still pretty hot for New Zealand.”

A series of wind and rain warnings have also been issued across the lower North Island and much of the South Island this weekend.

Gusts of up to 130km/h are expected in exposed parts of the Canterbury high country and the surrounding foothills.

Heavy rain warnings are in place for parts of Westland and Fiordland, with a burst of rain expected on Saturday and Sunday.

“For those southern parts, between Haast and Doubtful Sound, we have a period from 3am on Saturday to 9am on Sunday. And so the peak rates are expected Saturday morning and again Sunday morning,” Pawley said.

Warnings & Watches have been issued for this weekend 🟠🟡

Heavy rain and strong winds are expected for parts of the South Island and Central New Zealand as a front, preceded by a strong, moist northwesterly flow moves up.

For more information: https://t.co/qHyE5zySvx pic.twitter.com/TiaxF7viX7

— MetService NZ (@MetService) January 8, 2026

Further north, there are heavy rain watches across the Grey and Buller districts in the upper South Island from noon-11pm Sunday.

A strong wind watch is in place for the Marlborough area from 1-10am Sunday and in the Wellington and Wairarapa area from 2am Sunday to 4am Monday.

Pawley advised people in affected areas to prepare their properties and drive cautiously in anticipation of the heavy rain and wind.

“If you’re in those regions where a heavy rain warning is in place, or indeed a watch further north, it’s a good idea to clear your drains and gutters and make sure that you’re prepared for the rain that’s coming through.

“We can expect that there might be some damage to trees and power lines … [and] with winds picking up, wildfires can get out of hand quite quickly.”

Hot start for 2026

For the first few months of this year, above-average temperatures are expected, particularly in the north and west of the North Island.

The Earth Sciences seasonal climate outlook for January to March also indicated above-average rainfall for the north and east of the North Island, and below-average rainfall for the west of the South Island.

Fedaeff said a weak La Nina would be at play over New Zealand to start the year.

“That means we get more northerly and northeasterly winds, so more weather from the tropics, which is a warm place.”

Factors typically contributing to hotter years included warm seas.

MetService says New Zealand’s high temperatures are being caused by remnants of the Australian heatwave earlier this week. Photo / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images

“Marine heatwave conditions, which are in play now, they don’t turn off as quickly as air temperatures do.”

Earth Sciences’ latest annual climate report showed 2025 was New Zealand’s fourth-hottest year on record, with four of its five warmest years occurring since 2021.

“We already have this massive boost from climate change,” Fedaeff said. “That means that we’re starting off on a warmer note just because we’ve loaded that dice already.”

The climate report found most regions were hotter than average by between 0.51C and 1.2C, but parts of Northland and Bay of Plenty were significantly hotter, by more than 1.2C.

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