One and a half million Australians are at risk from sea levels rising by 2050 unless climate change can be limited, Australia’s first national climate risk assessment has warned.
It found under 1.5C of warming, sea levels would rise by 0.14m, but they would rise by 0.54m under a 3C scenario — with Queensland home to 18 of the 20 most-exposed regions.
The assessment, which is the single most-significant body of climate work by the Australian government, also warns that 597,000 people are living in areas that will become exposed to sea level rise by 2030.
The grim document has been released days ahead of the federal government committing to its emissions target for 2035, and a meeting at the United Nations where countries will update their commitments.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said the assessment was an honest warning of the cost of failing to act.
“I think many Australians will find this report confronting … I would say to people, let’s be clear-eyed about the challenges, let’s be realistic about the threats, but let’s be optimistic for the future,” Mr Bowen said.
“One thing that is very clear from this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake.
“The cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action.”
3C scenario brings rise in heatwave deaths, loss of nature, $40b disaster bill
The National Climate Risk Assessment modelled impacts under three scenarios: 1.5C of warming, 2C of warming and 3C of warming.
The Climate Change Authority says based on current global commitments, the world is on track to see 2.9C of warming this decade.
“Even if emissions fell immediately tomorrow, there would still be impacts of climate change on our country. The report makes that clear. So, yes, the world needs to keep working on emissions reduction. The world is,” Mr Bowen said.
“But countries are continuing the journey. There will be bumps and headwinds along the journey.”
Mr Bowen confirmed he had received the Climate Change Authority’s advice on Australia’s 2035 target, and said he was confident it would be a target that could be achieved and that Australians could have “pride” in.
While the National Climate Risk Assessment provides a national picture of Australia’s potential future, it has also detailed potential impacts at a local level.
The assessment shows Northern Australia will be particularly prone to hazards, with more pressure on population health, critical infrastructure and natural species.
But everywhere can be expected to feel the impacts.
Heatwave deaths in Sydney, for example, would rise by more than 400 per cent under a 3C scenario, and would still double under 1.5C scenario.
In Melbourne, deaths from heatwaves would rise by 259 per cent under 3C, and 60 per cent under 1.5C.
Nationally, the cost of disaster recovery can also be expected to increase dramatically to more than $40 billion a year by 2050, and would be worse under a 3C scenario.
There would also be a $611 billion hit to property values by that time.
Forty to 70 per cent of species will be “forced to move, adapt to the new conditions or die out” under a 3C scenario, with half of plant life in any location becoming different species to what was in environments in 1990.
Eucalypt forests will come under threat and there would be an almost certain risk of “catastrophic consequences” for coral reefs.
“The future may no longer support systems such as alpine ecosystems, tall open forests and ancient Gondwanan rainforest,” the report also warns.
And in a warning as South Australia suffers through an algal bloom, the risk assessment also warns that marine life has “no room to move” in the Southern Ocean, and would need to adapt or die out.
But alongside the risk assessment, the government has also released an adaptation plan developed in response to it that lays the foundations for how Australia can reduce the worst impacts of climate change.
The plan prioritises actions to support “disproportionately vulnerable” Australians, federal responsibility and directing resources to the highest-risk issues.
It includes developing plans to make insurance affected by climate change sustainable, developing climate resilience as a part of the National Construction Code, and “climate-adapted services” for people with disabilities and chronic illness, among a host of other possible measures.
An “action agenda” will be developed in partnership with the states by the end of 2026 to identify priority areas for adaptation.
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