The labour market has continued to surprise economists, shocking several into bringing forward their rate-rise predictions to February. Others are holding off on a final forecast until this week’s inflation data is published.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Consumer price index, December 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 28 January 2026
What to expect: All eyes are on the release of inflation data this week ahead of the Reserve Bank’s February rate decision. While some economists — notably those at UBS, HSBC and Bank of America — pulled forward rate rise expectations to next month due to stronger than expected unemployment figures and jobs growth, many others are waiting for this final data release before finalising their calls.
The Commonwealth Bank is tipping a 0.3% monthly rise for the headline figure with an annual rate at 3.8%. On a trimmed mean basis, it’s eyeing 0.9% a quarter — down from 1% in the third quarter — but still “well above the pace consistent with the RBA achieving its inflation target”. CBA’s trimmed mean annual forecast is 3.3%, up from 3% in the third quarter.