The state pension is on course to rise by 4.7 per cent next year, in line with earnings growth, adding fiscal pressure on the government ahead of the budget.

Official figures showed that average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose from 4.6 per cent to 4.7 per cent in the three months to July. The period is used as the benchmark for the triple lock pension upgrade, which commits the government to raising the state pension by the highest of annual inflation, average earnings or 2.5 per cent.

Inflation figures for September are used as the index month for the triple lock the following year. Economists and the Bank of England expect consumer price growth will hit 4 per cent this month.

A 4.7 per cent jump in the state pension is an increase on the 4.1 per cent rise last year. If confirmed, it will lift the basic state pension for those retiring after April 2016 to £241.05 a week from the current £230.25, and up from £155.65 a decade ago. This would amount to an annual jump from £11,973 a year to £12,534.60 in 2026.

The uplift means the state pension could exceed the personal allowance threshold of £12,570 from 2027 for the first time if the government makes no change to the tax-free allowance.

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For those reaching pension age before April 2016, the allowance is on course to increase from £176.45 a week to £184.75 a week.

Labour has committed to maintaining the triple lock, which was first introduced by George Osborne when he was chancellor in 2010, despite calls for the expensive policy to be scrapped.

The International Monetary Fund has said Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, should consider reforming the triple lock and moving to an indexed pension uprating to reduce the burden on the public finances. The state pension grew by more than ten per cent in April 2023 and more than eight per cent in April 2024 when the UK suffered the worst rise in inflation since the 1980s.

Spending on pensioners is likely to reach at least £180 billion by the end of the decade, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government’s independent fiscal watchdog.

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said Reeves “and the government will come under increasing pressure to make a decision regarding either the personal allowance or whether it can sustain the triple lock as it has promised at least to the end of this parliament”.