Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SHARP IMPROVEMENT
Our current account deficit shrinks by more than expected in Q2-2025 and for the full year to June. The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend has narrowed considerably in moves that will please the global credit rating agencies.

BUYERS MARKET EXTENDS
High stock levels and large number of properties being withdrawn from sale suggest buyers remain firmly in control of the housing market. Housing sales trends suggest buyers’ market will continue into spring.

ONLY A SMALL DIP, BUT HURT MORE BY THE FALLING USD
The overnight dairy auction brought a much better result than expected with the declines for both WMP and SMP nowhere near as sharp as indicated by the earlier derivatives pricing. That will very much ease the pressure on any farm gate payout forecasts. The detail is interesting. There was notably softer demand from China for WMP, but that was countered by stronger SE Asian demand. Cheddar cheese prices rose because of some unexpected demand from North America, But mozzarella prices dived -9.6% on weak Chinese demand. Overall prices slipped just -0.8% in USD, but there were down a sharpish -2.9% in NZD as the greenback took a tumble overnight.

SOGGY
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index edged down 0.3 ppts in September to a level of 90.9 – effectively unchanged from the June quarter and still a fair way below historic averages.

RESPONSIBLE VS IRRESPONSIBLE
Canterbury waterways are still showing long-term increases in nitrate pollution. Almost all that is coming from intensive farming. Now regulator eCan has declared an ’emergency’ to try and get on top of the issue before the human health issues spread. But they are up against the farming lobby who seem to have the Government in their back pocket. At least e-Can is making an attempt to draw a line in the sand. But expect Wellington to move to overrule them.

NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% its Wednesday session. It is down -0.8% over the past five working days. However it is up +0.8% year-to-date. And it is now up almost +4.0% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.0% today so far. a2 Milk, Hallenstein Glassons, Fletcher, and Oceania lead the decliners. Kathmandu, Channel Infrastructure, AirNZ, and Briscoes top the gainers.

MOST SUERCHARGING TO GO
The law change to ban card surcharging is working its way through the Parliamentary process now after its launch and ‘first reading‘. The Retail Payment System (Ban on Merchant Surcharges) Amendment Bill passed its first reading last night. The Bill prohibits surcharges on all in-store EFTPOS, Visa and Mastercard payments. The Commerce Commission estimates consumers pay about $150 million in surcharges annually. An estimated $65 million of that is excessive. The merchants pay the card issuers $1 bln in interchange fees annually. The Commerce Commission is or has moved to reduce that by about $230 mln per year.

HANGING IN THERE
Japanese exports were little changed in August, a better result than expected. Japanese imports fell -5.2% and a bit more than expected to a 6 month low. That meant their August trade deficit came in smaller than anticipated. Better results are likely in future as the US eased up on its tariff punishment.

SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be a touch lower again today across all durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.96% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at 4.23%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 1.86%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 4.31%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -4 bps at 4.28% at the end of Tuesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from yesterday at this time, now at 4.03%.

EQUITIES IN MOSTLY MODEST MOVEMENTS
The local equity market is down +0.5% in Wednesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2%. Hong Kong however is up +1.1% with Shanghai up a lesser +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session down -0.1% on the S&P500 in the shadow of tomorrow’s Fed decision.

OIL UP
The oil price in the US is up +US$1 from yesterday at this time at just under US$64.50/bbl but the international Brent price is just under US$68.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STUCK
There have been very few trades today, still at $57.50. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5 from yesterday, now at US$3682/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now up +0 bps to just over 66.7.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$116,781 and up +1.5% from yesterday. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 0.9%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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