Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB today dropped its 6 month and one year fixed rates and that takes its one year rate to 4.39%, the lowest in the current market. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB also raised rates for TDs, for 9 months and longer. These changes essentially match the big five banks. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

ON THE UP
Westpac says it is noticing an encouraging lift in discretionary spending, with particularly large increases in spending in the hospitality sector, as well as increased sales of furnishings and other household durables. That equates to a +6% rise in January from a year ago.

MIXED
ANZ’s truckometer tracking of road activity shows their The Light Traffic Index (basically cars) eased -1.1% in January but is up a solid +3.6% year-on-year. The Heavy Traffic Index (basically commercial trucks) fell -2.4% in the month, but this was off the back of a +3.2% lift in December. It is up 2.0% year-on-year, with annual growth trending up, they report..

A DIFFERENT IMMIGRATION PROFILE
Student immigration is building back, but differently to pre-pandemic profiles. Secondary schools are increasingly popular with overseas students, tertiary institutions not so much. This is trend that has housing market implications.

JOINING THE PACK AFTER GETTING IT WRONG
ANZ analysts had set their dairy payout forecast way lower than other analysts. Today the shifted back in line with the consensus.

DO THE QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

MONITORING INTERNAL CORRUPTION
A review by the Anti-Corruption Taskforce of monitoring and controls at the Department of Corrections, Inland Revenue, ACC, Ministry of Social Development, Land Information New Zealand, and Sport New Zealand, found that cases of internal fraud and corruption are almost certainly being under-reported due to inadequate prevention and detection controls in some agencies, and gaps in reporting. Some were much better at this than others. Leading tis review was the SFO.

NZX50 IN A SMALL SLIP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today. That puts it down -0.1% over the past five working days. It is up +3.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is back up +1.4% so far today. Vulcan Steel, Napier Port, Property for Industry, and Precinct top today’s gainers as Freightways, SkyCity casino, Ryman, and Serko are the main decliners

RATES UP, SENTIMENT DOWN
In Australia, consumer sentiment slipped in February, and not insignificantly. Recall, the RBA has recently pushed through a rate rise. Analysts say the fall is muted response compared to previous rate hikes. Over 80% of those surveyed expect interest rates to rise further in the next 12 months. Homebuyer sentiment has sunk as price expectations hit new 15 year high.

SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate held at 2.49% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.85%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.80%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also unchanged at 2.27 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding as well at 4.56%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Monday’s rate also still at 4.54%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.19% and dipping lower toward mid-January levels.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, NZX MISSES OUT
But the local equity market is a little firmer in Tuesday trade, up +0.3% so far. The ASX200 is also up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up another +2.4% in its opening trade, with a post-election glow extending. Hong Kong is up another +1.2% today so far but Shanghai is up only +0.1%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street started its week firmly, with the S&P500 up +0.5%.

OIL FIRMER
American oil prices are up about +US$1 from yesterday at this time at just on US$64/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$69/bbl.

CARBON PRICE RISES
There have been some more good trades today on the secondary market and the price has risen +50c to $38.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold has risen slightly from this time yesterday, up +US$38/oz and now at US$5028/oz. Silver is up +US$2, now just over US$82/oz.

NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 85.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.9 and up +20 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,377 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate however at +/- 2.0%.

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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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