Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. These changes essentially match the big five banks. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RENTERS CHANGE OUT TO AVOID HIGHER RENTS
Bonds data shows a strong growth in rental activity in final quarter of 2025, but rents were softer overall. It was a shift particularly noticeable in the Wellington region.

MANY SELLING AT A LOSS
Cotality’s Pain & Gain Report shows nearly one-in-six (17.4%) of Auckland residential sales were done a sales prices that recorded a loss for the seller in the fourth quarter last year. Nationally it was one-in-eight.

RECORD HIGH PAYE TAXES ON INDIVIDUALS
Treasury released the six month Crown Accounts to December 2025 today. Comparing the the December HYEFU, the variances are generally ‘favourable. But the details revealed some interesting signals about the overall economy. First, December month GST revenue was weak, down -1.6% from the same month in 2024. But December income tax collected from individuals exceeded $6 bln for the first month ever, and was up 3.3% on December 2024 (+$460 mln). Together these metrics suggest a sluggish economy. GST has been stuck at the annual rate of $30 bln since August, with consumers quite restrained. But the income take jump reveals the corrosive power of bracket creep. Plus there were some big public sector backpay settlements made in the month (nurses and allied health workers). These enabled the Government to take an outsized share. Overall, OBEGAL turned positive in the month (+$388 mln) on the higher PAYE tax take, but for the rolling twelve months prior it is still at -$4.9 mln in deficit.

DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week’s edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 TURNS UP SLIGHTLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.3% so far today. That puts it up +0.5% over the past five working days. It is up +6.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today in a further yoyo pattern. Channel Infrastructure, Skellerup, Meridian, and Contact are the top gainers; SkyCity casino, Gentrack, Summerset, and Tourism Holdings are the big decliners

STILL IN HOT DEMAND – FOR THE RIGHT PRICE
There was another very popular NZGB tender today, seeking $450 mln in tow nominal bonds and $25 mln in an inflation linker. The two nominal bongs got 86 bids worth $1.79 bln. The resulting yields were marginally lower than the prior equivalent versions. The small linker went for a yield of 3.06% (plus CPI) and well above the 2024/2025 average of 2.64%..

PROFIT BOOST
ANZ released first quarter results for the Group and investors loved them, especially the profit rise from aggressive cost cutting, reporting AU$1.89 bln for the quarter. So far today, ANZ shares have risen +8.6%, and that pushes them up +27% from this time last year. Within the trading result data released, the rise in NZ home loans seems to be good, and the rise in deposits also good. Customer debt quality improved.

PROFIT DROP
Meanwhile, dominant insurer IAG reported its New Zealand results today, as part of the overall IAG reporting. Investors didn’t like this much, with their share price falling -5.6% today to be down -13.8% from a year ago. Their Group has got indigestion from trying to swallow the RACQ acquisition. Locally, insurance profit for NZ Retail (State and AMI) fell more than -5%, and for NZ Institutional (NZI) was down -27%. All this while the company acknowledged lower than expected extreme event claims. Together, New Zealand insurance profit of AU$268 mln was reported, down from AU$311 mln for the same six-month period in 2024/25.

CORPAY SLAPPED
Australian regulator ASIC has imposed additional licence conditions on the local subsidiary of Corpay following ongoing compliance failures in its foreign exchange derivatives business. Corpay also operates in New Zealand.

HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTED
In Australia. consumer inflation expectations rose in February to 5.0%. This follows a seven-month period of below five-per cent expectations. The increase in February is present across a number of inflation expectations measures.

SYSTEM CHANGE
And staying in Australia, chances are rising that extended drought conditions related to the return of an El Niño weather pattern will come later in 2026. It will be hotter there too. If that occurs, there will be spillover implications for New Zealand, particularly for the rural sector. At lease we are going into this with good hydrology.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally firmer today except perhaps for the 1 year. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate held at 2.49% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.80%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps 1.78%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -4 bps at 2.19 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.52%. The RBNZ data is now ‘prior day’ with Wednesday’s rate down -4 bps at 4.49%. The UST 10yr yield is back up +3 bps from yesterday, now just on 4.17%.

EQUITIES MIXED
But the local equity market is a little firmer in Thursday trade, up +0.2% so far. The ASX200 is up +1.0% however in afternoon trade. Tokyo is back from yesterday’s holiday and is weaker in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.6% today so far and Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 directionless, confused by the odd non-farm payrolls report.

OIL IN MARGINAL FIRMING
American oil prices are up about +50 USc from yesterday at this time at just on US$65/bbl, and the international Brent price is now at US$69.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market and the price is holding at $40.25/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has risen slightly from this time yesterday, up +US$11/oz and now at US$5059/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just over US$83/oz.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 84.8 AUc. Against the yen we are down -60 bps. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.9 and little-changed from yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,686 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate however at +/- 2.3%.

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