“Looking through monthly volatility, the trend is for strengthening net immigration inflows,” Smith said.
“The annualised net inflow over the last three months has risen to 25,000 persons, the highest in 18 months.”
While this was still well below the 135,000 October 2023 peak it was “moving in the right direction for supporting headline economic growth”, he said.
The number of New Zealand citizen departures for 2025 (66,300) was below that of 2024 departures (67,200).
That was the first decline for a calendar year since 2020, Smith said.
The net departures of New Zealand citizens eased to 40,000 (vs 43,700 a year ago).
“After plateauing in early 2024, arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens are now moving up with a total of 107,800 in New Zealand over 2025,” Smith said.
“Although the figures are notoriously volatile, the tide has turned. That shift is reflective of (and will reinforce) an improved New Zealand economic outlook for 2026.”
Meanwhile, annual tourism arrivals lifted and were now back to 90% of their pre-Covid level, Stats NZ said.
Overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand totalled 3.51 million in the December 2025 year, up 195,600 (6%) from the December 2024 year.
“The December 2025 year was the first annual period to exceed 3.5 million overseas visitor arrivals since the March 2020 year,” international travel spokesperson Bryan Downes said.
“The increase in overseas visitors to New Zealand in 2025 coincided with a 4% increase in flights into the country compared with 2024.”
Australia led the increase in visitor arrivals in 2025, up 136,500 (10%) from 2024. This was followed by the United States, up 15,200 (4%), and China, up 13,300 (5%).
“The inbound tourism sector looks to be humming,” said ASB’s Smith.
“While more than 80% of the annual increase in visitor numbers are from Australia, the lower NZD is expected to support visitor spending in New Zealand.”
The lower NZ dollar will also make that overseas trip that much more expensive for Kiwis, potentially providing further support to the local tourism sector as Kiwis holiday locally, he said.
Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the NZ Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.
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