Net migration turning from headwind to tailwind
Stats NZ reports a net migration gain of 14,200 in 2025, down from 23,800 in 2024 and the lowest calendar-year gain since 2013 (excluding 2021).
International migration spokesperson Bryan Downes (pictured right) notes, “Annual net migration fell from a record 135,500 in the October 2023 year to a provisional low of 8,600 in the August 2025 year, before increasing in late 2025.”
That late‑year turn is reinforced by ASB’s permanent and long‑term (PLT) data: December saw the strongest monthly net inflow since early 2024, with annualised net inflows over the last three months rising to 25,000 – the highest in 18 months.
Crucially for mortgage advisers, Smith points out that NZ citizen departures are cooling while non‑resident arrivals are strengthening, and argues that “the tide has turned.”
As 2026 progresses, strengthening net immigration is expected to ease one of the major drags on population growth, domestic demand, and the housing market.