Since the northern autumn, advisers sensitive to the persistent pinch of higher prices have urged Trump to modulate his tone on the economy by acknowledging the pain, blaming the conditions on former President Joe Biden and highlighting his efforts to tame inflation.
White House spokespeople and surrogates proved more faithful to that message than the President himself, who largely continued to insist that the economy was great and he deserved more credit.
Trump’s preference has now prevailed thanks to a record-high sharemarket, surprisingly strong January job numbers, and easing prices for petrol, groceries and housing.
“President Trump is absolutely right to celebrate inflation finally cooling and real wages finally growing for everyday American workers,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.
“While Biden downplayed and ignored this reality, President Trump has been focused on ending the Biden economic disaster since Day One with policies that work. That’s why inflation has cooled, real wages are up, and GDP growth has far surpassed expectations.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at about 50,000 points for the first time Tuesday (local time), and the S&P 500 is also trading at all-time highs. The economy added 130,000 jobs in January, more than double economists’ forecast.
A gallon (3.7 litres) of petrol averaged US$2.94 on Wednesday ($4.87), the lowest for this time of year since 2021, according to AAA.
And inflation in January dropped to a low last seen in May, before Trump raised tariffs.
“We’re hitting all-time-high stock numbers,” Trump said in a speech to troops at Fort Bragg in North Carolina.
“All I know is forget about the stock market, forget about Wall Street, your 401(k)s are doing very well. I don’t have to ask you, ‘Is anybody doing poorly with their 401(k)?’ If they were, you’re a pretty bad investor.”
The positive signs are unevenly felt, and skew towards the wealthy.
About 40% of adults in the US do not have a 401(k) or any other retirement savings account, according to a 2025 Gallup survey.
Consumer sentiment among people without shares remained near its lowest level since at least 2018, and the overall average was about 20% lower than in January 2025, according to the University of Michigan’s benchmark survey.
Desai said the sharemarket highs reflect pro-business policies that are driving investment and will create jobs and increase wages.
Most business spending and sharemarket increases are driven by investments in artificial intelligence by tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.
The US Capitol in Washington, DC, on January 31. The Republicans face tough Midterm elections in November, with the Democrats favoured to gain control of the House of Representatives. Photo / Aaron Schwartz, AFP
The data centres they’re building demand electricity and produce fewer jobs than traditional factories, and some members of Trump’s coalition such as Tucker Carlson argue that AI will reduce American jobs in the future.
Fifty-nine per cent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of their cost of living, 43% strongly, according to a Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted on January 23-25.
He performed better on employment and jobs, though half of respondents still disapproved. The survey found only 28% of Americans said the economy is on the right track.
White House officials also pointed to a four-year low in median national rents and a four-year high in the Intercontinental Exchange’s measure of mortgage affordability.
But those measures offer only a partial snapshot. To return to pre-pandemic affordability levels, household incomes would need to rise more than 15% while home prices remain flat, the exchange reported this month.
Grocery prices remain volatile, with some falling and others rising – a mix that has made day-to-day food costs uneven for consumers.
“I brought prices way down,” Trump said in response to a question from the Washington Post last week. “You don’t hear it anymore – when I first came in, the Democrats were screaming ‘affordability.’”
Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at the conservative Rasmussen Reports, has been critical of the Trump Administration’s emphasis on a surging sharemarket while young Americans are experiencing difficult job and housing markets.
“Let them eat S&P,” he wrote repeatedly on X in response to videos of Trump and top administration officials touting stock performance.
White House officials acknowledged that voters are hard to persuade about their own personal financial circumstances.
Since the start of the administration, economic advisers regularly met to focus on policy actions that would deliver benefits Americans would feel in time for the Midterms, one of the officials said. The White House was determined to adopt tax cuts earlier than in Trump’s first term to ensure refunds would begin reaching households in 2026.
The White House is also counting on more momentum, including interest rate cuts from Trump’s new pick to chair the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, and cheaper prescription drugs available through government-negotiated deals on a website called TrumpRx. The website currently lists 43 medications.
Desai said the Administration is working to add more pharmaceuticals from companies with existing deals and through negotiations with other drugmakers.
“There’s reason for some hope” now for Republicans in Congress, said Gregg Keller, a GOP strategist working for a super PAC supporting Texas Attorney-General Ken Paxton in the state’s Senate race.
“If the economy rolls this year and if voters give Trump and Republicans credit for it, that bodes well [for] us avoiding a drubbing in the elections.”
Voters say Trump’s economy is better than Biden’s, but they want to hear more about what the Administration is doing to ease everyday costs of living, according to Mitch Brown, a partner at the Republican polling firm Cygnal.
Only 30% of voters can handle an unexpected expense of US$1000 or more, heightening their anxiety, Brown said.
“President Trump knows this and his Administration is working to not only address these concerns with policy but getting the rest of the GOP to hit this message hard that we have done great work but will continue to fight hard to lower costs in the Midterms,” Brown said.
“Democrats don’t hold a majority of voters’ trust on a single issue, so the opportunity to keep the majority is well within the GOP’s grasp.”
Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican consultant specialising in polling, said while people with “substantial resources invested in the stock market” are satisfied with a surging Dow, the data suggest “most Americans are still not happy” with progress on inflation and the strength of the economy.
“Presidents who’ve done a good job capturing the sentiments of the American people are those who articulate a message that is consistent with what most people feel,” Ayres said.
“Bill Clinton was probably the best of anyone at that, but it’s very difficult to persuade Americans to believe something they’re not feeling in their daily lives.”
House Republicans need Trump to use the full weight of his presidency to make the case that his Administration has brought down the cost of living, said longtime GOP strategist Ron Bonjean.
“House Republicans are entering a really dangerous phase. They have to defy history. They need everything,” he said.
“They need a president who has the loudest megaphone in the country’s history.”
– Emily Davies contributed to this report.
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